Peaking at peak is Pisa - a report
(c) 2006, Leamy | 19.07.2006 09:21 | Analysis | Technology | World
Robert Hirsch can't see how global production of oil can possibly go any higher. Further more, he can't see it simply leveling off for long either. Speaking to those gathered at the 5th International Workshop on Oil and Gas Depletion in Pisa, he said, “I can’t find a plateau in the data I’m looking at... Peaking could come with little warning and sharp declines,” he said.
Hirsch emphasised that it is not the peaking of “net energy” that is important but rather the peaking of “clean liquid fuel.” He therefore looked at how efficient and expensive it would be to introduce mitigatation measure such as coal-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid, tar-sands and shale oil programs along with enhanced oil recovery.
Giving a preview of his new report whic will be made public in the next couple of months, Robert Hirsch said that mitigating against the peak of conventional oil would cost a trillion dollars every year for the next twenty years. Hirsch claimed that such initiatives would enormously expensive and require investment of at least $20 trillion over 20 years. The good news is that he predicited such programs would provide around half a million new jobs. However, he also said that these initatives along with increased fuel efficiency in vehicles would total an equivilent of an addition 15 million barrels per day.
Also speaking at the conference was Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review. Skrebowski is one of a growing number of people that thinks the peak will occure sooner rather than later and warned those assembled at the conference that the post peak world will bring drastic changes. “We’ve built are entire society around oil. Everything depends on cheap and plentiful oil. We will have to change everything we do.” he said.
Skrebowski complained about the reliability of data provided by the industry. He said, “Decoding IEA statistics is like decoding the Da Vinci code.” Nether-the-less he predicts the world oil production peaking at between 92 and 94 million barrels per day and told the ASPO-5 crowd today, “We have 1,500 days until peak and tomorrow we’ll have one day less”.
Like Robert Hirsch, Skrebowski suggested that attempted to mitigat at this late stage could do little to change the date of peak.
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gringoben@gmail.com
Hirsch emphasised that it is not the peaking of “net energy” that is important but rather the peaking of “clean liquid fuel.” He therefore looked at how efficient and expensive it would be to introduce mitigatation measure such as coal-to-liquid and gas-to-liquid, tar-sands and shale oil programs along with enhanced oil recovery.
Giving a preview of his new report whic will be made public in the next couple of months, Robert Hirsch said that mitigating against the peak of conventional oil would cost a trillion dollars every year for the next twenty years. Hirsch claimed that such initiatives would enormously expensive and require investment of at least $20 trillion over 20 years. The good news is that he predicited such programs would provide around half a million new jobs. However, he also said that these initatives along with increased fuel efficiency in vehicles would total an equivilent of an addition 15 million barrels per day.
Also speaking at the conference was Chris Skrebowski, the editor of Petroleum Review. Skrebowski is one of a growing number of people that thinks the peak will occure sooner rather than later and warned those assembled at the conference that the post peak world will bring drastic changes. “We’ve built are entire society around oil. Everything depends on cheap and plentiful oil. We will have to change everything we do.” he said.
Skrebowski complained about the reliability of data provided by the industry. He said, “Decoding IEA statistics is like decoding the Da Vinci code.” Nether-the-less he predicts the world oil production peaking at between 92 and 94 million barrels per day and told the ASPO-5 crowd today, “We have 1,500 days until peak and tomorrow we’ll have one day less”.
Like Robert Hirsch, Skrebowski suggested that attempted to mitigat at this late stage could do little to change the date of peak.
--
gringoben@gmail.com
(c) 2006, Leamy
