Jennette Arnold is chair of the Labour Group on the London Assembly. Whilst there might be a lot of people who read Indymedia that have little interest in what a Labour politician has to say, she sets out very convincingly an argument as to how voting in May's London Assembly elections for anyone but the BNP will decrease their chances of gaining any seats. The article is from the Guardian: 
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jennette_arnold/2008/03/why_i_fear_the_bnp.html
To summarise: Seats are awarded proportionally. The BNP need 5% of the vote to get a seat. The more people who vote for anyone other than the BNP, the more votes the BNP need to secure to win a seat. Simple as that!
VOTE!
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/jennette_arnold/2008/03/why_i_fear_the_bnp.html To summarise: Seats are awarded proportionally. The BNP need 5% of the vote to get a seat. The more people who vote for anyone other than the BNP, the more votes the BNP need to secure to win a seat. Simple as that!
VOTE!
Why I Fear the BNP
By Jennette Arnold
Like a dangerous dog, the threat from the British National Party in the London Assembly elections has been allowed to lie. But the realisation that they need just 5% of the capital's vote to win seats in May is now slowly dawning. The shock that this awakening has taken so long alarmed me almost as much as the threat itself.
The facts are stark. For one seat on the assembly, the BNP need just 5% of the vote. For two seats they need 8% and for three seats 11%. For anyone doubting how achievable these targets are, at the last GLA elections in 2004 they got 4.8% - just 5,000 votes away from credibility and a stepping stone to further power.
Though the BNP is currently wracked by internal wrangling and financial turmoil, any success in London would galvanise its supporters, give the party UK-wide credence as an electable force and set in motion worrying momentum heading into next year's European elections. Or, as they put it: "If we are successful it will send shockwaves through the media and the establishment and will really propel the BNP into the political premier league."
As someone who adores multi-cultural, multi-coloured and multi-racial London, it's a terrifying thought.
The BNP terrify me not because they are a racist, thuggish bunch who thrive on hate and fear - though of course they are - but because they represent the polar opposite of my political beliefs. For me, politics is about the power of collective action, in all its forms, as the driver for achieving change. This was my philosophy as a member of the church, then a nursing trade union official and finally as a Labour politician. I have always believed in the power of the collective will of the majority to improve lives and communities. In contrast, the BNP are a fascist minority who manipulate grievances to divide the communities they infect. It is their pernicious scape-goating, based on racism but thriving on fear of 'the other', that I so despise.
There is a danger - and I have seen it here at City Hall - that progressive-minded people will shrug their shoulders. The pervasive attitude that says: "It won't happen here. The BNP blights Oldham and Burnley but not our great multi-cultural capital. We're above all that."
But the far right's recent successes should serve as a wake-up call. In Barking and Dagenham two years ago they won 11 out of 35 council seats with 8,000 votes (remember they only need 5,000 more across the whole of London for an assembly seat). They have polled 10% in wards in Havering, Sutton, Croydon, Lewisham, Hillingdon and Enfield - all areas where UKIP have previously done well.
Why do I talk about UKIP? In 2004, when the BNP were in touching distance of an assembly seat, the GLA and European elections were held on the same day. UKIP punched above their weight by exploiting the shared date and won two seats. Excellent work by the anti-fascist group Searchlight and the Joseph Rowntree Trust has found that, with UKIP (now called One London) all but finished as an electoral force and with no European elections this year, as many as 20% of their supporters could switch to the BNP. This would give the racist party 6.5% even before their growth in the capital since 2004 is taken into account. More than enough to get them elected.
It is far from a forgone conclusion, though. The BNP are the most despised political party in Britain and London's diverse population means that 35% of voters should automatically oppose them. The problem comes with the word "automatically".
It is not enough to be automatically or naturally opposed to the hideous ideology of the far-right. What matters is getting out and voting. And, because of the electoral system, it is not enough to say it won't happen in, say, Hackney or Hampstead. It is the party's share of the vote across the whole of London that counts. So the more votes that are cast the higher the bar will be that the BNP have to reach.
An increased turnout is the only way to stop the BNP gaining a foothold in London. If 45% of Londoners turn out to vote, the BNP would need 120,000 votes for one seat and almost 200,000 for two. In 2004 they got 90,000 votes.
One upshot of the high profile fight for the mayoralty is that the increased media attention should encourage people to get out and vote. Let's hope so. With the nation's eyes on the capital, the British far right have their best chance in recent years of gaining respectability and - as the BNP see it - a springboard to further political power. But if London's mainstream majority are alive to the threat and get out to vote, the capital and the country will have a lot to be thankful for.
By Jennette Arnold
Like a dangerous dog, the threat from the British National Party in the London Assembly elections has been allowed to lie. But the realisation that they need just 5% of the capital's vote to win seats in May is now slowly dawning. The shock that this awakening has taken so long alarmed me almost as much as the threat itself.
The facts are stark. For one seat on the assembly, the BNP need just 5% of the vote. For two seats they need 8% and for three seats 11%. For anyone doubting how achievable these targets are, at the last GLA elections in 2004 they got 4.8% - just 5,000 votes away from credibility and a stepping stone to further power.
Though the BNP is currently wracked by internal wrangling and financial turmoil, any success in London would galvanise its supporters, give the party UK-wide credence as an electable force and set in motion worrying momentum heading into next year's European elections. Or, as they put it: "If we are successful it will send shockwaves through the media and the establishment and will really propel the BNP into the political premier league."
As someone who adores multi-cultural, multi-coloured and multi-racial London, it's a terrifying thought.
The BNP terrify me not because they are a racist, thuggish bunch who thrive on hate and fear - though of course they are - but because they represent the polar opposite of my political beliefs. For me, politics is about the power of collective action, in all its forms, as the driver for achieving change. This was my philosophy as a member of the church, then a nursing trade union official and finally as a Labour politician. I have always believed in the power of the collective will of the majority to improve lives and communities. In contrast, the BNP are a fascist minority who manipulate grievances to divide the communities they infect. It is their pernicious scape-goating, based on racism but thriving on fear of 'the other', that I so despise.
There is a danger - and I have seen it here at City Hall - that progressive-minded people will shrug their shoulders. The pervasive attitude that says: "It won't happen here. The BNP blights Oldham and Burnley but not our great multi-cultural capital. We're above all that."
But the far right's recent successes should serve as a wake-up call. In Barking and Dagenham two years ago they won 11 out of 35 council seats with 8,000 votes (remember they only need 5,000 more across the whole of London for an assembly seat). They have polled 10% in wards in Havering, Sutton, Croydon, Lewisham, Hillingdon and Enfield - all areas where UKIP have previously done well.
Why do I talk about UKIP? In 2004, when the BNP were in touching distance of an assembly seat, the GLA and European elections were held on the same day. UKIP punched above their weight by exploiting the shared date and won two seats. Excellent work by the anti-fascist group Searchlight and the Joseph Rowntree Trust has found that, with UKIP (now called One London) all but finished as an electoral force and with no European elections this year, as many as 20% of their supporters could switch to the BNP. This would give the racist party 6.5% even before their growth in the capital since 2004 is taken into account. More than enough to get them elected.
It is far from a forgone conclusion, though. The BNP are the most despised political party in Britain and London's diverse population means that 35% of voters should automatically oppose them. The problem comes with the word "automatically".
It is not enough to be automatically or naturally opposed to the hideous ideology of the far-right. What matters is getting out and voting. And, because of the electoral system, it is not enough to say it won't happen in, say, Hackney or Hampstead. It is the party's share of the vote across the whole of London that counts. So the more votes that are cast the higher the bar will be that the BNP have to reach.
An increased turnout is the only way to stop the BNP gaining a foothold in London. If 45% of Londoners turn out to vote, the BNP would need 120,000 votes for one seat and almost 200,000 for two. In 2004 they got 90,000 votes.
One upshot of the high profile fight for the mayoralty is that the increased media attention should encourage people to get out and vote. Let's hope so. With the nation's eyes on the capital, the British far right have their best chance in recent years of gaining respectability and - as the BNP see it - a springboard to further political power. But if London's mainstream majority are alive to the threat and get out to vote, the capital and the country will have a lot to be thankful for.
Comments
Hide the following 17 comments
Tricky argument
07.03.2008 11:41
The Green Man
e-mail:
Man@Green.com
NeoNazis already in government
07.03.2008 13:11
I am very interested in what she has to say when she is on trial for her complicity in the Iraqi genocide.
Labour voters have killed millions more innocents than the BNP supporters over their last term of misrule. Voters in England don't seem to have any options except to vote for parties who are complicit in genocide, like this Labour party hypocrite is. I have to say though, if the murderous racist BNP were in government in Engerland, fewer foriegners would have been killed by this crones corporate sponsors. Even the BNP were against the Iraq genocide - unlike this hypocrital careerist.
Danny
curious
07.03.2008 13:30
Ken Deadingstone
Pathetic attempt to get votes for the fascist Labour party
07.03.2008 14:51
Enai
Yawn
07.03.2008 15:09
This is just scraping the barrel - of course many Londoners don't want to vote, because there's nothing to vote for (unless you "like" funding wars and paying higher taxes) and that is their democratic choice.
City worker
Voting solves nothing
07.03.2008 15:41
Stopping the BNP involves presenting a real alternative to the choice of neo-liberal and far-right, a choice which is not just the same old party-political bollocks, which is a plausible and practical means for people to take back control of their own lives and which explodes all the lies, misrepresentations and divisive propaganda which is being spewed from the mouths of politicians and media presenters.
It needs to speak to the people who are thinking of joining the BNP, not to the people who never would anyway. Only then will the threat of the BNP be smashed, as opposed to the kind of hopeful and temporary displacement-by-vote, in favour of a different kind of rapacious exploiter, which is being espoused here.
RR
Collective will
07.03.2008 16:09
Then where's my fucking referendum, bitch?!?
MonkeyBot 5000
Our only hope
07.03.2008 16:13
DW
Check out the Guardian article's comments section
07.03.2008 16:32
They sound like they desperately want to be anarchists, but they're waiting for someone to give them permission.
MonkeyBot
Of course!
07.03.2008 17:31
The point is the maths: The more people vote for anyone other than the BNP, the harder job the BNP have in getting seats. I'm not particularly thrilled by either Labour, Lib Dem, the Greens or Respect (and certainly not the Tories!); but to think that it really doesn't matter whether the BNP get elected or not seems nuts.
I suggest picking any one of the above parties OR EVEN VOTING BY SPOILING YOUR BALLOT as a way of raising the bar of what the BNP need to get.
None of this means needing to endorse the Labour Party, war, neoliberalism or anything else. And stopping the BNP getting a seat is certainly not the be all and end all of anti-fascism, let alone building a new, anti-capitalist social reality. But honestly, I really think the BNP winning a seat would be a bad thing for anyone in London or elsewhere.
X
Re: Of course
07.03.2008 18:25
If spoiled ballot papers are counted as part of the total and the percentage required to win x number of seats is set, then it raises an interesting question.
How many spoiled ballots would you need to prevent all of the seats being filled?
You'll never get enough people to prevent anyone getting a seat, but one seat going unfilled could send a message. There must be a lot of people who don't vote because they don't want to support any of the parties.
MonkeyBot 5000
Vote Green party & keep revolutionary roots
07.03.2008 19:08
The left should back them & stop bickering,
Sod the BNP's political apartheid politics, they are nazis, millions have died in Iraq & Afghanistan from starvation & infant mortality as well as war casualties. But Nazis have a record of mass deliberate extermination camps of 10'smillions , plus100millions in a shorter period+ disregard for nature therefore. It was policy of nazis to kill babies, the BNP party are nazis who worship Hitler!
If you wont green or work towards libertarian municipalism, spoil your ballot, dont just moan
George Orwell
Uhuh...
07.03.2008 23:57
You can vote for who the hell you like, or no-one (though spoiling ballots won't affect the first past the post system at all), but it won't make the slightest difference to the rise of the BNP either short or long term. You want to stop them? Give their supporters a viable alternative, don't just mindlessly repeat the mantra 'my enemy's enemy is my friend'.
Exactly how are the Green party planning to outmanouver international capital to bring about a socialist utopia in one country after they've elected these few hundred reps into 'controlling' (Yes Minister!) state assets by the way?
And don't pretend the greens' electoral hopes have anything to do with anarchist theory for chrissake it's just embarrassing.
RR
manufacturing apathy
08.03.2008 02:17
and vote away at least some of the apathy
Tony Gosling
Homepage:
http://bilderberg.org
PR
08.03.2008 13:48
London Assembly elections function not on a first past the post, but a proportional representational system (to be precisely, a "mixed member proportional representation" system, see Wikipedia definition here:
So, voting for anyone other than the BNP -- including spoiling your ballot -- bumps up the total number of votes, meaning that the BNP need to get more votes to reach the 5% target to get a seat.
X
Wtf
09.03.2008 14:34
Because I'm an anarchist you cretin! 'an'-archy=without authority, being into things like direct democracy and a full understanding of the nature of hierarchy and power relations.
Anyway if you're into the big tin-foil hat conspiracy that is 'Bilderberg' surely who gets into the commons/mayoral seats should mean even less to you than it does to me, I mean whoever's in there is going to be beholden to the lizard men anyway right?
Cheers for explaining X but that only addresses the bit in brackets, how is voting supposed to stop the BNP from gaining ground in working class estates now and in the future? And if it can't, what's the point?
I mean one BNP guy (as has happened in all the other councils where this has happened) just ends up getting sidelined and isn't a threat to anyone. The only threat is what he represents, which is mass support for his ideas - something you can't dissipate by voting against him.
RR
...
09.03.2008 22:41
You're completely right, it won't. Voting is certainly not the way to bring about necessary and desired radical changes in our society, which isn't the same as saying that one shouldn't do it or that it doesn't make any difference. Vote against the BNP (Green, Respect, spoiling yer ballot, whatever...) to make it more difficult for the BNP to get elected. But obviously, more day to day organisation and struggle is needed to bring about change.
X