Tibet: Protest turned violent on 14 March and unrest spread to Tibetan-populated areas of neighbouring provinces, prompting the deployment of thousands of police. Casualty numbers were difficult to verify after foreign media access was heavily restricted; Beijing said there were 22 deaths, while the Tibetan government in exile said over 140.

Kosovo: Violence in Mitrovica and Serb efforts to partition underscored fragility of post-independence situation. UNMIK, KFOR forces 17 March conducted operation to remove demonstrators occupying Mitrovica regional court, arrested 53 and attempted transfer to Pristina. Well-organised Serb protestors attacked troops - gunfire, grenade attacks left 1 UN police dead, up to 180 police and protesters injured. UNMIK forces briefly withdrew, returned to north 19 March.

Iraq: Hundreds killed since government mounted operation 25 March against Shiite militias in Basra. PM Maliki initiated crackdown involving some 30,000 Iraqi troops and police; U.S., British forces provided support; President Bush praised action. Fighting appeared to subside after 30 March call by radical Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr for "end to armed appearances", halt to government raids. Violence in Baghdad left over 100 dead; thousands demonstrated in Sadr City neighbourhood. 3-day curfew ended 31 March, amid bombing of fortified Green Zone - also hit 23 March with at least 15 killed; U.S. said rockets supplied by Iranian Quds Force. Violent clashes set off in Kut, Hilla, Diwaniya - scores dead. Suicide strike in Mosul 23 March killed some 40. Bombing in Karbala 17 March killed over 50.

Armenia: Severe internal crisis with police crackdown 1-2 March on protest against 19 Feb presidential election results: 8 dead and at least 100 detained including MPs, opposition figures. State of emergency lifted 21 March, but police prevented daily peaceful rallies and continued arrests, intimidations. In 17 March emergency session, parliament approved constitutional changes to allow government restriction of mass gatherings. Constitutional court 9 March rejected opposition claims of rigged elections. 4 of 5 parties in parliament signed coalition agreement ahead of 9 Apr PM Sarkisian inauguration as president.

DR Congo: Focus shifted to west, as government violently suppressed separatists in Bas-Congo: some 100 killed in 3 weeks, including many civilians; figures disputed. The early-March police clashes in Luozi with supporters of ethno-religious Bundu dia Kongo (BDK) movement quickly spread; MONUC took week to send peacekeepers. Government banned BDK 21 March. Eastern peace fragile: Mai Mai faction PARECO withdrew from Goma peace deal commissions 28 March as General Nkunda's CNDP rebels promised to rejoin ceasefire commission following Feb walk-out. 15 March disarmament deadline for Hutu FDLR rebels passed; government threatened forcible disarmament,

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan): Worst violations of 1994 ceasefire in years: Armenian, Azeri forces clashed at border 4-9 March leaving up to 16 soldiers, 2 civilians dead. UN General Assembly adopted Azerbaijan-drafted resolution 14 March calling for "immediate, complete and unconditional" withdrawal of Armenian forces; OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs opposed resolution as "unbalanced". Armenian President Kocharyan threatened 20 March to recognise region.

North Korea: Tensions increased amid inflammatory rhetoric and military activity: Pyongyang 30 March threatened to reduce South to "ashes" after South Korea military chief Kim Tae-young 26 March said Seoul would launch pre-emptive strike on suspected DPRK nuclear weapons site if Pyongyang preparing attack. Moves followed declaration by U.S. envoy Christopher Hill 19 March that DPRK not ready to make complete nuclear declaration;

Somalia: Islamist-led insurgency escalated outside Mogadishu, with hit-and-run attacks on key strategic towns - 11 killed 30 March in Buulo Burte attack, 7 soldiers killed in 26 March Jowhar raid; humanitarian situation continued to deteriorate. In Mogadishu: some 20 killed as Ethiopian troop shelled Bakara market 29 March after presidential compound mortared during President

Zimbabwe: Early results of 29 March presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections were strongly disputed, underlining the risk that escalated repression and unrest may follow but also highlighting the possibility of positive change. As CrisisWatch went to press, reports suggested President Mugabe was under pressure from close associates to resign and/or negotiate a transfer of power.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Israel/Occupied Territories, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nepal, Niger, Nigeria North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Peru, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia), Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: Comoros Islands, Cyprus, Pakistan, Taiwan Strait
The situation improved in Cyprus as President Christofias and Turkish Cypriot leader Talat met in Nicosia for the first time, where they agreed to open the Ledra border crossing and begin preparations for formal reunification talks. In Pakistan, new Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani ordered the release of several members of the judiciary, including former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, amid a relatively peaceful political transition after February's elections. In the Comoros Islands, the government, backed by African Union troops, restored control over rebel-held Anjouan island quickly and with little resistance. The situation also improved in the Taiwan Strait following the election of Ma Ying-jeou as President, who pledged to improve relations with China.

Conflict Risk Alerts for April
Nepal, Zimbabwe

Conflict Resolution Opportunities for April
Cyprus, Nepal, Uganda, Zimbabwe

CrisisWatch N°56, 1 April 2008
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5368&l=1


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