“The results from the survey are extremely alarming because they indicate that the international community is in serious trouble in Afghanistan .
Afghan men in the Canadian-controlled areas of Kandahar say they support the Taliban because of disillusionment with the NATO military effort and poverty created by the continuing conflict.
The report notes that the military effort to defeat the Taliban has eclipsed, and often undermined, the effort to improve living conditions for Afghans and rebuild their government and civil society.
Senlis Council’s Norine MacDonald QC. said:
“The results from the survey are extremely alarming because they indicate that the international community is in serious trouble in Afghanistan. A return of the Taliban into power would have grave consequences for both the people of Afghanistan and for global security.”
THE POLLIING
A team of 50 researchers polled 17,000 Afghan men in randomly selected districts in the Kandahar, Helmand and Nangarhar provinces of southeastern Afghanistan between March 3 and March 12. The Senlis Council is a Brussels-based think tank that began as a European drug-policy organization.
THE RESULTS
27% openly admitted to supporting the Taliban
3% supported Taliban in December 2005
The real figure the researchers suspect may be even higher than the survey indicates - Taliban supporters are wary of discussing the Taliban with Westerners.
48% were confident Afghan and NATO troops would be able to defeat the insurgents.
It notes that when U.S. troops first arrived at the end of 2001 and deposed the Taliban government, most Afghans believed the Taliban had been eliminated from the country.
Report: "[Local] populations' belief in one side's capacity for victory is just one step behind actually supporting that side. Who locals believe is going to win is often an important factor in that side's eventual victory."
49 % thought NATO would lose to the Taliban
“This is extremely disturbing – people are evenly split on this issue. Counter-insurgency theory shows us that local populations’ belief in one side’s capacity for victory is just one step behind actually supporting that side. Immediate steps must be taken to reverse this deadly trend.”
19% said foreign troops were helping them personally
In U.S. controlled regions it was only 6.5 per cent
71 % believed the Afghan government was also unhelpful.
80% were worried about feeding their families.
72 % of men in the region know how to fire a weapon
This makes them potential Taliban recruits - who are paid six times the average income.
“This is of particular concern because our research has shown that much of the support for the Taliban insurgency in southern Afghanistan is poverty driven.”
"People are hungry and angry, and when bombing campaigns level villages, it's not difficult to see how those facts come together."
The informal refugee camps of internally displaced people provide easy recruitment grounds for the Taliban. “The men in these camps are looking for work; they are desperate to feed their families. They are easy recruits for the Taliban. “
INTEGRITY WATCH AFGHANISTAN POLL
60 % believed it was the most corrupt government in two decades.
Since the fall of the Taliban – "corruption has soared to levels not seen in previous administrations."
Under Karzai, money "can buy government appointments, bypass justice or evade police" with impunity. Weak law enforcement was mainly to blame, said the group's executive director, Lorenzo Delesgues.
"Corruption has undermined the legitimacy of the state," he said yesterday in Kabul.
POLLING IN US-CONTROLLED AREA
52% wanted NATO to leave the country
88% believed the U.S. response to insurgent attacks was wrong.
6.5% said foreign troops were helping them personally
REPORT COMMENTARY
"Across the south, the majority of survey respondents both worry about being able to feed their families, and do not believe that the Afghan government and the international troops are helping them.
“Afghanis in southern Afghanistan are increasingly prepared to admit their support for the Taliban, and the belief that the government and the international community will not be able to defeat the Taliban is widespread in the southern provinces."
"The widespread perception of locals is that the international community is not helping to improve their lives. The Taliban has been able to easily and effectively capitalize on this by providing protection from forced eradication [of poppy crops] and employment to many."
"It is clear that the Taliban are winning the propaganda war. This victory is now having a direct effect on the war itself, through people's perceptions of who is going to win."
Norine MacDonald, Senlis's Canadian founder: "The military forces are doing a remarkable job in extremely difficult circumstances. But woefully inadequate aid and development, and misguided counter-narcotics policies, are turning people against them and making their work much more dangerous."
MILITARY INSTITUTE AGREES
The conclusions echo those of the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute, a more hawkish counterpart based in Calgary.
Both organizations have said the military component of the mission is falling behind because of inadequate humatarian efforts.
ESPRIT D’CORPS EDITOR AGREES
Maclean's Magazines Scott Taylor, who travelled with the Senlis Council in Kandahar earlier this year, says it's time for a comprehensive re-assessment of the Afghanistan mission's goals.
"The fact is, the military can't win this. Can they defeat the Taliban in every single engagement? If you go by body count, yes. But we've had our own [Major-General Andrew] Leslie say: Each time we kill one it makes a martyr and that makes 15 more recruits. "The longer we're there, the more that we kill, the more it becomes us versus them."
According to Taylor, even the reconstruction efforts have been somewhat misguided. By trying to re-shape Afghan society as quickly as possible, he said, Canadian efforts have often proven incompatible with local customs and been rejected outright.
RECOMMENDATIONS
“We have made a series of recommendations which we believe could help reverse this trend and we are urging the international community to immediately rebalance its tactics in Afghanistan. The main role of the international community in Afghanistan is to provide support for President Karzai’s government and many of the approaches being used mean our own policies are empowering our enemies. ”
1) Development has been sorely under funded; (Military spending 2002-2006 outpaces development spending by 900%) An aid surge is needed;
2) Eradication must stop Forced poppy-crop eradication has robbed many of their only means of survival.
3) Replace current counter-productive drug policies with pragmatic initiatives such as poppy for medicine projects. An approach to poppy cultivation that takes ordinary farmers’ needs into account by licensing opium production for medicinal purposes would help boost support for President Karzai and to trigger economic diversification;
4) Implement pilot poppy for medicine projects at the next planting season. Licenses for existing poppy crops for medicine should be issued to those farms that embrace and demonstrate a transition to crop diversification. This long-term counter-narcotics strategy has to be developed locally in order to have the ownership required for success
5) Military interventions have caused many civilian casualties. Avoiding civilian injury must be a priority in all military action in Afghanistan.
SOURCES:
Senlis Council News Release
Not welcome - Survey suggests Afghanis are wary of NATO troops
Afghans rejecting Canadian troops for Taliban, survey finds
Losing Afghan hearts, minds
=======================================================================
Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Instititute report: Work with -not against- Taliban
One of the experts that we asked about how many troops would be needed for a military victory said, 'Oh, maybe half a million.' So adding a couple of thousand is wonderful but it doesn't do anything."
Privy Council Report: Vast majority still struggle for the "bare essentials of survival"
The bleak forecast of the heavily censored report is at odds with recent claims by other Canadian officials
It says the vast majority of the population still struggles for the "bare essentials of survival," just as they did in the days of the Taliban
Canadian Senate Report on Afghanistan - Condensed
The Committee was impressed by the optimism of Canadian troops and their leaders ... but ... we found it hard to square that with reality.
CIDA has a number of projects underway, but no one was able to show us. Journalists say they have seen some evidence of useful programs, but these appear to be limited.
If our only mission is to distract the Taliban while our allies make progress on other fronts ... this hasn’t been properly explained to Canadians.
Where Canada is trying to have its biggest impact – in Kandahar – life is clearly more perilous because we are there.
Afghan government officials are notoriously corrupt at all levels. It is a pipe dream to believe that this deep-seated tradition will go away overnight.
Anyone expecting to see the emergence in Afghanistan within the next several decades of a recognizable modern democracy ... is dreaming in Technicolor.
Our former former Ambassador to Afghanistan , Chris Alexander, said it would take 5 generations of effort to make a difference in Afghanistan .
State Dept Report: Human Rights in Afghanistan
[COMMENT: This extract focuses on the action of government officials – an evil read.]
A Soldier Reflects: We're Still Dying in Afghanistan
[COMMENT: This is a letter by a Canadian related to a dead soldier – who fought as a Soviet in Afghanistan . Supplemental material here is very much worth reading.]
Afghan Instability: A Scorched Earth Geo-Political Strategy
[COMMENT: The author of the article is discussing the reason a trans-Afghan pipeline has not been built.]
Some of the possible reasons for US’s wish continued instability, are as follows:
1- governments of Turkmenistan and Pakistan are risky countries for US energy security
2- instability is the “justification” of US existence in the region
3- instability impedes regional cooperation projects
4- instability will continue regional “energy security” problems and maintain Indian and regional dependence on US
5- instability will sustain the high energy costs and so, slow development in the region
6- the Iran problem has not been solved yet
Comments
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24.03.2007 00:48
No one should believe that the Canadian government was not aware of the consequences of its policies regarding prisoners in Afghanistan or that it is merely a matter of incompetence on the part of a few individuals. Such policies are consistent with the overriding project of the current government to more forcefully assert the interests of Canadian capital on the world stage—a shift that requires habituating its citizens to the violent realities of war.
New Zealand government announces extension of Afghanistan military operations
New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark announced last week that the country’s military intervention in Afghanistan will be extended until September 2008. The latest deployment of a 120-strong Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) in Bamiyan province and other military postings follows a similar 12-month extension announced last April.
Warmongers hang out in Washington DC: Helen Clark visits the US
As the fifth year of the occupation of Iraq approaches, the United States is busily re-evaluating its military strategy there and elsewhere. On the eve of Helen Clark's visit to the US, will the Labour Government take the opportunity to re-evaluate New Zealand's military relationship with the Bush administration?
From the newswire
Afghan troops kill scores of Taliban
24.03.2007 01:07
Taliban attacks convoy in Afghanistan, kills 17
Taliban militants attacked a convoy delivering supplies to foreign troops in southern Afghanistan Friday, killing 17 Afghan security guards and drivers, their commander said.
Parrot Press
Savings on education budget
24.03.2007 12:02
teacher
Our Illegal War
24.03.2007 14:42
Who knows how many thousands less people the country has, period.
And remember, when you read "the Taliban" in our tightly-controlled press, most of the time, this simply means "The Afghan Resistance", which is legitimate under International Law, and is nothing like the Taliban, just people fighting to liberate themselves.
Canadian Troops Betrayed By Harper Government
Aust: Govt to fund $30m War Force recruitment campaign
25.03.2007 02:33
Parrot Press
Australia: Nelson flags more special forces troops for Afghanistan
25.03.2007 08:13
Dr Nelson says it is likely more soldiers will be deployed to Oruzgan province and the Government is close to making a final decision.
The Minister will travel to Canada early next month to hold talks with his British counterpart, the US Defence Secretary and defence ministers from other countries with troops in southern Afghanistan.
He has told Channel Nine that Taliban forces are expected to mount a strong offensive shortly.
"If we do redeploy, it will be a special forces task group," Dr Nelson said.
"I can assure you we will make sure that every one of those men and women who support them will have the full protection and support, as best we can, to minimise any risk to them."
===========================
Special forces are good for building churches? Undermine, the effort of improved living conditions for Afghans and rebuild their government and civil society?
Parrot Press
23 Taliban killed in Afghanistan clashes
25.03.2007 22:19
I suppose the new term "Afghan Army" serves the purpose of legitimising the conflict? Well don't fall for it I say! Because it's rubbish. The Puppet Monster is the USA and the Coalition of the NATO Killing! Therefore the "Afghan Army is the very same Monster! What are they doing? Killing people!
Parrot Press
US army sweep kills 99 resistance in four days
26.03.2007 21:35
Related:
Afghan army propaganda!
Parrot Press
what about 17,000 women
28.03.2007 16:36
Ok, geniuses, what about 17,000 women?
Also you can't go anywhere without protection in Southern Afghanistan, and they expect us to believe 50 researchers just went around asking questions without a hitch?
Lies, damnned lies and statistics.
ANTI-ZIWG