As BP reports drop in oil production, wot r u doing2 prepare4 peak?
ben | 03.07.2006 09:06 | Climate Camp 2006 | Analysis | Climate Chaos | Ecology | Globalisation | London | World
Many different people predict a wide variety of timescales for peak oil and the downslide on the other side. Some people say we have already peaked and others say we've got maybe another six or even eight years. However, the nature of the problem means that we'll only know we've reach global peak after the event as we look back on falling production figures....
Those watching the business news for signs of peak oil will no doubt take for following report as a pretty strong indicator to support the view that we've either passed peak or that it will be very soon.
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
ben
Additions
Free Peak Oil conference in London this month
03.07.2006 09:29
There had been plans to hold a gathering for activists earlier this year with the aim of looking at how peak oil might impact on the issues we work on and how we might strategise and prioritise. However, there didn't appear to be much interest so it appears that generally we remain uninformed, unconvinced ,or perhaps simply in denial about peak oil and it's consequences. If that is the case then perhaps the following free conference in London would interest people....
A free-to-attend conference looking at many aspects of Peak Oil is taking place on Saturday 15 July 2006 at the BedZed development in Hackbridge, just outside London. The event, Peak Speak 2, is the follow up to the successful Peak Speak 1, held at the same location last year. Organised by PowerSwitch.org.uk, and run in a friendly and informal manner, it is designed to give plenty of opportunity to discuss an issue that will dominate the 21st century – the ongoing decline of global oil supplies, how it will affect all lives and what we can do about it. Along with Climate Change, it will make this century very different to the last.
As Jeremy Leggett wrote in the Independent, January 2006, “We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles.” Meanwhile there is a quickly growing acceptance of the concept of imminent Peak Oil. Notable figures such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore believe we are at Peak Oil while the oil company Total sees it as occurring around 2020. The challenges that Peak Oil and Climate Change presents are stark indeed, and it is important for individuals, businesses and government to begin addressing this as soon as possible.
The speakers include: Donnachadh McCarthy, author of Saving The Planet Without Costing The Earth (3acorns.co.uk); Chris Vernon, of PowerSwitch and OilDrum UK, with analysis of UK power supply; Norman Church with his follow up to Systems and Interdependencies; Doly Garcia speaking about Peak Oil Action in Brighton, and Naresh Giangrande who will be discussing Biofuels on the back of Hubbert’s Curve. The emphasis, however, will be on everyone participating.
There will also be an opportunity to see and discuss “The Power of Community : How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” as well as a workshop in learning how to “ Build Networks and Relationships for a Post Peak World.” And as last year, there will be the PeakNik’s Picnic.
For some, Peak Speak 1, which had seventy people in attendance, was a life changing experience. “Peakspeak-1 motivated me to take the plunge and change direction so that in the year that followed I have almost completed an MSc in Renewable Systems Energy Engineering, and hope to make a career in that area going forward, and contribute to the coming problems in some way,” wrote a previous attendee.
Entry is free but you will need to register in advance as places are limited. Email
info@powerswitch.org.uk or call 020 8123 2500. The event takes place at the eco-friendly BedZed Pavillion, BedZed, in Hackbridge, Surrey, 25 minutes by train from London Victoria. More details about BedZed can be found at www.bedzed.org.uk.
PowerSwitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness of Peak Oil. More information can be found at www.powerswitch.org.uk
A free-to-attend conference looking at many aspects of Peak Oil is taking place on Saturday 15 July 2006 at the BedZed development in Hackbridge, just outside London. The event, Peak Speak 2, is the follow up to the successful Peak Speak 1, held at the same location last year. Organised by PowerSwitch.org.uk, and run in a friendly and informal manner, it is designed to give plenty of opportunity to discuss an issue that will dominate the 21st century – the ongoing decline of global oil supplies, how it will affect all lives and what we can do about it. Along with Climate Change, it will make this century very different to the last.
As Jeremy Leggett wrote in the Independent, January 2006, “We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles.” Meanwhile there is a quickly growing acceptance of the concept of imminent Peak Oil. Notable figures such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore believe we are at Peak Oil while the oil company Total sees it as occurring around 2020. The challenges that Peak Oil and Climate Change presents are stark indeed, and it is important for individuals, businesses and government to begin addressing this as soon as possible.
The speakers include: Donnachadh McCarthy, author of Saving The Planet Without Costing The Earth (3acorns.co.uk); Chris Vernon, of PowerSwitch and OilDrum UK, with analysis of UK power supply; Norman Church with his follow up to Systems and Interdependencies; Doly Garcia speaking about Peak Oil Action in Brighton, and Naresh Giangrande who will be discussing Biofuels on the back of Hubbert’s Curve. The emphasis, however, will be on everyone participating.
There will also be an opportunity to see and discuss “The Power of Community : How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” as well as a workshop in learning how to “ Build Networks and Relationships for a Post Peak World.” And as last year, there will be the PeakNik’s Picnic.
For some, Peak Speak 1, which had seventy people in attendance, was a life changing experience. “Peakspeak-1 motivated me to take the plunge and change direction so that in the year that followed I have almost completed an MSc in Renewable Systems Energy Engineering, and hope to make a career in that area going forward, and contribute to the coming problems in some way,” wrote a previous attendee.
Entry is free but you will need to register in advance as places are limited. Email
info@powerswitch.org.uk or call 020 8123 2500. The event takes place at the eco-friendly BedZed Pavillion, BedZed, in Hackbridge, Surrey, 25 minutes by train from London Victoria. More details about BedZed can be found at www.bedzed.org.uk. PowerSwitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness of Peak Oil. More information can be found at www.powerswitch.org.uk
ben
And not free and further away...
03.07.2006 09:36
The Fifth International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO-5) will be held in San Rossore (near Pisa) in Italy, on July 18-19 2006. Previous ASPO conferences were held in Lisbon (2005), Berlin (2004), Paris (2003) and Uppsala (2002).
Cost is 150 euros (or 50 for students).
The objective of the ASPO-5 conference is to raise the awareness of the impending peak of oil extraction and the general phenomenon of depletion of all mineral resources. For this purpose, international experts will evaluate the consistence of the resources, assess the effects of depletion on society and economy, and discuss dynamic models able to help us understand the present and future situation. The conference will also examine the need for political action to reduce the impact of depletion. The submission of communications for oral and poster presentation is welcome (See details below)
The conference will be held in the open air, in the park of San Rossore, near Pisa, an area conveniently located near the international "G. Galilei" airport and a few km from the leaning tower. It is organized by the Italian section of ASPO (ASPO-Italia, www.aspoitalia.net) with the support of the University of Firenze and of the Tuscan Regional Government. The ASPO-5 conference will be followed on July 20-21 in the same location by the "San Rossore conference on Energy" directly organized by the Tuscan Regional Government. This second conference (attendance is free, mainly in Italian) will deal with renewable energy.
http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=73&Itemid=46
Cost is 150 euros (or 50 for students).
The objective of the ASPO-5 conference is to raise the awareness of the impending peak of oil extraction and the general phenomenon of depletion of all mineral resources. For this purpose, international experts will evaluate the consistence of the resources, assess the effects of depletion on society and economy, and discuss dynamic models able to help us understand the present and future situation. The conference will also examine the need for political action to reduce the impact of depletion. The submission of communications for oral and poster presentation is welcome (See details below)
The conference will be held in the open air, in the park of San Rossore, near Pisa, an area conveniently located near the international "G. Galilei" airport and a few km from the leaning tower. It is organized by the Italian section of ASPO (ASPO-Italia, www.aspoitalia.net) with the support of the University of Firenze and of the Tuscan Regional Government. The ASPO-5 conference will be followed on July 20-21 in the same location by the "San Rossore conference on Energy" directly organized by the Tuscan Regional Government. This second conference (attendance is free, mainly in Italian) will deal with renewable energy.
http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=73&Itemid=46
ben
Some additional brief reports
03.07.2006 10:07
In the USA, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in April showed that US output continued to fall by an additional 460,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while demand patterns remained the same.
Mexican output for May stood at 3.77 million barrels per day, down 112,000 barrels year on year.
Figures released last week show that China’s demand for oil rose by 600,000 barrels a day year-on-year in May. Meanwhile their domestic output, hampered by the decline of the Daquing field, rose by just 100,000 barrels per day leaving a large shortfall to be made up by imports from places such as Iran.
OPEC’s latest output shows a fall of 770,000 barrels per day in May.
You do the math!
Mexican output for May stood at 3.77 million barrels per day, down 112,000 barrels year on year.
Figures released last week show that China’s demand for oil rose by 600,000 barrels a day year-on-year in May. Meanwhile their domestic output, hampered by the decline of the Daquing field, rose by just 100,000 barrels per day leaving a large shortfall to be made up by imports from places such as Iran.
OPEC’s latest output shows a fall of 770,000 barrels per day in May.
You do the math!
ben
Comments
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ASPO5 conference
05.07.2006 16:42
ASPO 5. 18-19 July 2006 – San Rossore, Pisa, Italy.
Monday, 17 July
All day: ASPO Committees meetings, Grand Hotel Duomo
14:30-18:00 Registration – Grand Hotel Duomo - Via S.Maria, 94 - PISA
18:00 – Reception offered by the Mayor of Pisa, City Hall, Pisa
18:30 – Projection of the film “The Power of Community” (City Hall, Pisa) (limited seats available)
Tuesday 18, Parco di San Rossore - Pisa
MAIN SESSION (1st tent)
8:30-9:30 Registration
9:30 Ugo Bardi (ASPO-Italy), Introduction to the conference
9:45 Marino Artusa (environment ministry of the Tuscan Region) Welcome address
10:00- 10:40 Colin Campbell (ASPO Honorary Chairman) – Keynote speech; The Age of Oil in Perspective
10:40-11:00- coffee break
1st session: PEAK OIL I
11:00-11:30 Kjell Aleklett (President, ASPO international), A world addicted to Oil, it is time to Sober up
11:30-12:00 Richard Heinberg, (New College of California; Post Carbon Institute) The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse
12:00 – 12:30 Chris Skrebowsky (ODAC and Petroleum Review), Peak Oil - the Emerging Reality
12:30-13:00 Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corp.) Mitigation of Peak Oil - More Numbers
13:00 – 14:00 lunch
2nd session: PEAK OIL II
14:10 - 14:50Leonardo Maugeri (ENI) Title to be announced– Keynote Speech
14:50 – 15:20 Jean Laherrere (ASPO-France), Uncertainty on data and forecasts
15:20 – 15:45 Pierre René Baquis (ASPO-France) What future for hydrocarbons with the incoming peaks of oil and gas?
15:45 – 16:10 Jean Marie Bourdaire (ASPO-France) World Energy and Economy: What perspectives to 2050?
3rd session: GAS AND COAL
16:10 - 16:40 Peter Gerling (BGR, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Germany), Coal - the prime energy of the future?
16:40 -17:10 Francesco Racheli (GE – Oil and Gas), Technology evolution to monetize ’stranded GAS’
17:10 -17:30 Marek Kolodzej, (University of Illinois) The North American Natural Gas Crisis
17:30 - snack and drinks
17: 30 – 19:30 POSTER SESSION
20:00 – social dinner -
19 July
4th session MODELLING
9:00 – 9:40 Dennis Meadows, (Laboratory for Interactive Learning Durham, NH, USA)– Keynote speech, Peak oil and the limits to growth
9:40-10:10 Charles Hall (State University of New York) EROI: The Key Variable in Assessing Alternative Energy Futures 10:10-10:40 Renato Guseo, University of Padova. World Oil Depletion: Diffusion Models, Price Effects, Strategic and Technological Interventions
10:40 -10:55 Ton Trjssenaar (Independent Expert) Jeu de Joule, a model for world energy
10:55 -11:10 Bertrand Michel (Institut Francais du Petrole) Oil Production : A probabilistic model of Hubbert’s curve
11:10-11:20- coffee break
5th session ECONOMICS AND MARKETS
11:20 – 11:50 Mahmoud Salameh, (Oil Market Consultancy Service) Peak Oil and the Rising Crude Oil Price
11:50 – 12:20 Andrew MCKillop (Ecohabitat), Oil prices and the economy: facts, views and opinions
12:20 – 12:40 Luca Barillaro (Compendium Consulting), New financial products: their impact on energy markets
12:40 -14:00 lunch
Afternoon 19
6th session GLOBAL ISSUES I
14:00-14:40 Jeremy Leggett: (SolarCentury), Keynote Speech Peak oil, climate change, and the daunting arithmetic of carbon fuels.
14:40-15:10 Paul Metz (Integer Consult), Peak Oil & CSR - for newcomers, Corporate Social Responsibility
15:10-15:40 Rob Hopkins (Transition Culture) Plan B - enabling relocalisation as a response to peak oil
15:40- 16:10 Folke Gunther (Holon Ecosystem Consultants) Oil depletion and food depletion
7th session GLOBAL ISSUES II
16:20-16:50 Marcello Colitti (Independent Expert) The New Priority of the Oil Companies 16:50-17:20 Terence Ward, (Independent Expert) Iran and the US - Confrontation, Oil Disruption and the Impact
17:20-17:50 Chris Sanders, (Sanders Research associates) NATO: Out of Area and Out of Oil - the war for energy and the end of free markets
18:00-18:30 – Conclusion and Final Remarks
PARALLEL SESSIONS (2nd tent)
8th session PANEL ON POST PEAK ISSUES
Tuesday 18, 15:00-17:30
Folke Gunther
Rob Hopkins
Faith Morgan
Richard Heinberg…..
9th session ASPO SHOW
Wednesday 19. 10:00 -12:30
Public presentation of national ASPO associations
Kjell Aleklett (ASPO International) - Keynote
Dick Lawrence (ASPO USA)
Luca Mercalli (ASPO Italy)
Hirose/Okubo (ASPO Japan)
Bruce Robinson (ASPO Australia)
…… (ASPO China)
…….. (ASPO Norway)
……… (ASPO Indonesia)
program
Greg Palast says Oil Empire aimed at NOT producing oil--Peak Oil Theory trumped
06.07.2006 08:59
So how do the Peak Oil fanatics reconcile the fact that one of the Left's most prominant investigative reporters has produced documented proof that Big Oil has been actually trying to limit availability of "proven reserves" for the last 80 years? Well, they can't. Palast's book, Armed Madhouse, has without really aiming to do so, proven that conventional theories of "peak oil" are Big Oil originated and aimed at formulating public opinion.
While many progressives spend their time ranting and raving about "peak oil," there is no longer any doubt that Big Oil and the disinformationists they employ are celebrating their victory of propaganda. Progressives could be applying all the energy that goes into the bogus "peak oil" theory into civil rights, constitutional law, the illegal war, voter fraud, etc. Yet they are wasting their energies on a conspiracy theory of "peak oil" that was instigated, financed by, and used to influence Congressional action by the very same Big Oil culprits they condemn.
repost
Homepage:
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2006/07/342119.shtml
Yeah, obviously...
10.07.2006 14:12
"If Peak Oil is a myth generated by the oil industry, why is the industry gearing up to extract the much more difficult to get, much more expensive to extract oil from shale and sand? If they have plenty of oil, they would continue to pump the easily and cheaply extracted oil, would they not? A fact is, I've followed up on all the info that I've seen presented on Indymedia by Peak Oil debunkers, and a lot of it just doesn't add up or is so poorly supported as to be just rhetoric.
That the US might have captured Iraq oil resources to prevent it being pumped as fast, is not necessarily incompatible with Peak Oil. It could be that the US leadership knows the easily extracted oil is running out, and therefore has been moving to obtain oil resources that can be used when most of the world has "run out" or at least run out of the petroleum that is practical to get at. So, they're not sitting on it just to keep prices high, but rather to have the means of food production / transportation / etc. later while the rest of the developed world is desperate.
Plenty of info here:
Oil companies are required to file certain records regarding their investment activities, it should not be difficult to determine where / what they are mining for somebody who wants to look into that info. To the best of my knowledge (from getting news from a variety of pro- and anti- Peak Oil sources) the oil industry has been relying more and more on the more difficult to extract and lower-quality petroleum, a sure sign that the total resources are running out.
Regardless of whether Peak Oil is nigh or something much farther in the future, the course of action for the common person should be no different. Whether there is still plenty to harvest and it is being hoarded, or is running out, the pollution from burning fossil fuel still has huge consequences (asthma, cancers, many other types of illnesses, catastrophic climate change) and the policies resulting from dependence on this resource are going to cause suffering all over the planet (military invasions, theft of land, support for despotic oil-friendly leaders).
The answer to me is plenty clear: start moving away from oil consumption now. I started years ago. I now bike for transportation, most of my food comes from local farms (still uses some petroleum but increasingly more local biofuel and much less than buying imported food), and I often make things I need from local materials rather than buy imported stuff. What amazes me the most is that I didn't start doing all of this sooner. It has been very liberating to have fewer expenses and more time since I've structured my life so that I rarely need to leave the neighborhood. "
n