Remember the Tsunami?
Paul | 17.12.2006 11:07 | Oxford
The epicenter was very near Aceh, north Sumatra, Indonesia. Now you have a vague idea where Aceh is I will give you a little background and a basic assessment of the political situation. The reason is mainly that I am now working in Aceh. Does not receive the same international gaze as Afghanistan but that can change and perhaps I can bring it on to a few peoples radar.
Brief background (copied)
After seven months of peace talks the government of Indonesia (GoI) and GAM (Indonesian fighters) signed a historic peace treaty aimed at ending nearly 30 years of fighting in the oil- and gas-rich province that has killed over 12,000 people and devastated the Aceh economy, affecting upwards of 4.2 million people. The tsunami and earthquake of December 26, 2004 decimated a region already traumatized by the civil war. One unexpected consequence of the disaster was that it created a climate in which to reinvigorate the peace process, which had been stalled since the breakdown of the Cessation of Hostilities Act (CoHA) in 2003. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the two parties on August 15, 2005 puts forth commitments and expectations aimed to build trust and confidence during the upcoming months.
Only just trying to get a grip on the politics plus the job but this is my analysis for what it’s worth. GAM won the recent local elections. 2nd Jan for final announcement but been told by people who seem to know that GAM has won. The new Turks. Iwandi and Hasan have taken governor and deputy governor positions. GAM seems to be split between the old and the new. Seeing the NDI presentation it seems to be a vote for honesty and change. Unfortunately Irwandi was trying to set a base for 2009 and was more surprised than most to win. He is unfamiliar with the system he has to work within. We will see if he makes the usual oath and kisses the flag when inaugurated. He has the BRR (coordinates reconstruction from governor’s office) money to play with and that is allocated to the poorest areas which is his power base which means he will be able to reward his supporters legitimately. Usual problem of people expecting change fast. Interesting to see what Jakarta will do. From their perspective the enemy has won. They could cause insecurity and then move the military in to restore calm but the Indonesian government may not take this route. Next year will be very interesting.
After seven months of peace talks the government of Indonesia (GoI) and GAM (Indonesian fighters) signed a historic peace treaty aimed at ending nearly 30 years of fighting in the oil- and gas-rich province that has killed over 12,000 people and devastated the Aceh economy, affecting upwards of 4.2 million people. The tsunami and earthquake of December 26, 2004 decimated a region already traumatized by the civil war. One unexpected consequence of the disaster was that it created a climate in which to reinvigorate the peace process, which had been stalled since the breakdown of the Cessation of Hostilities Act (CoHA) in 2003. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed between the two parties on August 15, 2005 puts forth commitments and expectations aimed to build trust and confidence during the upcoming months.
Only just trying to get a grip on the politics plus the job but this is my analysis for what it’s worth. GAM won the recent local elections. 2nd Jan for final announcement but been told by people who seem to know that GAM has won. The new Turks. Iwandi and Hasan have taken governor and deputy governor positions. GAM seems to be split between the old and the new. Seeing the NDI presentation it seems to be a vote for honesty and change. Unfortunately Irwandi was trying to set a base for 2009 and was more surprised than most to win. He is unfamiliar with the system he has to work within. We will see if he makes the usual oath and kisses the flag when inaugurated. He has the BRR (coordinates reconstruction from governor’s office) money to play with and that is allocated to the poorest areas which is his power base which means he will be able to reward his supporters legitimately. Usual problem of people expecting change fast. Interesting to see what Jakarta will do. From their perspective the enemy has won. They could cause insecurity and then move the military in to restore calm but the Indonesian government may not take this route. Next year will be very interesting.
Paul
