As BP reports drop in oil production, wot r u doing2 prepare4 peak?
ben | 03.07.2006 09:06 | Climate Camp 2006 | Analysis | Climate Chaos | Ecology | Globalisation | London | World
Many different people predict a wide variety of timescales for peak oil and the downslide on the other side. Some people say we have already peaked and others say we've got maybe another six or even eight years. However, the nature of the problem means that we'll only know we've reach global peak after the event as we look back on falling production figures....
Those watching the business news for signs of peak oil will no doubt take for following report as a pretty strong indicator to support the view that we've either passed peak or that it will be very soon.
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
ben
Additions
Free Peak Oil conference in London this month
03.07.2006 09:29
There had been plans to hold a gathering for activists earlier this year with the aim of looking at how peak oil might impact on the issues we work on and how we might strategise and prioritise. However, there didn't appear to be much interest so it appears that generally we remain uninformed, unconvinced ,or perhaps simply in denial about peak oil and it's consequences. If that is the case then perhaps the following free conference in London would interest people....
A free-to-attend conference looking at many aspects of Peak Oil is taking place on Saturday 15 July 2006 at the BedZed development in Hackbridge, just outside London. The event, Peak Speak 2, is the follow up to the successful Peak Speak 1, held at the same location last year. Organised by PowerSwitch.org.uk, and run in a friendly and informal manner, it is designed to give plenty of opportunity to discuss an issue that will dominate the 21st century – the ongoing decline of global oil supplies, how it will affect all lives and what we can do about it. Along with Climate Change, it will make this century very different to the last.
As Jeremy Leggett wrote in the Independent, January 2006, “We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles.” Meanwhile there is a quickly growing acceptance of the concept of imminent Peak Oil. Notable figures such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore believe we are at Peak Oil while the oil company Total sees it as occurring around 2020. The challenges that Peak Oil and Climate Change presents are stark indeed, and it is important for individuals, businesses and government to begin addressing this as soon as possible.
The speakers include: Donnachadh McCarthy, author of Saving The Planet Without Costing The Earth (3acorns.co.uk); Chris Vernon, of PowerSwitch and OilDrum UK, with analysis of UK power supply; Norman Church with his follow up to Systems and Interdependencies; Doly Garcia speaking about Peak Oil Action in Brighton, and Naresh Giangrande who will be discussing Biofuels on the back of Hubbert’s Curve. The emphasis, however, will be on everyone participating.
There will also be an opportunity to see and discuss “The Power of Community : How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” as well as a workshop in learning how to “ Build Networks and Relationships for a Post Peak World.” And as last year, there will be the PeakNik’s Picnic.
For some, Peak Speak 1, which had seventy people in attendance, was a life changing experience. “Peakspeak-1 motivated me to take the plunge and change direction so that in the year that followed I have almost completed an MSc in Renewable Systems Energy Engineering, and hope to make a career in that area going forward, and contribute to the coming problems in some way,” wrote a previous attendee.
Entry is free but you will need to register in advance as places are limited. Email
info@powerswitch.org.uk or call 020 8123 2500. The event takes place at the eco-friendly BedZed Pavillion, BedZed, in Hackbridge, Surrey, 25 minutes by train from London Victoria. More details about BedZed can be found at www.bedzed.org.uk.
PowerSwitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness of Peak Oil. More information can be found at www.powerswitch.org.uk
A free-to-attend conference looking at many aspects of Peak Oil is taking place on Saturday 15 July 2006 at the BedZed development in Hackbridge, just outside London. The event, Peak Speak 2, is the follow up to the successful Peak Speak 1, held at the same location last year. Organised by PowerSwitch.org.uk, and run in a friendly and informal manner, it is designed to give plenty of opportunity to discuss an issue that will dominate the 21st century – the ongoing decline of global oil supplies, how it will affect all lives and what we can do about it. Along with Climate Change, it will make this century very different to the last.
As Jeremy Leggett wrote in the Independent, January 2006, “We have allowed oil to become vital to virtually everything we do. Ninety per cent of all our transportation, whether by land, air or sea, is fuelled by oil. Ninety-five per cent of all goods in shops involve the use of oil. Ninety-five per cent of all our food products require oil use. Just to farm a single cow and deliver it to market requires six barrels of oil, enough to drive a car from New York to Los Angeles.” Meanwhile there is a quickly growing acceptance of the concept of imminent Peak Oil. Notable figures such as Bill Clinton and Al Gore believe we are at Peak Oil while the oil company Total sees it as occurring around 2020. The challenges that Peak Oil and Climate Change presents are stark indeed, and it is important for individuals, businesses and government to begin addressing this as soon as possible.
The speakers include: Donnachadh McCarthy, author of Saving The Planet Without Costing The Earth (3acorns.co.uk); Chris Vernon, of PowerSwitch and OilDrum UK, with analysis of UK power supply; Norman Church with his follow up to Systems and Interdependencies; Doly Garcia speaking about Peak Oil Action in Brighton, and Naresh Giangrande who will be discussing Biofuels on the back of Hubbert’s Curve. The emphasis, however, will be on everyone participating.
There will also be an opportunity to see and discuss “The Power of Community : How Cuba Survived Peak Oil” as well as a workshop in learning how to “ Build Networks and Relationships for a Post Peak World.” And as last year, there will be the PeakNik’s Picnic.
For some, Peak Speak 1, which had seventy people in attendance, was a life changing experience. “Peakspeak-1 motivated me to take the plunge and change direction so that in the year that followed I have almost completed an MSc in Renewable Systems Energy Engineering, and hope to make a career in that area going forward, and contribute to the coming problems in some way,” wrote a previous attendee.
Entry is free but you will need to register in advance as places are limited. Email
info@powerswitch.org.uk or call 020 8123 2500. The event takes place at the eco-friendly BedZed Pavillion, BedZed, in Hackbridge, Surrey, 25 minutes by train from London Victoria. More details about BedZed can be found at www.bedzed.org.uk. PowerSwitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness of Peak Oil. More information can be found at www.powerswitch.org.uk
ben
And not free and further away...
03.07.2006 09:36
The Fifth International Conference of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO-5) will be held in San Rossore (near Pisa) in Italy, on July 18-19 2006. Previous ASPO conferences were held in Lisbon (2005), Berlin (2004), Paris (2003) and Uppsala (2002).
Cost is 150 euros (or 50 for students).
The objective of the ASPO-5 conference is to raise the awareness of the impending peak of oil extraction and the general phenomenon of depletion of all mineral resources. For this purpose, international experts will evaluate the consistence of the resources, assess the effects of depletion on society and economy, and discuss dynamic models able to help us understand the present and future situation. The conference will also examine the need for political action to reduce the impact of depletion. The submission of communications for oral and poster presentation is welcome (See details below)
The conference will be held in the open air, in the park of San Rossore, near Pisa, an area conveniently located near the international "G. Galilei" airport and a few km from the leaning tower. It is organized by the Italian section of ASPO (ASPO-Italia, www.aspoitalia.net) with the support of the University of Firenze and of the Tuscan Regional Government. The ASPO-5 conference will be followed on July 20-21 in the same location by the "San Rossore conference on Energy" directly organized by the Tuscan Regional Government. This second conference (attendance is free, mainly in Italian) will deal with renewable energy.
http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=73&Itemid=46
Cost is 150 euros (or 50 for students).
The objective of the ASPO-5 conference is to raise the awareness of the impending peak of oil extraction and the general phenomenon of depletion of all mineral resources. For this purpose, international experts will evaluate the consistence of the resources, assess the effects of depletion on society and economy, and discuss dynamic models able to help us understand the present and future situation. The conference will also examine the need for political action to reduce the impact of depletion. The submission of communications for oral and poster presentation is welcome (See details below)
The conference will be held in the open air, in the park of San Rossore, near Pisa, an area conveniently located near the international "G. Galilei" airport and a few km from the leaning tower. It is organized by the Italian section of ASPO (ASPO-Italia, www.aspoitalia.net) with the support of the University of Firenze and of the Tuscan Regional Government. The ASPO-5 conference will be followed on July 20-21 in the same location by the "San Rossore conference on Energy" directly organized by the Tuscan Regional Government. This second conference (attendance is free, mainly in Italian) will deal with renewable energy.
http://www.aspoitalia.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=73&Itemid=46
ben
Some additional brief reports
03.07.2006 10:07
In the USA, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in April showed that US output continued to fall by an additional 460,000 barrels per day year-on-year, while demand patterns remained the same.
Mexican output for May stood at 3.77 million barrels per day, down 112,000 barrels year on year.
Figures released last week show that China’s demand for oil rose by 600,000 barrels a day year-on-year in May. Meanwhile their domestic output, hampered by the decline of the Daquing field, rose by just 100,000 barrels per day leaving a large shortfall to be made up by imports from places such as Iran.
OPEC’s latest output shows a fall of 770,000 barrels per day in May.
You do the math!
Mexican output for May stood at 3.77 million barrels per day, down 112,000 barrels year on year.
Figures released last week show that China’s demand for oil rose by 600,000 barrels a day year-on-year in May. Meanwhile their domestic output, hampered by the decline of the Daquing field, rose by just 100,000 barrels per day leaving a large shortfall to be made up by imports from places such as Iran.
OPEC’s latest output shows a fall of 770,000 barrels per day in May.
You do the math!
ben
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