Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel-OPT, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ug anda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations ~ None

January 2010 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alert ~ None

Conflict Resolution Opportunity ~ None

Guinea: Junta leader Dadis Camara 3 Dec shot and wounded by senior presidential guard member Aboubacar “Toumba” Diakité at military HQ in Conakry. Camara flown to Morocco 4 Dec for treatment amid speculation he was seriously injured, denied by ruling CNDD. Diakité 16 Dec admitted shooting, citing moves by Camara to blame him for Sept massacre. Dozens arrested in connection with shooting, also reports of killings and torture. Defence Minister Konaté took up temporary leadership of junta, 9 Dec urged military unity. Talks between junta and regional leaders resumed 13 Dec after hiatus, but without breakthrough. Opposition coalition Forces Vives continued strong criticism of Burkinabe president Compaoré’s mediation. Police 29 Dec announced all 12 soldiers jailed Dec 2008 for resisting Camara coup had been released.

Iran: Political crisis deepened as anti-govt demonstrations and accompanying security crackdown intensified late month. At least 8 killed 27 Dec, including nephew of opposition leader Musavi, when security forces fired on large protests in Tehran and other cities marking Shiite holy day Ashura. Govt 30 Dec held rallies denouncing opposition. In 1 Jan statement, Musavi proposed points for resolution of conflict including reformed election law, media freedoms, release of detainees. Early month student protests held around Student Day 7 Dec; after state TV alleged protesters tore pictures of Ayatollah Khomeini, govt supporters held counter-demonstrations 12-14, 18 Dec. Tens of thousands, including opposition leaders, attended 21 Dec protest/mourning rally in Qom for funeral of senior dissident cleric Montazeri.

Madagascar:  Prospects for negotiated solution to leadership crisis deteriorated. Former presidents Zafy, Ratsiraka and Ravalomanana met in Maputo 3-8 Dec under auspices of SADC-appointed mediator Joaquim Chissano, issuing resolutions distributing ministerial portfolios between parties. De facto leader Rajoelina boycotted negotiations, alleged moves tantamount to coup, rejected further power-sharing talks and announced he could not guarantee the 3 former leaders’ security in Madagascar. Rajoelina 18 Dec issued “presidential decree” firing consensus PM, naming loyal army colonel in his place and annulling previous power-sharing accords. Followed by anti-Rajoelina protests outside National Assembly. U.S. 23 Dec announced trade benefits to Madagascar, under African Growth and Opportunity Act, terminated along with Guinea and Niger over “undemocratic transfers of power”. 

Nepal: Tensions between govt and Maoists increased as Maoists called 3-day general strike across Nepal from 20 Dec, paralysing business, infrastructure in largest protests since leaving govt in May; UN OHCHR said police used “excessive force” in Kathmandu clashes with Maoist protestors. Maoist leader Prachanda 22 Dec threatened indefinite resumption of strike if new unity govt not formed before 24 Jan; PM Madhav Nepal rejected demands, but said open to including Maoists in his cabinet. Maoists declared 13 districts as “autonomous states”; govt rejected as unconstitutional. Earlier, Maoists called 6 Dec general strike after at least 3 killed in 4 Dec clashes between police and illegal forest squatters in Kailali District. UN 16 Dec said some 4,000 disqualified Maoist combatants held in UN cantonments, including 3,000 child soldiers, to be released from 7 Jan.

Nigeria: Up to 70 killed in northern city Bauchi 28 Dec in clashes between Islamic religious sect Yan Kala Kato and police, reportedly after group broke ban on open-air preaching; details and death toll unclear, ICRC say most victims children. At least 30 killed in separate mid-month land clashes in central Nasarawa State. Intense debate over President Yar’Adua’s capacity to govern and potential political vacuum following his hospitalisation in Saudi Arabia late Nov. Niger Delta peace process looked increasingly fragile. Military Joint Task Force early month declared definitive end to conflict, 15 Dec announced it had destroyed 600 illegal cottage refineries. But peace talks stalled following Yar’Adua’s hospitalisation, and dominant militant group MEND 14 Dec stated President’s absence put ceasefire “at risk”.

Yemen: Heavy fighting between govt forces and Houthi-led rebels continued in Saada province. Rebels claimed over 120 civilians killed in Razeh district by Saudi airstrikes 13, 20 Dec; reported death toll, Saudi responsibility not independently verified. Govt 20 Dec claimed rebel leader Abd al-Malik al-Houthi seriously injured. Al-Houthi 2 Jan welcomed President Saleh’s call for ceasefire if govt operations stopped; rebels also called for talks with Saudi govt 31 Dec. Yemen-based al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) group claimed responsibility for 25 Dec attempted bombing of U.S. airliner by Nigerian. U.S., UK 3 Jan announced increase in funding for counter-terrorism in Yemen, closed embassies after reported al-Qaeda threat. Authorities reported air and ground strikes 17 Dec in Arhab, north of capital, and southern Abyan province killed 34 members of AQAP; 30 AQAP members, including senior figures, killed 24 Dec in further airstrike, Shabwa province.


CrisisWatch N°77, 4 January 2010
 http://tinyurl.com/CrisisWatch-N-77