Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Israel launched massive air raid on Gaza 27 Dec and ground incursion 3 Jan, leaving over 500 Palestinians reported dead; Hamas rocket fire in response struck deep into Israel. Ongoing hostilities risk further escalation. Israeli assault followed intensified Palestinian rocket fire and increase in cross-border fighting, before and after 19 Dec expiration of six-month ceasefire. Many Hamas security personnel, some senior leaders, many civilians among dead. 4 Israelis killed by rocket attacks, 1 soldier in ground incursion. Egypt refused calls, including by Hizbollah, to open Rafah border, conditioning re-opening on Palestinian Authority (PA) control; some ambulances, wounded crossed. Israeli action drew mass protests across much of Muslim world, many Western countries. UN, EU, U.S. and Russia 30 Dec called for immediate ceasefire, but U.S. said Hamas to halt rocket fire first. Arab League 31 Dec demanded immediate end to Israeli military operations, blockade. UNSC debate 31 Dec ended without vote on draft resolution – meeting again 5 Jan. Israel 15 Dec released 224 mainly Fatah prisoners to West Bank. PA President Abbas 16 Dec called for resumption of Hamas-Fatah talks stalled by Nov Hamas boycott. Hardline Israeli settlers rioted in Hebron after Israeli police evicted 250 settlers from disputed building 4 Dec. Crisis Group's report, Ending the War in Gaza, published today, provides full analysis of the situation, which threatens to escalate further.

Guinea, Death of President Conté 22 Dec followed hours later by bloodless coup led by Captain Moussa Dadis Camara and group of junior officers from new political grouping, National Council for Democracy and Development (CNDD), sparking fears over impact on national and regional stability. Camara announced replacement of senior military command and local officials, appointed civilian Kabine Komara as PM of new transitional govt, pledged elections for 2010 and to tackle rampant corruption – meeting with apparently significant popular support. Several senior politicians, including ex-PM Souré, and military leaders backed coup despite early signs of disunity. Army in show of force launched armed raids on residency of 2 senior Conté aides 28-29 Dec. U.S. condemned coup; AU 29 Dec suspended Guinea’s membership, threatened sanctions and demanded return to constitutional order. Senegalese President Wade 23 Dec endorsed new leadership. CNDD delegation end Dec visited Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Sierra Leone to solicit support.

Kashmir, Continued escalations in tensions between India and Pakistan in wake of Nov Mumbai attacks: Pakistan announced redeployment of some troops from tribal areas to Line of Control and international border, but both sides stressed did not want war. Reported airspace violations by Indian aircraft 12-13 Dec, but President Zardari explained as “technical incursion”. Indian FM Mukherjee 22 Dec called Pakistani militants "greatest danger to peace and security” in world. Although composite dialogue put on hold, New Delhi and Islamabad shared information on nuclear programs 2 Jan in rare goodwill gesture. Phased elections in Indian-administered Kashmir, which began 17 Nov, ended 24 Dec with 60% overall turnout amid heavy security crackdown and clashes between security forces and separatists.

DR Congo, Situation in Orientale Province deteriorated sharply: up to 500 killed, villages looted, thousands displaced by suspected LRA rebels fleeing 14 Dec military operation by DRC, S Sudan, Uganda to root out rebels from Garamba National Park. In east, Oct CNDP ceasefire largely held, but increasingly tenuous end Dec: talks in Nairobi between govt, CNDP hit deadlock 21 Dec as CNDP refused to recommit to ceasefire and threatened to advance into UN buffer zone, citing incursions by army and Rwandan Hutu FDLR. Talks earlier stalled over CNDP leader Nkunda’s “national ambitions”. Negotiations set to resume 7 Jan. DRC, Rwandan FMs early Dec agreed joint plan to combat FDLR. UN expert panel 12 Dec alleged DRC, Rwandan support for eastern rebel groups amounted to “proxy war”. EU 8 Dec failed to approve EU bridging force, as requested by UNSG Ban Ki-moon, ahead of UN reinforcements. UNSC 22 Dec renewed MONUC mandate.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain , Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire , Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations
Bangladesh, Taiwan Strait

Conflict Risk Alert for January 2009
Israel/Occupied Palestnian Territories, Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunities January 2009
Burundi, Central African Republic, Somalia
For January 2009, CrisisWatch identifies the situation in Somalia as both a Conflict Risk Alert and a Conflict Resolution Opportunity. The resignation of President Yusuf and the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the country may further undermine stability and hasten the government‚s collapse. But Yusuf‚s departure, which followed international pressure on him to step down after he came to be regarded as an obstacle to peace, and the exit of Ethiopian troops may yet promote movement towards inclusive peace in the country.

The situation in the Central African Republic also presents a Conflict Resolution Opportunity, following a 20 December peace accord on formation of a new unity government, as does the situation in Burundi, where rebel group Palipehutu-FNL‚s decision to drop its ethnic name may open the door for long-awaited progress on implementation of the 2006 peace deal.

Download the full report: cw65.pdf

CrisisWatch N°65, 5 January 2009