Many different people predict a wide variety of timescales for peak oil and the downslide on the other side. Some people say we have already peaked and others say we've got maybe another six or even eight years. However, the nature of the problem means that we'll only know we've reach global peak after the event as we look back on falling production figures....
Those watching the business news for signs of peak oil will no doubt take for following report as a pretty strong indicator to support the view that we've either passed peak or that it will be very soon.
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
BP in London issued a statement on Monday saying that their global oil and gas production appears to have fallen 2.5 pct in the second quarter of this year, despite their stated goal of raising production. BP earnings will still beat the same period of 2005 thanks to the high price of crude at the moment but the market is nether-the-less suprised by this fall which is significantly greater than most analysts had expected.
The global demand for oil is increasing at around 2 percent a year which means that oil companies are struggling to increase their supplies in order to maintain market share. The competition is obviously massive (see Iraq for the ultimate example) and a fall in production indicates a major stumble.
It's not all been bad news for BP. Production rose 12 percent for their joint venture with Russia, TNK-BP, compared to the same period last year but with output falling a massive 4 percent for all of their other fields, things don't look good.
The company blame the problem on divestment which seems strange as BP is the world's second largest fully publicly traded oil company and has a stated goal of raising production to between 4.1 and 4.2 million boepd in 2006. The thing about peak oil however is that the law of deminishing returns kicks in massively as you approach peak and it doesn't matter how much energy and money you spend post peak, the productions figures can only continue to fall.
So, what are you doing to prepare for peak? It might be sooner than you think and if you think it will just mean more expensive fuel and less cars then you seriously need to look at how the world really works.
(find out more about peak oil at the coming climate camp and meet up with other people thinking about the way forward)
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ASPO5 conference
05.07.2006 16:42
ASPO 5. 18-19 July 2006 – San Rossore, Pisa, Italy.
Monday, 17 July
All day: ASPO Committees meetings, Grand Hotel Duomo
14:30-18:00 Registration – Grand Hotel Duomo - Via S.Maria, 94 - PISA
18:00 – Reception offered by the Mayor of Pisa, City Hall, Pisa
18:30 – Projection of the film “The Power of Community” (City Hall, Pisa) (limited seats available)
Tuesday 18, Parco di San Rossore - Pisa
MAIN SESSION (1st tent)
8:30-9:30 Registration
9:30 Ugo Bardi (ASPO-Italy), Introduction to the conference
9:45 Marino Artusa (environment ministry of the Tuscan Region) Welcome address
10:00- 10:40 Colin Campbell (ASPO Honorary Chairman) – Keynote speech; The Age of Oil in Perspective
10:40-11:00- coffee break
1st session: PEAK OIL I
11:00-11:30 Kjell Aleklett (President, ASPO international), A world addicted to Oil, it is time to Sober up
11:30-12:00 Richard Heinberg, (New College of California; Post Carbon Institute) The Oil Depletion Protocol: A Plan to Avert Oil Wars, Terrorism, and Economic Collapse
12:00 – 12:30 Chris Skrebowsky (ODAC and Petroleum Review), Peak Oil - the Emerging Reality
12:30-13:00 Robert Hirsch (Science Applications International Corp.) Mitigation of Peak Oil - More Numbers
13:00 – 14:00 lunch
2nd session: PEAK OIL II
14:10 - 14:50Leonardo Maugeri (ENI) Title to be announced– Keynote Speech
14:50 – 15:20 Jean Laherrere (ASPO-France), Uncertainty on data and forecasts
15:20 – 15:45 Pierre René Baquis (ASPO-France) What future for hydrocarbons with the incoming peaks of oil and gas?
15:45 – 16:10 Jean Marie Bourdaire (ASPO-France) World Energy and Economy: What perspectives to 2050?
3rd session: GAS AND COAL
16:10 - 16:40 Peter Gerling (BGR, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Germany), Coal - the prime energy of the future?
16:40 -17:10 Francesco Racheli (GE – Oil and Gas), Technology evolution to monetize ’stranded GAS’
17:10 -17:30 Marek Kolodzej, (University of Illinois) The North American Natural Gas Crisis
17:30 - snack and drinks
17: 30 – 19:30 POSTER SESSION
20:00 – social dinner -
19 July
4th session MODELLING
9:00 – 9:40 Dennis Meadows, (Laboratory for Interactive Learning Durham, NH, USA)– Keynote speech, Peak oil and the limits to growth
9:40-10:10 Charles Hall (State University of New York) EROI: The Key Variable in Assessing Alternative Energy Futures 10:10-10:40 Renato Guseo, University of Padova. World Oil Depletion: Diffusion Models, Price Effects, Strategic and Technological Interventions
10:40 -10:55 Ton Trjssenaar (Independent Expert) Jeu de Joule, a model for world energy
10:55 -11:10 Bertrand Michel (Institut Francais du Petrole) Oil Production : A probabilistic model of Hubbert’s curve
11:10-11:20- coffee break
5th session ECONOMICS AND MARKETS
11:20 – 11:50 Mahmoud Salameh, (Oil Market Consultancy Service) Peak Oil and the Rising Crude Oil Price
11:50 – 12:20 Andrew MCKillop (Ecohabitat), Oil prices and the economy: facts, views and opinions
12:20 – 12:40 Luca Barillaro (Compendium Consulting), New financial products: their impact on energy markets
12:40 -14:00 lunch
Afternoon 19
6th session GLOBAL ISSUES I
14:00-14:40 Jeremy Leggett: (SolarCentury), Keynote Speech Peak oil, climate change, and the daunting arithmetic of carbon fuels.
14:40-15:10 Paul Metz (Integer Consult), Peak Oil & CSR - for newcomers, Corporate Social Responsibility
15:10-15:40 Rob Hopkins (Transition Culture) Plan B - enabling relocalisation as a response to peak oil
15:40- 16:10 Folke Gunther (Holon Ecosystem Consultants) Oil depletion and food depletion
7th session GLOBAL ISSUES II
16:20-16:50 Marcello Colitti (Independent Expert) The New Priority of the Oil Companies 16:50-17:20 Terence Ward, (Independent Expert) Iran and the US - Confrontation, Oil Disruption and the Impact
17:20-17:50 Chris Sanders, (Sanders Research associates) NATO: Out of Area and Out of Oil - the war for energy and the end of free markets
18:00-18:30 – Conclusion and Final Remarks
PARALLEL SESSIONS (2nd tent)
8th session PANEL ON POST PEAK ISSUES
Tuesday 18, 15:00-17:30
Folke Gunther
Rob Hopkins
Faith Morgan
Richard Heinberg…..
9th session ASPO SHOW
Wednesday 19. 10:00 -12:30
Public presentation of national ASPO associations
Kjell Aleklett (ASPO International) - Keynote
Dick Lawrence (ASPO USA)
Luca Mercalli (ASPO Italy)
Hirose/Okubo (ASPO Japan)
Bruce Robinson (ASPO Australia)
…… (ASPO China)
…….. (ASPO Norway)
……… (ASPO Indonesia)
program
Greg Palast says Oil Empire aimed at NOT producing oil--Peak Oil Theory trumped
06.07.2006 08:59
So how do the Peak Oil fanatics reconcile the fact that one of the Left's most prominant investigative reporters has produced documented proof that Big Oil has been actually trying to limit availability of "proven reserves" for the last 80 years? Well, they can't. Palast's book, Armed Madhouse, has without really aiming to do so, proven that conventional theories of "peak oil" are Big Oil originated and aimed at formulating public opinion.
While many progressives spend their time ranting and raving about "peak oil," there is no longer any doubt that Big Oil and the disinformationists they employ are celebrating their victory of propaganda. Progressives could be applying all the energy that goes into the bogus "peak oil" theory into civil rights, constitutional law, the illegal war, voter fraud, etc. Yet they are wasting their energies on a conspiracy theory of "peak oil" that was instigated, financed by, and used to influence Congressional action by the very same Big Oil culprits they condemn.
repost
Homepage:
http://portland.indymedia.org/en/2006/07/342119.shtml
Yeah, obviously...
10.07.2006 14:12
"If Peak Oil is a myth generated by the oil industry, why is the industry gearing up to extract the much more difficult to get, much more expensive to extract oil from shale and sand? If they have plenty of oil, they would continue to pump the easily and cheaply extracted oil, would they not? A fact is, I've followed up on all the info that I've seen presented on Indymedia by Peak Oil debunkers, and a lot of it just doesn't add up or is so poorly supported as to be just rhetoric.
That the US might have captured Iraq oil resources to prevent it being pumped as fast, is not necessarily incompatible with Peak Oil. It could be that the US leadership knows the easily extracted oil is running out, and therefore has been moving to obtain oil resources that can be used when most of the world has "run out" or at least run out of the petroleum that is practical to get at. So, they're not sitting on it just to keep prices high, but rather to have the means of food production / transportation / etc. later while the rest of the developed world is desperate.
Plenty of info here:
Oil companies are required to file certain records regarding their investment activities, it should not be difficult to determine where / what they are mining for somebody who wants to look into that info. To the best of my knowledge (from getting news from a variety of pro- and anti- Peak Oil sources) the oil industry has been relying more and more on the more difficult to extract and lower-quality petroleum, a sure sign that the total resources are running out.
Regardless of whether Peak Oil is nigh or something much farther in the future, the course of action for the common person should be no different. Whether there is still plenty to harvest and it is being hoarded, or is running out, the pollution from burning fossil fuel still has huge consequences (asthma, cancers, many other types of illnesses, catastrophic climate change) and the policies resulting from dependence on this resource are going to cause suffering all over the planet (military invasions, theft of land, support for despotic oil-friendly leaders).
The answer to me is plenty clear: start moving away from oil consumption now. I started years ago. I now bike for transportation, most of my food comes from local farms (still uses some petroleum but increasingly more local biofuel and much less than buying imported food), and I often make things I need from local materials rather than buy imported stuff. What amazes me the most is that I didn't start doing all of this sooner. It has been very liberating to have fewer expenses and more time since I've structured my life so that I rarely need to leave the neighborhood. "
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