This week in Venezuela President Hugo Chávez, the military man hoping to become the next Fidel Castro, faced a mass revolt among his country’s working class and peasants. The country saw its first general strike in more than 40 years after the authoritarian leader attempt to rig the election of the Venezuelan equivalent of the Trades Union Congress. However, the strike is supported by domestic capitalists, who have conspired to undermine the man they regard as a populist leftist. The situation threatens to repeat the events seen under the dictatorship of General Marcos Pérez
Jiminez, who fled the country after he was embroiled in a major corruption scandal.

Chávez initially garnered support with a brand of radicalism which he identified with the spirit of Simón Bolivar, the Latin American revolutionary who fought Spanish imperialism. He wanted to sweep away the old political order which was dominated by Acción Democrática (AD) (Democratic Action) and the Partido Demócrata de Venezuela (Copei) (Christian Democratic Party of Venezuela), abolish poverty and create a spirit of unity among other states in the region to even out the power balance with the US.

While he has broken the mould of Venezuelan politics and created a Bolivarian image, Chávez has not made the transition from erstwhile revolutionary army officer
to democratic statesman. His popularity has started to wane and his allies are becoming more bemused by his erratic and often authoritarian behaviour. Indeed, the developments that have followed his decision to rule by decree, endorsed by parliament at the end of 2000, have only created confusion and dismay. Critics have also justifiably accused him of paranoia due to his repeated threat to declare a state of emergency, which would give him almost total control over the country.

However, Chávez claims that there are conspiracies afoot in the military, among the political opposition and abroad are not without foundation. The scandalised former President Carlos Andrés Pérez, who Chávez led a military rebellion against in 1992, has continually repeated calls for a military coup from his home in Miami in the US. Meanwhile, the Catholic Church and the media have launched a vitriolic campaign against Chávez which has helped accelerate the capital flight from Venezuela.

Nevertheless, Chávez has made matters worse for him and his country. In May 2001, Chávez frustrated his colleagues and supporters in parliament by announcing the rebirth of the Movimiento Bolivariano Revolucionario 200 (MBR-200) (Bolivarian Revolutionary Movement) while issuing another threat to declare a state of emergency, before going on a three-week tour of India. The MBR-200 served as Chávez’s quasi-military support group during his failed coup in 1992, but has since become defunct. The President’s quest to revive the organisation was seen as a slight against his own Movimiento V República (MVR) (Movement of the Fifth Republic). This has left the MVR reeling while the political pundits are asking whether this was a move to give the President more control over the country’s power structures or simply to revive past glories.

As 2001 progressed, Chávez’s attempts to control every aspect of Venezuelan political life faltered. His ploy to control the trade unions began after a referendum was held in December 2000 to approve a nationwide election organised by the government to elect new members of the Confederación de Trabajadores de Venezuela (CTV) (Venezuelan Workers Confederation), the alliance of unions organised under a single leadership, much like the British Trades Union Congress (TUC). Splits appeared within the MVR over who to back for the CTV leadership.

The pro-Chávez Federación Bolivariana de Trabajadores (FBT) (Bolivarian Workers Federation) eventually decided to support the Mayor of Caracas, Aristóbulo Istúriz. This was in preference to Pablo Medina, who was Chávez’s first choice but who is distrusted by many in the ranks of the MVR and the FBT because of his reputation as an aggressive individualist who could turn against the President. The selection of Istúriz, a life-long union activist, also ensured the government had a better chance of getting their man elected.

However, the elections have been thrown into turmoil after Istúriz and other alleged serious voting irregularities and the CTV’s electoral commission failed to publish the results, despite street protests. Opportunists in the jilted oligarchy have attempted to make political capital, by throwing their weight behind the workers’ protests. This
leaves the door open for a return of the oold AD-Copei duopoly or, worse still, a coup by pro-capitalist businessmen. Much the Chávez’s fortunes rest on oil revenues. If oil prices stabilise at over $20 per barrel, Venezuela - one the world’s largest oil producers - will be able to buy off support. However, with the threat of global
recession and oil prices as low as $15 per barrel, Chávez’s days could be numbered.