Heathrow 3rd runway postponement
Stroppyoldgit | 11.12.2008 01:30 | Analysis | Climate Chaos
The decision on the Heathrow 3rd runway was expected next week, but has now been postponed “until next year”. What’s going on?
Plane Stupid suggest there may be a “seismic split” in the cabinet on the issue. Maybe. Who knows?
Their other theory is that with judicial review proceedings by various councils and maybe other opponents likely, Geoff Hoon (the minister allegedly “responsible”) wants to make sure his decision-making process and drafting are watertight. Well, Hoon is certainly a plonker and a half but it’s a bit hard to believe he and his civil servants haven’t already have got the decision as JR-proof as possible. Were they made a pig’s ear of it until Brown or somebody banged the desk and told them to go and do their homework again? Possible -anything is with this lot- but not highly likely.
Is there a genuine change of mind going on, perhaps by one cabinet faction, as the rumours have it? Certainly, the recession “which nobody could have predicted” * makes it less “urgent” in the government’s and aviation industry’s terms to get things moving now. On the other hand, the runway project would be just the sort of Keynsian public works fix Brown keeps talking about. Two birds with one stone! Whatever may or may not be going on in the bowels of NuLabour there's certainly a party split, if not a cabinet one. But I’m not holding my breath.
The third possibility is that this is a straw in the wind for a spring election. I will now take my anarchist hat off and try to think like a politician. There are only three available windows left; spring/early summer 2009, autumn 2009, or spring 2010. The last one would have to be before 5th May and can be ignored. Governments which leave it down to the wire always lose. Brown remembers 1979 and isn’t that stupid. Of the two others, he must be tempted to plump for next spring as the time when things look like being least bad for Labour.
Around Heathrow, the constituencies affected by the 3rd runway aren’t all Windsor & Eton stylee. There’s a whole clutch of marginal seats to the north and east of the airport. The Tories are opposing the 3rd runway but haven’t, as far as I know, promised to reverse any decision to go ahead with it, which is much more problematic. Whether they could or not depends on when an election happens –and them winning it, of course. If it’s next spring, they possibly still could.
If Labour announces a decision to go ahead before a spring election, they’d be seriously shredded by the Tories and Lib Dems in the affected constituencies. The least damaging position for them is to say “Oh no, we haven’t made any decision yet. We’re considering things very carefully and making sure all points of view are taken fully into account because we’re such nice sensitive, touchy-feely, democrats…what do YOU think…lots of jobs…blah blah blah.”
If Labour wins, though, I bet they’d find the necessary “mandate” in their soup (recession permitting) very shortly afterwards. Don’t vote for any of ‘em, I say, but it’s sometimes worth thinking through their knickers-on-head perspective for a few minutes.
Only a few minutes, mind, there’s resistance to plan!
* I quote the crap spouted by one of my local NuLabour twits recently.
Their other theory is that with judicial review proceedings by various councils and maybe other opponents likely, Geoff Hoon (the minister allegedly “responsible”) wants to make sure his decision-making process and drafting are watertight. Well, Hoon is certainly a plonker and a half but it’s a bit hard to believe he and his civil servants haven’t already have got the decision as JR-proof as possible. Were they made a pig’s ear of it until Brown or somebody banged the desk and told them to go and do their homework again? Possible -anything is with this lot- but not highly likely.
Is there a genuine change of mind going on, perhaps by one cabinet faction, as the rumours have it? Certainly, the recession “which nobody could have predicted” * makes it less “urgent” in the government’s and aviation industry’s terms to get things moving now. On the other hand, the runway project would be just the sort of Keynsian public works fix Brown keeps talking about. Two birds with one stone! Whatever may or may not be going on in the bowels of NuLabour there's certainly a party split, if not a cabinet one. But I’m not holding my breath.
The third possibility is that this is a straw in the wind for a spring election. I will now take my anarchist hat off and try to think like a politician. There are only three available windows left; spring/early summer 2009, autumn 2009, or spring 2010. The last one would have to be before 5th May and can be ignored. Governments which leave it down to the wire always lose. Brown remembers 1979 and isn’t that stupid. Of the two others, he must be tempted to plump for next spring as the time when things look like being least bad for Labour.
Around Heathrow, the constituencies affected by the 3rd runway aren’t all Windsor & Eton stylee. There’s a whole clutch of marginal seats to the north and east of the airport. The Tories are opposing the 3rd runway but haven’t, as far as I know, promised to reverse any decision to go ahead with it, which is much more problematic. Whether they could or not depends on when an election happens –and them winning it, of course. If it’s next spring, they possibly still could.
If Labour announces a decision to go ahead before a spring election, they’d be seriously shredded by the Tories and Lib Dems in the affected constituencies. The least damaging position for them is to say “Oh no, we haven’t made any decision yet. We’re considering things very carefully and making sure all points of view are taken fully into account because we’re such nice sensitive, touchy-feely, democrats…what do YOU think…lots of jobs…blah blah blah.”
If Labour wins, though, I bet they’d find the necessary “mandate” in their soup (recession permitting) very shortly afterwards. Don’t vote for any of ‘em, I say, but it’s sometimes worth thinking through their knickers-on-head perspective for a few minutes.
Only a few minutes, mind, there’s resistance to plan!
* I quote the crap spouted by one of my local NuLabour twits recently.
Stroppyoldgit
