Global warming caused by human activity is a giant hoax! Bush and the oil companies were right all along, I knew I should have had more faith! So says a channel 4 documentary broadcast last Thursday, ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’, produced by Martin Durkin. It effectively attributes the green movement to a neo-imperialist agenda to prevent the world’s poorest regions from developing.
Just like Al Gore’s recent venture into factual film making, Durkin’s account is staggeringly one sided, and has as much to do with a personal political agenda as it does with a discussion of climate science. Unlike Gore however, Durkin utilizes extremely dubious information, discredited long before the documentary went to air.
Central to the case put forward in the 90 minute documentary, is the claim that the sun is responsible for all fluctuations in global temperature, with anthropogenic factors playing an insignificant role in recent warming trends. Such a delightfully simple explanation, why didn’t the worlds finest minds realize this before? Graph’s do show a correlation between solar irradiance and global temperature, but what the film crucially omits is the fact that once non-anthropogenic factors - such as solar sunspot changes, cosmic ray cloud nucleation changes and volcanic activity - have been taken into account, it is apparent that the earth should at present be cooling, not warming (1).
The sun’s energy alone does not create our climate, the atmosphere traps heat in what is known as the greenhouse effect. It is the quantifiable anthropogenic changes made to the atmosphere which explain the present rise in temperature. Theories of Cosmo-climatology such as those advanced in the film have not remained credible under peer scrutiny, and as such are not taken that seriously in the scientific community (2). Furthermore, the graph used to prove the relationship between solar rays and temperature turns out to be a little less accurate than was claimed (3). To retain balance in this article, it is necessary to say that Durkin might respond by suggesting that climate scientists who disagree with the cosmic rays theory (the majority) are not doing so due to lack of credible evidence, but as part of a conspiratorial proto-fascist resurgence led by environmentalists, as Durkin effectively claimed in a 1997 documentary “Against Nature”, aired on channel 4.
Prior to bringing the spurious cosmic rays theory into play, Durkin displays ice core data proving that increases in temperature precede increases in atmospheric CO2 levels. From this it is inferred that humanity can‘t be involved in global warming…thus, it must be the sun! Again only part of the story is told. CO2 and temperature are presented as entirely un-correlated, rather than as strongly coupled variables in a feedback relationship. CO2 is not responsible for initiating warming, but amplifies it once it is underway, as we are now witnessing (4). The film should also have mentioned that there is a considerable lag between emitting CO2 and the increase in temperature – we will not witness the effects of current emissions for some time yet.
A further attempt to sever the link between human activity and global temperature came with a focus upon the plateau in global temperature between 1940 and 1980, a period when CO2 emissions were rising. Again lying by omission, there was no attempt to explain that this plateau has been attributed to the greater prevalence of sulphate aerosols (which cause cooling) during this period.
Many of the most potent weapons in the pub climate skeptics arsenal were also brought out over the course of the film. Firstly, the medieval warm period, where one could grow grapes in the UK -. The film neglected to mention that this was a regional fluctuation rather than a global change (5). Secondly, the so called mini ice-age, again a regional fluctuation, specific to Western Europe, and insignificant compared to the global trends we are now experiencing (6). Thirdly, the claim that volcanoes are responsible for greater CO2 emissions than humans - something that flatly contradicts all available evidence, which shows the sum total of all CO2 emitted by active volcanoes amounts to about 1/150th of anthropogenic emissions (7).
Anybody even scratching the surface of contemporary debates on climate change would be aware of the weak foundations of the case put forward. However, the content is understandable given that the only scientific advisor employed for the documentary was a certain Martin Livermore, whose sole scientific qualification is as the Director of The Scientific Alliance, an organization that has no affiliation with any recognized scientific body. The Alliance was set up by in 2001 by Robert Durward, the fiercely anti-green director of the British Aggregates Association, and Foresight Communications, a Westminster public relations and lobbying company, to “counter scare-mongering by the so-called green lobby”. The Scientific Alliance, like most of the contributors to the program, has strong links with the US public relations organizations that have been so effective in setting the Bush agenda on climate change. Indeed, many of the scientists used as authoritative voices on the documentary will be familiar to those with an eye on corporate greenwash, as figures who have received direct funding from fossil fuel industries (Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, Patrick Moore) or lack credentials as climate scientists (Philip Stott, Piers Corbyn) (8).
The scientific community is never unified on any issue, and if you have the money it is possible to assemble a team of scientists to defend your vested interests should they be threatened by other scientific discoveries. This happened in the past when the link between lung cancer and smoking emerged, and in recent times a denial industry has arisen to confuse the issue of climate change. Although by no means perfect, the IPCC was established to remedy the confusion that results from a multitude of different voices pitching into the debates on global warming, with agendas concealed beneath a façade of scientific neutrality. It presents us with a moderate line on climate change, taken from the thorough examination of contemporary peer-reviewed scientific literature. It happens to be the case that even the moderate line on climate change is extremely troubling (9), and the IPCC is most frequently criticized for under-stating the problems faced (10).
Understandably, many people would rather listen to comforting assurances that the carbon economy can continue in full swing. Many will also pay handsomely for them, as channel 4 has demonstrated.
Given the serious implications of any discussion surrounding global warming, how was it that such an obviously misleading documentary came to be broadcast? Of course anti-dogmatism is the lifeblood of science, all theories must be continually challenged, and this is to be encouraged in the public arena - but only when these challenges are based upon theories proven by credible evidence -something this film conclusively failed to provide.
Unfortunately this was not simply a case of well meaning ignorance on the part of those involved. Durkin is well known to channel 4, in the past they have aired a number of his clumsy forays into the world of scientific controversy, none of which have passed without incident. They include 1997’s “Against Nature” which attempted to paint environmentalists as proto-fascists (later reprimanded by the Independent Television Commission for misleading interviewee’s over the purpose of the documentary and misrepresenting their opinions through selective editing ) (11), an edition of Equinox which linked silicone implants to the prevention of breast cancer (rejected by the BBC whose in house researcher stated that Durkin was ignoring evidence contradicting his claims), and a hopelessly ill informed portrayal of the GM crop debate in 2000 (multiple signatories from the Third World complained in a joint letter following the programme that it was a propaganda vehicle that made use of the Third World's rural poverty to support the monopoly control and global use of genetically modified food production by transnational corporations and emotionally blackmail the UK public into using GM) (12). Serious complaints about the misinformation distributed in these films has obviously not deterred channel four from once again giving Durkin funding and a primetime slot. The complaints have begun to accumulate, including one from Carl Wunsch, professor of physical oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the most credible sources used in the film, who is considering legal action against channel 4, claiming that his views have been “completely misrepresented” to imply that pollution has nothing to do with global warming, calling the film “as close to pure propaganda as anything since World War Two” (13).
The final section of the documentary was the most enlightening. Neglecting to mention the environmentalist mantra of contraction and convergence (allowing people living in poorer nations to increase their emission levels up to a sustainable level, should they want to, whilst the biggest polluters contract dramatically to sustainable levels), nor the fact that the Kyoto protocol does not apply to the worlds poorest nations, nor that the less economically developed regions of the world will be worst affected by climate change, Durkin claims that anthropocentric global warming is a conspiracy drawn up by the global elite to lock poorer nations into ‘under-development’, to the benefit of the wealthy. Therefore ceaseless growth of the carbon economy must continue! Durkin’s political background involves strong ties to the (now disbanded) Revolutionary Communist Party, a group that went so far left it came out again on the right (14). The RCP believed, similar to fundamentalist Christians seeking to rebuild the Temple in Jerusalem to usher in the apocalypse, that the demise of capitalism will be speeded by exemplifying its worst effects on the human population of the world and its ecosystems. All attempts to bring about social and environmental justice are opposed as delays to the revolution, but hidden beneath right wing libertarian rhetoric of extreme opposition to state interventionism. It is no wonder then that many associated with this group have been welcomed with open arms by the corporate press, and others whose interests are threatened by the curtailment of consumption necessary as a response to global warming. ‘The Great Climate Swindle’ provides a perfect accompaniment to the advertisements upon which corporate media entities such as channel 4 rely upon for their survival.
As it stands, the coming century is likely to bring droughts, floods, famines, resource wars and mass migrations on a scale never seen before. Responses to the impending crisis are at present hopelessly inadequate, and if one doesn’t feel motivated to join the growing protest movement in some capacity, perhaps it would be best to pray that Durkin and co. are correct.
(1)
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2486/24861403.jpg
(2) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/cosmoclimatology-tired-old-arguments-in-new-clothes/
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin/
(3) http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/DamonLaut2004.pdf
(4) http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/
(5) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ipcc7.1-mann-moberg.png
(6) http://www.pages2005.org/mediaroom/paperpics/mann1.gif
http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/images/cetann.gif
(7) http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/223957/72
(8) http://www.climatedenial.org/
(9) http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6179409.stm
(10) IPCC for policy makers, 4ar http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_PlenaryApproved.pdf
(11) http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/19980402000124.html
(12) http://www.biotech-info.net/joint_letter.html
(13) http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2347526.ece
http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2031457,00.html
(14) http://www.monbiot.com/archives/1997/12/18/the-revolution-has-been-televised/http://www.monbiot.com/archives/1997/12/18/the-revolution-has-been-televised/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1102753,00.html
Central to the case put forward in the 90 minute documentary, is the claim that the sun is responsible for all fluctuations in global temperature, with anthropogenic factors playing an insignificant role in recent warming trends. Such a delightfully simple explanation, why didn’t the worlds finest minds realize this before? Graph’s do show a correlation between solar irradiance and global temperature, but what the film crucially omits is the fact that once non-anthropogenic factors - such as solar sunspot changes, cosmic ray cloud nucleation changes and volcanic activity - have been taken into account, it is apparent that the earth should at present be cooling, not warming (1).
The sun’s energy alone does not create our climate, the atmosphere traps heat in what is known as the greenhouse effect. It is the quantifiable anthropogenic changes made to the atmosphere which explain the present rise in temperature. Theories of Cosmo-climatology such as those advanced in the film have not remained credible under peer scrutiny, and as such are not taken that seriously in the scientific community (2). Furthermore, the graph used to prove the relationship between solar rays and temperature turns out to be a little less accurate than was claimed (3). To retain balance in this article, it is necessary to say that Durkin might respond by suggesting that climate scientists who disagree with the cosmic rays theory (the majority) are not doing so due to lack of credible evidence, but as part of a conspiratorial proto-fascist resurgence led by environmentalists, as Durkin effectively claimed in a 1997 documentary “Against Nature”, aired on channel 4.
Prior to bringing the spurious cosmic rays theory into play, Durkin displays ice core data proving that increases in temperature precede increases in atmospheric CO2 levels. From this it is inferred that humanity can‘t be involved in global warming…thus, it must be the sun! Again only part of the story is told. CO2 and temperature are presented as entirely un-correlated, rather than as strongly coupled variables in a feedback relationship. CO2 is not responsible for initiating warming, but amplifies it once it is underway, as we are now witnessing (4). The film should also have mentioned that there is a considerable lag between emitting CO2 and the increase in temperature – we will not witness the effects of current emissions for some time yet.
A further attempt to sever the link between human activity and global temperature came with a focus upon the plateau in global temperature between 1940 and 1980, a period when CO2 emissions were rising. Again lying by omission, there was no attempt to explain that this plateau has been attributed to the greater prevalence of sulphate aerosols (which cause cooling) during this period.
Many of the most potent weapons in the pub climate skeptics arsenal were also brought out over the course of the film. Firstly, the medieval warm period, where one could grow grapes in the UK -. The film neglected to mention that this was a regional fluctuation rather than a global change (5). Secondly, the so called mini ice-age, again a regional fluctuation, specific to Western Europe, and insignificant compared to the global trends we are now experiencing (6). Thirdly, the claim that volcanoes are responsible for greater CO2 emissions than humans - something that flatly contradicts all available evidence, which shows the sum total of all CO2 emitted by active volcanoes amounts to about 1/150th of anthropogenic emissions (7).
Anybody even scratching the surface of contemporary debates on climate change would be aware of the weak foundations of the case put forward. However, the content is understandable given that the only scientific advisor employed for the documentary was a certain Martin Livermore, whose sole scientific qualification is as the Director of The Scientific Alliance, an organization that has no affiliation with any recognized scientific body. The Alliance was set up by in 2001 by Robert Durward, the fiercely anti-green director of the British Aggregates Association, and Foresight Communications, a Westminster public relations and lobbying company, to “counter scare-mongering by the so-called green lobby”. The Scientific Alliance, like most of the contributors to the program, has strong links with the US public relations organizations that have been so effective in setting the Bush agenda on climate change. Indeed, many of the scientists used as authoritative voices on the documentary will be familiar to those with an eye on corporate greenwash, as figures who have received direct funding from fossil fuel industries (Fred Singer, Patrick Michaels, Patrick Moore) or lack credentials as climate scientists (Philip Stott, Piers Corbyn) (8).
The scientific community is never unified on any issue, and if you have the money it is possible to assemble a team of scientists to defend your vested interests should they be threatened by other scientific discoveries. This happened in the past when the link between lung cancer and smoking emerged, and in recent times a denial industry has arisen to confuse the issue of climate change. Although by no means perfect, the IPCC was established to remedy the confusion that results from a multitude of different voices pitching into the debates on global warming, with agendas concealed beneath a façade of scientific neutrality. It presents us with a moderate line on climate change, taken from the thorough examination of contemporary peer-reviewed scientific literature. It happens to be the case that even the moderate line on climate change is extremely troubling (9), and the IPCC is most frequently criticized for under-stating the problems faced (10).
Understandably, many people would rather listen to comforting assurances that the carbon economy can continue in full swing. Many will also pay handsomely for them, as channel 4 has demonstrated.
Given the serious implications of any discussion surrounding global warming, how was it that such an obviously misleading documentary came to be broadcast? Of course anti-dogmatism is the lifeblood of science, all theories must be continually challenged, and this is to be encouraged in the public arena - but only when these challenges are based upon theories proven by credible evidence -something this film conclusively failed to provide.
Unfortunately this was not simply a case of well meaning ignorance on the part of those involved. Durkin is well known to channel 4, in the past they have aired a number of his clumsy forays into the world of scientific controversy, none of which have passed without incident. They include 1997’s “Against Nature” which attempted to paint environmentalists as proto-fascists (later reprimanded by the Independent Television Commission for misleading interviewee’s over the purpose of the documentary and misrepresenting their opinions through selective editing ) (11), an edition of Equinox which linked silicone implants to the prevention of breast cancer (rejected by the BBC whose in house researcher stated that Durkin was ignoring evidence contradicting his claims), and a hopelessly ill informed portrayal of the GM crop debate in 2000 (multiple signatories from the Third World complained in a joint letter following the programme that it was a propaganda vehicle that made use of the Third World's rural poverty to support the monopoly control and global use of genetically modified food production by transnational corporations and emotionally blackmail the UK public into using GM) (12). Serious complaints about the misinformation distributed in these films has obviously not deterred channel four from once again giving Durkin funding and a primetime slot. The complaints have begun to accumulate, including one from Carl Wunsch, professor of physical oceanography at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and one of the most credible sources used in the film, who is considering legal action against channel 4, claiming that his views have been “completely misrepresented” to imply that pollution has nothing to do with global warming, calling the film “as close to pure propaganda as anything since World War Two” (13).
The final section of the documentary was the most enlightening. Neglecting to mention the environmentalist mantra of contraction and convergence (allowing people living in poorer nations to increase their emission levels up to a sustainable level, should they want to, whilst the biggest polluters contract dramatically to sustainable levels), nor the fact that the Kyoto protocol does not apply to the worlds poorest nations, nor that the less economically developed regions of the world will be worst affected by climate change, Durkin claims that anthropocentric global warming is a conspiracy drawn up by the global elite to lock poorer nations into ‘under-development’, to the benefit of the wealthy. Therefore ceaseless growth of the carbon economy must continue! Durkin’s political background involves strong ties to the (now disbanded) Revolutionary Communist Party, a group that went so far left it came out again on the right (14). The RCP believed, similar to fundamentalist Christians seeking to rebuild the Temple in Jerusalem to usher in the apocalypse, that the demise of capitalism will be speeded by exemplifying its worst effects on the human population of the world and its ecosystems. All attempts to bring about social and environmental justice are opposed as delays to the revolution, but hidden beneath right wing libertarian rhetoric of extreme opposition to state interventionism. It is no wonder then that many associated with this group have been welcomed with open arms by the corporate press, and others whose interests are threatened by the curtailment of consumption necessary as a response to global warming. ‘The Great Climate Swindle’ provides a perfect accompaniment to the advertisements upon which corporate media entities such as channel 4 rely upon for their survival.
As it stands, the coming century is likely to bring droughts, floods, famines, resource wars and mass migrations on a scale never seen before. Responses to the impending crisis are at present hopelessly inadequate, and if one doesn’t feel motivated to join the growing protest movement in some capacity, perhaps it would be best to pray that Durkin and co. are correct.
(1)
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2486/24861403.jpg (2)
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/cosmoclimatology-tired-old-arguments-in-new-clothes/ http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin/ (3)
http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/DamonLaut2004.pdf (4)
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/co2-in-ice-cores/ (5)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ipcc7.1-mann-moberg.png (6)
http://www.pages2005.org/mediaroom/paperpics/mann1.gif http://www.usefulinfo.co.uk/images/cetann.gif (7)
http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/12/17/223957/72 (8)
http://www.climatedenial.org/ (9)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6179409.stm (10) IPCC for policy makers, 4ar
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/docs/WG1AR4_SPM_PlenaryApproved.pdf (11)
http://www.foe.co.uk/resource/press_releases/19980402000124.html (12)
http://www.biotech-info.net/joint_letter.html (13)
http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/climate_change/article2347526.ece http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2031457,00.html (14)
http://www.monbiot.com/archives/1997/12/18/the-revolution-has-been-televised/http://www.monbiot.com/archives/1997/12/18/the-revolution-has-been-televised/ http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1102753,00.html 
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Critique of the program by John Houghton former co-chair of IPCC
12.03.2007 01:08
Martin Durkin appears to be a professional shit stirrer with a serious grudge against environmentalists. He obviously gets off on the controversy he creates so it is important not to respond in a hysterical manner to the latest in a line of his egregious junk science programs. We must hope that those scientists who were misrepresented do go through the proper complaints process against channel 4 so that hopefully they have to make a prime time apology (again) for showing such dross. Tremendous damage has been done by the screening of this program however, as a great many people who have always wanted to believe that climate change is fictional will use it as ammunition for arguing against policy and life style changes etc. I would urge all those who are concerned about climate change to monitor all the likely on line forums, journals etc where the petrol heads are likely to spout off this bad science, and post their own more informed response.
kriptick
Homepage:
http://www.jri.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=137&Itemid=83
CHALLENGE
02.07.2007 16:35
Your are incapable of arguing the science so you resort to personal attacks. I have loads of credentials and in terms of long range weather (and climate) I actually issue long range forecasts which have an independenently proven SIGNIFICANT success rate unlike any produced by Global Warming Orthodoxy. I issued the following weather bet challenges in January 2007 at a presentation in the Dana centre - Science Museum London. No one took me up, so how about someone of your followers taking me up.
1. Central England average temperatures will not break records this year (2007)
2. World Average Temperatures will not break records this year (2007) {NB Global warmers 'predicted' they would}.
3. Same as (2) but for 2008, 2009, 2010 2011, 2012 2013.
I am ready to debate SCIENCE with anyone in public anytime, but I daresay you are not.
Herewith recent Press Releases (without attachments}
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters
MORE FLOOD DEBATE NEWS issued 29th JUNE 2007
- Long Range warnings of More thunderfloods
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Fax +44(0)20 7939 9901 E:
CONTACT Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320
* This weekend (30th June & 1st July) 'won't be that bad'. Worse thunderfloods predicted 4-5th July & 9th-11th July
* Recent floods made worse by 'catastrophic environmental neglect'
* Storms & tornadoes 24th-26th June triggered by new actice sunspot regions which were predicted along with the floods and tornadoes by Piers Corbyn of Weather Action and announced at Institute Of Physics 7th June
* Claims that floods caused by 'Global warming' are'unjustifiable in any terms'.
THE WEATHER: Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of Weather Action long range forecasters today (29th June) issued expert advice that the rains this weekend "won't be as bad as has been suggested on TV because they are not being driven by the same 'synchronicity of solar forcing factors' which caused the thunderfloods and tornadoes of 24th-26th June (all of which which were correctly forecast to the day by Weather Action from weeks ahead)". He said: "Of course coming on top of what there has been any rain is bad news but he re-iterated for public use the severe weather warning originally only issued to Weather Action customers (see below) that more serious thunderflood and tornadoes risk periods are due around 4th-5th July and (probably more significantly) 9th-11th July. (90% likely
Weather Action staement Issued 11th June to Long Range customers etc
to re-inforce long range forecast 30day ahead detail issued end May :
SPECIFIC SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS
AND WARNINGS OF ERRORS IN SHORT RANGE FORECAST JUNE 2007
12th-14th JUNE Rain hail and thunder. Becoming cooler in East.
Apart from regional detail (which is 'B' level) the important point about this period is 'EA' (extra activity) level 2 which means that wherever they occur rain and hail and thunderstorms can be locally very heavy and threaten transport and services through flash floods, hail distress and lightning strikes. Intensities will be greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead.
20-21st JUNE Wet and windy with thunder. Widespread rain
Apart from regional detail which is 'B' level the important point about this period is 'EA' (extra activity) level 3 which means that wherever they occur rain and (thunder) storms can be locally heavy (but probably less extreme than EA Top or level 2 time periods) and potentially threaten transport and services through winds, flash floods and lightning. Intensities will be greater than that suggested by TV forecasts 24 hours ahead but TV forecast underestimates of extremes in this time window will be probably less than for 12-14 and 22-26 June
24th-26th JUNE Dramatic thunderstorms.
This period is 'EA' TOP level which means that wherever they occur rain and hail and thunderstorms will be locally very heavy and threaten transport and services through flash floods and lightning strikes and hail damage and could lead - following on from the previous period - to difficulties in some personnel getting to work. Intensities will be significantly greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead.
Piers Corbyn, for Weather Action, 11 June 2007
General Information.
1. Weather Action forecasts are statistically (proven in independent peer-reviewed published papers and by weather gambling over years) much better than luck and best at rain/storm /wind extremes. There are errors of course and SWT23A is addressing those (which caused trouble in some pretty unique periods in the earlier part of this year).
Where there are periods of higher forecast uncertainty that is stated and so the forecasts should be applied with more caution. Despite uncertainties subscribers renew regularly.
2. In terms of Strategic implications of Forecasts a number of serious extremes and contrasts are coming in the next 6 months. These are part of such a tendency which we correctly forecast over the last year - eg rapid deep contrasts such as cold Spring 06, followed by hot June & July, cool wet August, astoundingly warm Sept 06 etc. Businesses need advance warning to consider and prepare.
ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY FAILINGS: He said "The recent rainfall although very heavy - as predicted by our long range solar-based forecasting technique, was not actually unprecedented in many of the flooded areas; however the effects have been made much worse by catastrophic environmental policy failings in rain catchment areas. In the Severn area extra sheep farming and other upland activity has compacted soil - making it less able to hold water and increasing the rate of run-off.
In the Yorkshire area the digging of ditches (in vain attempts to change moorland) which have not been filled in has made run-off very rapid and also increased the amount of black silt in the Rivers Don and others. In both areas - indeed the whole of England - the EU/Govt subsidised destruction of hedgerows has also lessened the water holding capacity of land. In this context the allowing of building on flood plains which are now more likely to flood is very irresponsible.
"It is astounding that while making alarmist claims about weather extremes such as floods increasing due to supposed global warming - although the cause of any extra extremes is actually nothing to do with man's carbon dioxide - the Government allows and pursues policies which make certain that heavy rain will cause more and worse floods (and deaths) than otherwise would occur.
THE SCIENCE: The activity on the Sun, which was part of Weather Action's predicted synchronicity of solar events and Sun-Earth magnetic linkages which led to the forecasted thunderfloods and tornadoes of 24th-26th June, showed** a new active region and new sunspots in and building up to the period as predicted and announced by Piers Corbyn at the Institute Of Physics on 7th June (Seminar 'Climate Change - a robust or flawed process?' where Professor Richard Lindzen of Massachusetts Institute Of Technology and Piers Corbyn challenged Global Warming Orthodoxy). He also warned Wimbledon fans of impending rain (Handout of 7th June attached).
[**SEE:
http--www.sec.noaa.gov-ftpdir-latest-DSD.txt For increase in 10.7 radio flux from 23rd June and a new active region and new sunspots 25thJune 2007].
Piers said "Although traditional meteorology is very good at seeing what is heading this way from a few days ahead it does not involve the external solar-based causative and enhancing (or reducing) factors which drive major weather events, so even when it sees something coming traditional meteorology often cannot know if it will get worse or fizzle out. Furthermore through our Solar Weather Technique we can tell 12 months ahead when major solar influences and subsequent weather patters and events will occur down to detail of a few days.
"Our long range forecast shows that in the current phase of the solar-magnetic cycle and other modulations Britain and Europe has been in and will continue to be in a period of 'tight sun-Earth linkages' which are causing more extremes and contrasts of weather events of various types which will continue in Britain and Europe for at least another 12 months. After that there will be less extremes and the general world cooling trend will probably continue (90% sure) at least until 2013 which is as far as we have looked.
CLAIMS OF GLOBAL WARMING CAUSE UNJUSTIFIED IN ANY TERMS: Piers said "These floods were nothing to do with so-called man-made Global Warming. The protagonists of man-is-blame hysteria claim that any weather extreme is down to their theory. This approach amounts to a new religion dressed up as science. Very specifically the claims and innuendo voiced by the BBC Science correspondent, by Baroness Young and by Friends of The Earth that "(These rains and floods) are exactly what climate scientist are predicting (from Global Warming etc)" are unjustifiable in any terms.
The Summary for Policy Makers produced by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel On climate Change) (
(i) Page 8 (top right) reads (concerning an observed likely late 20th century trend) "The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increase of atmospheric water vapour." This means that more warmth makes more evaporation, which of course is true but there is no evidence that Man's CO2 has caused that warming; Furthermore it means that now it is no longer getting warmer these trends must stop. {notwithstanding solar factors}. On this it is important to note there has been no Global Warming since 1998** (or if you consider two year moving averages world temperatures have all been lower since a peak in 2002/03). (**Look carefully at IPCC Report - page 6 top right part of graph). In more detail of course any extra water has to be put there (under their theory) by extra warmth and since atmospheric water only stays around for a matter of weeks we need some significant extra warming in the weeks leading up to late June - which we have not had. Today's weather systems are not affected by what happened in 1998!
(ii) On page 9 bottom of left column: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the global ocean or in small-scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting and dust storms..." (my emphasis). This means that the use by various media of dramatic images of tornadoes associated with the storms as evidence to back-up Global Warming Theory of extremes caused by man-made CO2 are to say the least highly questionable.
"Weather extremes can be better tackled through our long range weather forecasts than by failed quasi-religion posing as science", said Piers
Previous News release...........
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters
Floods DEBATE NEWS 26th JUNE 2007
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Fax +44(0)20 7939 9901 E:
CONTACT Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320
'Religious claims' by Global Warmers are without scientific foundation - and don't not even follow from their own catechism" say long range forecasters
"Claims or suggestions that the recent extreme rain, floods and tornadoes - all of which were forecast to the day by solar activity - were somehow caused by man's CO2 are nonsense bordering on religious cant" said Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of Weather Action long range forecasters today.
Such claims or suggestions were made today, 26th June, by Tony Blair, Baroness Barbara Young and Mike Childs of FOE. Speaking on LBC Radio Piers Corbyn said that the 'Global Warmers' can forecast nothing and just claim every extreme event is evidence of their beliefs.
"The claims about these these storms are all the more absurd because this June has not been warm or hot like they forecast and there has been no Global Warming since 1998** (or if you consider two year moving averages world temperatures have all been lower since a peak in 2002/03). How can we have Global Warming causing something when it isn't itself going on? The weather now does not 'remember ' how warm it was in 1998!" (**Look carefully at IPCC Report - link below -page 6 top right of graph)
Later Mr Corbyn added: "The alarmist claims from the Government and FOE make no sense even in terms of their own catechism - the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Report (
If they were honest these politicians would ask "Oh there is no Warming to cause these events so what is causing them?" We have an answer but probably a new 'expert' will soon be incarnated to reinterpret it all in terms of CO2 which is still increasing becoming a mystical force of its own. This is not science, it borders on religious cant".
What actually caused the tendency for these extreme events - which we at Weather Action predicted - is a special synchronicity between explosive events on the Sun and Sun-Earth magnetic linkage factors.
They tend to happen at certain times in the magnetic cycle of the Sun (subject to other Sun-Earth link modulators) so for example it is not surprising there were a lot of extremes 20-24 years ago (the Sun's magnetic cycle being about 22yrs) - eg hot July 84, bitter winter 84-85; extremely cold Feb 86; Great Storm October 87). It is also noteworthy that some places which suffered recently had larger floods in 1920 which is 87 years or about three magnetic cycles ago.
In the coming 12 months Britain is in for many more extreme events, they are predictable and they are nothing to do with Man's CO2. After that we will have less exciting weather and the general World cooling trend which seems to have started will continue at least to 2013 which is as far as we've got.
In the immediate future any rain this weekned will not be especially heavy (in this case the Met Office computers will underestimate rain amounts) but there will be notably heavy rain and thunderfloods around July 4th-5th and 9th-10th (each give or take a day).
Thank you
Previous News release...
From: Piers Corbyn [mailto:
Sent: Tuesday, June 26, 2007 5:27 PM
To: Weather Action - Floods - Its down to the Sun - More thunderfloods July
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters
Floods Disaster NEWS 25th JUNE 2007
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946 Fax +44(0)20 7939 9901 E:
CONTACT Piers Corbyn +44(0)7958713320
UK Flood disaster caused by special activity from the sun. Detailed warnings were issued by Weather Action long range forecasters. More floods to come in July.
[NOTE to media. Please be clear when quoting any of this Release that it is from WEATHER ACTION LONG RANGE FORECASTERS. Please do NOT descibe us generally with 'forecasters'. We create forecasts by different techniques to all others; and compared with any other 'long range forecasters' we, uniquely, have a proven significant success rate. All other efforts at 'long range forecsting' have no success rate better than tossing a coin. If you do quote other long range forecasts we recommend you also their producers for and quote their success rate.
The imminence of torential rain, floods and thunder 24th-26th June "worse than anything the Met Office would predict from even 12 hours ahead" was warned months and weeks ahead (even being announced at the Institute Of Physics on 7th June) by Weather Action - the long range forecasters who generate their impressive forecasts from predicable effects of charged particles coming from the Sun. The next rounds of notably heavy rain, hail, floods and thunder will be around 4th-5th and 9th-10th July say Weather Action.
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of Weather Action said "All the major storms and floods this month were in the periods we predicted many months ago and are due to extraordinary solar particle and magnetic effects. Forecast details issued on May 31st and special warnings of floods sent out to customers on 11th June correctly gave specific warnings that Intensities of rain wind thunder and floods would be significantly greater (++see below) than would be suggested by (traditional meteorology) TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead (**details below)."
In another important success this month the two time periods Weather Action specified for Highest Risk of tornado type formations this June were confirmed with tornadoes in Hereford (period 12-15 June), and Lincolnshire (period 24th-26th June).
"These flood and thunder disasters are nothing to do with so-called man-made global warming. In fact traditional meteorologists in the man-made climate doom camp had predicted a hot sunny June. So where has their summer gone? No doubt we will hear claims that these extremes are evidence of their man-is-to-blame theories whereas in fact they can forecast nothing. One wonders, what do they forecast for the rest of the summer and wll they put bets on it ? (see News Release 22nd June below).
"This June's weather is closer to the normal variable sort of British summer which Bono wants us all to suffer. As far as I am concerned global warming is a good thing - like it was in warmer times from 9,000 to 900 years ago, but anyhow none of it is caused by man and in fact there has been no global warming since world temperatures peaked in 1998".
Thank you
+++Info: On Sat 23rd/ Sunday 24th the Met Office TV forecasts first warned of 'up to (almost) 3inches of rain to come in places', then 'up to 4inches' and on Monday 25th they warned of 'a further 4 inches to come"]
**Sent to customers 11th June, other warnings see further below.
24th-26th JUNE Dramatic thunderstorms.
This period is 'EA' TOP level which means that wherever they occur rain and hail and thunderstorms will be locally very heavy and threaten transport and services through flash floods and lightning strikes and hail damage and could lead - following on from the previous period - to difficulties in some personnel getting to work. Intensities will be significantly greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead.
(see further below for fuller details)
Previous release Sent: Saturday, June 23, 2007 1:36 AM..........
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters
Rain & Floods NEWS 22nd JUNE 2007
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
Weather Action long range forecasters 'happy' about Wimbledon and Glastonbury washouts to come. 'Global Warmers' challenged to place bets on "their summer that isn't"
The washouts looming over Glastonbury and Wimbledon were warned of in Weather Action's month ahead forecast circulated to customers at the end of May. Piers Corbyn astrophysicist of Weather Action also specifically warned of the Wimbledon washout at a special seminar at the Institute Of Physics, London, on June 7th, where he alongside Prof Richard Lindzen from Massachusetts Institue Of Technology challenged current Global Warming theory.
Piers Corbyn said today "I am happy that these washouts are coming - and they will be WORSE than anything the Met Office will say even from 12 hours ahead - because it confirms our long range forecast which also correctly predicted the recent periods of devastaing floods especially affecting road, rail, electricity and farming. However I, like everyone affected, am distressed that those who control institutions who should behave more responsibly do not apply our forecasts and prepare to help the public in advance. Instead they are more interested in defending failed politically motivated theories of man-made Global warning which can predict nothing; so they shun our scientific forecasts which depend on predictable aspects of particle and magnetic efects from the Sun".
"The Global Warmers must tell the public where their 'hot summer' has gone and I challenge them to place bets (eg on Betfair.com ) that: This summer sometime in England or Wales will exceed 91F (we do not think it will) and place wagers with me on British and on World temperatures this year which we forecast - contrary to their predictions - will not be record breakers." (NB These bets on British and World temperatures were offered by Piers Corbyn in January but no-one has taken him up)
THANK YOU
Previous Press release-----Original Message-----
Subject: FW: ++> WARNING OF SURPRISE FLOODS which the Met Office wouldn't see coming issued by Weather Action 4 days before the torrents .....
Weather Action The Long Range Forecasters FLOODS NEWS 15th JUNE 2007
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR
WARNINGS OF SURPRISE FLOODS which the Met Office wouldn't see coming issued by Weather Action 4 days before the floods.
- Wet period 12th-14th June first forecast by Weather Action 6 months ahead.
- 16th-19th June will be finer than Met Office say.
- Another serious deluge with dramatic thunderstorms 24th-26th June.
The dramatic floods which brought rail and road services to a standstill on 15th June (due to torrents of rain in the previous 2 days) especially in the Midlands and NorthEast England were forewarned with incredible accuracy to the customers of Weather Action the long range forecasters who explicitly stated that the Met Office wouln't see the torrents coming even 12 hours ahead.
In a specific SEVERE weather warning issued on 11th June to their leading customers to reinforce their 6month ahead forecast and month ahead extra detail Weather Action stated: "...rain and hail and thunderstorms (will) threaten transport and services through flash floods hail and lightning strikes. Intensities will be greater than that suggested by TV forecasts even 12 hours ahead..."
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist and founder of Weather Action said:-
"These floods are a tremendous confirmation of our newly upgraded Solar Weather Technique of long range forecasting. We specifically warned certain rail organisations of likley flooding. Plenty of operations in commerce and insurance of course were not warned because they rely on the traditional meteorology approach but that science has reached its limits of accuracy.
The Met Office forecasts will also be wanting in the next few days which will be less wet than they have been suggesting. Another wave of rainstorms will hit Britain - especially the South - from around the 20th but especially 24th-26th June - when dramatic thunderstorms will surpass the expectaions of TV forecasters and probably whack Wimbledon.
"Weather Action forecasts work by using predicatble aspects of charged particle activity from the Sun while traditional meteorology ignores these factosr.
"Of course we can all expect the usual drivel from the 'Global Warming lobby' who will doubtless suggest these floods are caused by mankind's CO2. They have no evidence for such alarmist nonsense. The fact is that extreme weather events and contrasty type rapid changes in weather types tend to come in waves roughly every 20 to 24 years due to magnetic changes on the Sun. There will be more SERIOUS extreme events in the coming 12 months. For more information see please visit www.weatheraction.com
Thank you Piers Corbyn 07958713320 / 02079399946
END OF RELEASE THANK YOU
PIERS CORBYN
e-mail:
piers@weatheraction.com
Homepage:
http://www.weatheraction.com