Palestinian intifada and civil war with Israel on the outside bombing in. Fatah to hold onto what little power it has left through guns and tyranny. Israel's 60th anniversary exploited for popular support of militarism.
Expect carnage. Here's a roundup of what's been happening (though I'm far from omniscient, this is just what I picked up from news websites, radio and journalist friends):
Near Jenin a few days ago the PA police shot a 20 year old Palestinian guy twice in the back of the head. First they claimed he was shot as a bystander in a firefight with Islamic Jihad, then they said he was targetted as a member of IJ, then they said they don't know who he was. His family and others say he was on his way to work, and that he's not connected to any political organisations or factions.
Then in Jenin children were building stone barricades, against the PA police.
This year the Israeli state and Zionist institutions spent [I]a lot[/I] of money and energy building up a nationalist, militaristic fervour. This happens on a much smaller scale every independence day, but this was the 60th and is different. There are manipulative billboards all over the country (ie:
http://fredimellanostern.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/ynet-infor-israel-60-ar.jpg) and flags are hanging [I]everywhere.[/I] It's unpleasant to say the least.
Many people, including a famous and intelligent Palestinian whose name I can't remember, say that the next intifada will be against Fatah. Ever since the dissolution of the short-lived powersharing government of Fatah and Hamas, Fatah has been dividing into factions and losing support, many become disillusioned, and those in power have spent most of their energies subsidising their power in the West Bank: there've been so many reports of Hamas activists in the WB being arrested and tortured, the Palestinian prisons are filling up with political prisoners (mostly prominent or known activists in opposing factions), and a couple of weeks ago the PA (ie. Fatah) installed in Jenin a new armed police force of 200.
And as anyone in the West who follows this probably knows, there's talk all around of a cease-fire coming up between Israel and all Palestinian factions in Gaza [I]and[/I] in the West Bank.
Here's my theory of what will happen:
This new intifada will be triggered very soon, leading to heavy infighting within the West Bank (though not so much within Gaza, because Hamas is well-supported and people are not yet disillusioned with them), effectively a civil war. This will probably spread in some way (small or large I don't know) against the IDF, and Israel, benefitting greatly from the nationalist zeal floating around, will bomb the WB back to the stone-age.
They will be able to pass it off as self-defence because "we were just here peacefully celebrating our 60th and those violent Arabs over there went and started an intifada, just when we were about to sign the ceasefire too!"
Near Jenin a few days ago the PA police shot a 20 year old Palestinian guy twice in the back of the head. First they claimed he was shot as a bystander in a firefight with Islamic Jihad, then they said he was targetted as a member of IJ, then they said they don't know who he was. His family and others say he was on his way to work, and that he's not connected to any political organisations or factions.
Then in Jenin children were building stone barricades, against the PA police.
This year the Israeli state and Zionist institutions spent [I]a lot[/I] of money and energy building up a nationalist, militaristic fervour. This happens on a much smaller scale every independence day, but this was the 60th and is different. There are manipulative billboards all over the country (ie:
http://fredimellanostern.files.wordpress.com/2008/04/ynet-infor-israel-60-ar.jpg) and flags are hanging [I]everywhere.[/I] It's unpleasant to say the least. Many people, including a famous and intelligent Palestinian whose name I can't remember, say that the next intifada will be against Fatah. Ever since the dissolution of the short-lived powersharing government of Fatah and Hamas, Fatah has been dividing into factions and losing support, many become disillusioned, and those in power have spent most of their energies subsidising their power in the West Bank: there've been so many reports of Hamas activists in the WB being arrested and tortured, the Palestinian prisons are filling up with political prisoners (mostly prominent or known activists in opposing factions), and a couple of weeks ago the PA (ie. Fatah) installed in Jenin a new armed police force of 200.
And as anyone in the West who follows this probably knows, there's talk all around of a cease-fire coming up between Israel and all Palestinian factions in Gaza [I]and[/I] in the West Bank.
Here's my theory of what will happen:
This new intifada will be triggered very soon, leading to heavy infighting within the West Bank (though not so much within Gaza, because Hamas is well-supported and people are not yet disillusioned with them), effectively a civil war. This will probably spread in some way (small or large I don't know) against the IDF, and Israel, benefitting greatly from the nationalist zeal floating around, will bomb the WB back to the stone-age.
They will be able to pass it off as self-defence because "we were just here peacefully celebrating our 60th and those violent Arabs over there went and started an intifada, just when we were about to sign the ceasefire too!"
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