The US military death toll in Iraq is continuing to speed up.
It has been more or less steadily increasing since May 2003.
The last six months are all at or above the linear fit, suggesting
that the death rate might even be increasing faster than linear.
It has been more or less steadily increasing since May 2003.
The last six months are all at or above the linear fit, suggesting
that the death rate might even be increasing faster than linear.
A linear regression based on data from 
http://icasualties.org/oif/ conservatively shows a continuing steady increase in the rate of killing US military occupants in Iraq.
This trend is robust: there are fluctuations above and below the best linear fit, presumably related to events like the capturing of Saddam Hussein, the alleged transition of power to an Iraqi puppet government, and so on, but the average trend shows no sign of slowing down.
Moreover, the numbers of deaths in the last six months are all very close to the linear fit or well above the linear fit: this suggests that the death rate might be caught in a positive feedback loop and have entered an exponential growth phase. For example, the more US soldiers are killed, the more desperate the leadership like Cheney and Rumsfeld become, and the more nervous become the soldiers, so they make more mistakes, and therefore more and more soldiers are killed, which in turn causes more nervousness and errors still, and the positive feedback loop takes off.
Linear and exponential growth have very different implications.
The present linear trend suggests that the total number of US military dead in Iraq will only be about 5000 by the end of 2007 (prediction: 5500 by end of 2007 - this assumes that the Cheney-Rumsfeld regime does not collapse earlier than this).
Exponential growth would predict many more, 10,000, or 100,000, but saturation effects would most probably occur before such large results could be attained. For example, unless the draft is reinstated, the total troop numbers cannot sustainably go much above 150,000.
http://icasualties.org/oif/ conservatively shows a continuing steady increase in the rate of killing US military occupants in Iraq. This trend is robust: there are fluctuations above and below the best linear fit, presumably related to events like the capturing of Saddam Hussein, the alleged transition of power to an Iraqi puppet government, and so on, but the average trend shows no sign of slowing down.
Moreover, the numbers of deaths in the last six months are all very close to the linear fit or well above the linear fit: this suggests that the death rate might be caught in a positive feedback loop and have entered an exponential growth phase. For example, the more US soldiers are killed, the more desperate the leadership like Cheney and Rumsfeld become, and the more nervous become the soldiers, so they make more mistakes, and therefore more and more soldiers are killed, which in turn causes more nervousness and errors still, and the positive feedback loop takes off.
Linear and exponential growth have very different implications.
The present linear trend suggests that the total number of US military dead in Iraq will only be about 5000 by the end of 2007 (prediction: 5500 by end of 2007 - this assumes that the Cheney-Rumsfeld regime does not collapse earlier than this).
Exponential growth would predict many more, 10,000, or 100,000, but saturation effects would most probably occur before such large results could be attained. For example, unless the draft is reinstated, the total troop numbers cannot sustainably go much above 150,000.
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dying like flies
29.01.2005 01:01
yuk
Most of them are working class kids
29.01.2005 13:14
Most of the US service men are working class kids, I saw an interveiw with a nineteen year old black girl
who was driving a truck into Iran from Syria on a very dangerous mission all on her own.
She was asked how many runs she had made "errr well actually this is my first I was told too keep
my head down and go fast" I wonder what percentage of the US casualties are black, hispanic and other
non white persons .. ??
remember
We are winning in Iraq
30.01.2005 13:07
Also I don't know why the left in the west has allied itself with the so called "Iraqi Resistance" who kidnap and kill innocent civilians such as Ken Biglgley and Margret Hassan - a woman who spent 30 years helping the Iraqi people. And who target United Nations and Red Cross personell. And who bomb civilian Iraqi buildings such as police stations, and hospitals. The so called "Iraqi Resistance" are nothing more that anti-democratic reactionary forces who want to take Iraq back to the dark ages, the vast majority of Iraqi people strongly reject the so called resistance!
Micheal
Face facts
30.01.2005 17:37
This filthy band of islamo-thugs has managed to kill more Iraqi civilians than it has occupation troops. Yet you greet every new 'triumph' of theirs as if they had freed the world of imperialism.
Face the truth, this ragtag grpoup of bearded wife-beaters is gettign shredded on a daily basis, and their members are left on teh streets- food for stray dogs in Falluja.
Iraqis have made their choice clear- we want to be rid of the mopre regressive tyranny first (that's the islamo-thugs, for those MAB lovers who don't know what regressive means), and then we will think about the occupation.
As usual, the (politically) semi-educated leaders of the left have led them to cheer for Galloway, Hizb Ut-Tahrir and other collaborators with terrorism, at the expense of the Iraqi in the street.
Abu Burkan
Abu Burkan and Micheal - Human Scum
31.01.2005 18:25
Haidar
logical
18.02.2005 19:11
Abu Burkan