Afghanistan Just After the Elections
Paul | 20.09.2005 13:50 | Oxford
So were the elections a success? On what basis should it be judged? Was there 50 or 35% turnout? Lot of vested interest in claiming a success. Next two months will be the real test of if it was a success or not.
Afghanistan 2 days after the Election
Now the time for spin has come. The elections were successful. They were honest. There were hundreds complaints of intimidation and these were just the ones reported. A friend who is high up in the election structure thought it was unsuccessful but after he voiced this at a press briefing he was warned by external relations. Apparently it was a success. Peter Erban, the main person running the elections is known to be manipulative and to have a fair ego but also to be a good man to do a difficult job.
It is claimed that just over 50% of the registered voters voted. There are 12.5m voters and 6m voted. But now it is pointed out that some people probably registered more than once so the total number of potential voters is actually less that 12.5m. Previously, when the success of registration was being hailed, this was not mentioned as a significant factor. The Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, a monitoring body partly financed by the U.S. government, estimated Sunday that 30 per cent to 35 per cent of registered voters cast ballots, based on observations from 7,500 monitors across the country. The explanation for the low turnout is voter fatigue which may be a factor but confusion about the process and what for example the provincial council will do is also a contributing factor. The major reason seems to be disillusionment at the inclusion of killers and war lords in the process.
A couple of rockets landed in the UN compound I work in. One either side of my office but neither exploded properly. I was not there at the time. Polling stations in Kabul seemed nearly empty and looking at the number of filled ballot boxes the turn out was not good. With ballot papers having nearly 400 candidates it did not take many ballots to fill up a box. See attached security report. Now the ballot boxes are being moved to provincial centres they are vulnerable and there are a number of helicopters buzzing overhead.
I talked to a few people running the elections in provinces and also to some observers and the general feeling is that there was very low turnout because of threats and intimidation but there were not many serious incidents. Taliban have distributed night letters saying they will target the counting centres. Some reported that booths were close together and people in some cases were even consulting on who to vote for when in the booths.
There is what is being called an ‘assignation clause’ in the election law where if a candidate dies the next in line takes the post.
At least 50% of the parliament is likely to be illiterate and many predict it will breakdown within 6 months.
Now the votes have to be counted and then from 10th to 22nd Oct there is the challenges period until 22nd Oct when the results are announced. I think there could be some problems over this period which does not take a genius to work out.
Now the time for spin has come. The elections were successful. They were honest. There were hundreds complaints of intimidation and these were just the ones reported. A friend who is high up in the election structure thought it was unsuccessful but after he voiced this at a press briefing he was warned by external relations. Apparently it was a success. Peter Erban, the main person running the elections is known to be manipulative and to have a fair ego but also to be a good man to do a difficult job.
It is claimed that just over 50% of the registered voters voted. There are 12.5m voters and 6m voted. But now it is pointed out that some people probably registered more than once so the total number of potential voters is actually less that 12.5m. Previously, when the success of registration was being hailed, this was not mentioned as a significant factor. The Fair Election Foundation of Afghanistan, a monitoring body partly financed by the U.S. government, estimated Sunday that 30 per cent to 35 per cent of registered voters cast ballots, based on observations from 7,500 monitors across the country. The explanation for the low turnout is voter fatigue which may be a factor but confusion about the process and what for example the provincial council will do is also a contributing factor. The major reason seems to be disillusionment at the inclusion of killers and war lords in the process.
A couple of rockets landed in the UN compound I work in. One either side of my office but neither exploded properly. I was not there at the time. Polling stations in Kabul seemed nearly empty and looking at the number of filled ballot boxes the turn out was not good. With ballot papers having nearly 400 candidates it did not take many ballots to fill up a box. See attached security report. Now the ballot boxes are being moved to provincial centres they are vulnerable and there are a number of helicopters buzzing overhead.
I talked to a few people running the elections in provinces and also to some observers and the general feeling is that there was very low turnout because of threats and intimidation but there were not many serious incidents. Taliban have distributed night letters saying they will target the counting centres. Some reported that booths were close together and people in some cases were even consulting on who to vote for when in the booths.
There is what is being called an ‘assignation clause’ in the election law where if a candidate dies the next in line takes the post.
At least 50% of the parliament is likely to be illiterate and many predict it will breakdown within 6 months.
Now the votes have to be counted and then from 10th to 22nd Oct there is the challenges period until 22nd Oct when the results are announced. I think there could be some problems over this period which does not take a genius to work out.
Paul
