Progress in Iraq: up to 80 US dead/month and rising
progress? | 23.09.2007 19:47 | Iraq | Terror War
There were individual high peaks at around 150/month during the massacre of civilians in Falluja ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Phantom_Fury ) and following the 2004 US presidential presidential election ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_U.S._presidential_election_controversy_and_irregularities ) which could be expected to give an average rate roughly constant or decreasing. However, despite these 2004 high peaks, the linear regression fit over the past 54 months gives a positive growth rate.
The number N of US state terrorists killed per month can be estimated as:
N = 36.5 + 11.1 * (y - 2003.25)
where y is the fractional year, e.g. 1 January 2003 is 2003.0, 1 July 2007 is 2007.5, etc.
This fit makes no assumptions about political changes in the US such as the "surge" or withdrawal of the "surge": this fit averages over all 54 months from May 2003 to September 2007.
The prediction for the average number of US state terrorists (so-called "our troops") killed per month by the end of 2008 is:
N = 36.5 + 11.1 * (2008.99 - 2003.25) = 100
Progress? Yes, but not quite in the way "General Betray Us" stated it.
progress?
Homepage:
http://icasualties.org/oif
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