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Save Yourselves

Timekeeper | 22.06.2005 13:07 | Analysis | Culture | Ecology | London | World

The long-term implications of Peak Oil on your way of life
are nothing short of mind blowing. As we slide down the
downslope of the global oil production curve, we may find
ourselves slipping into what some scientists are calling a
“post-industrial stone age.”

Dear Reader,
Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is
not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse
bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it
is the scientific conclusion of the most widely-respected
geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world.
These are rational, professional, conservative individuals
who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as
global “Peak Oil.”
“Are We ‘Running Out’? I Thought There Was 40
Years of the Stuff Left”
Oil will not just “run out” because all oil production
follows a curve. This is true whether we’re talking about an
individual oil field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.
Oil is increasingly plentiful on the upslope of the curve,
increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The
peak of the curve coincides with the point at which 50
percent of the oil has been used. Once the peak is passed,
oil production begins to go down while cost begins to go
up.
In practical and considerably oversimplified terms, this
means that if 2000 was the year of global Peak Oil,
worldwide oil production in the year 2020 will be the
same as it was in 1980. However, the world’s population
in 2020 will be both much larger (approximately double
1980) and much more industrialized (oil-dependent) than
it was in 1980. Consequently, worldwide demand for oil
will outpace worldwide production of oil by a significant
margin. As a result, the price will skyrocket, oil-dependant
economies will crumble, and resource wars will explode.
The issue is not one of “running out” so much as it is
not having enough to keep our economy running. In this
regard, the results of Peak Oil for our civilization are
similar to the implications of dehydration for the human
body. The human body is 70 percent water. The body of a
200 pound man thus holds 140 pounds of water. Because
water is so crucial to everything the human body does, the
man doesn’t need to lose all 140 pounds of water weight
before collapsing due to dehydration. A loss of as little as
10-15 pounds of water may be enough.
In a similar sense, an oil-based economy such as ours
doesn’t have to deplete its entire reserve of oil before it
begins to collapse. A shortfall between demand and supply
as little as 10-15 percent is enough to wholly shatter an oildependent
economy and reduce its citizenry to poverty.
The effects of even a small drop in production can be
devastating. For instance, during the 1970s oil shocks,
shortfalls in production as small as 5% caused the price
of oil to nearly quadruple. The same thing happened in
California a few years ago with natural gas: a production
drop of less than 5% caused prices to skyrocket by 400%.
The coming oil shocks won’t be so short-lived. They
represent the onset of a new, permanent condition. Once
the decline gets under way, production will drop by 3% at
least per year, every year.
That estimate comes from numerous sources, not the least
of which is Vice President Dick Cheney himself. In a 1999
speech he gave while still CEO of Halliburton, Cheney
stated: By some estimates, there will be an average of twopercent
annual growth in global oil demand over the years
ahead, along with, conservatively, a three-percent natural
decline in production from existing reserves.That means by
2010 we will need on the order of anadditional 50 million
barrels a day.
Cheney’s assesement is supported by the estimates of
numerous non-political, retired, and working scientists,
many of whom believe global oil production will peak and
go into terminal decline within the next five years.
Some geologists expect 2005 to be the last year of the
cheap-oil bonanza, while estimates coming out of the
oil industry indicate “a seemingly unbridgeable supplydemand
gap opening up after 2007,” which will lead to
major fuel shortages and increasingly severe blackouts
beginning around 2008-2012.
The long-term implications of Peak Oil on your way of life
are nothing short of mind blowing. As we slide down the
downslope of the global oil production curve, we may find
ourselves slipping into what some scientists are calling a
“post-industrial stone age.”
Peak Oil is also called “Hubbert’s Peak,” named for the
Shell geologist Dr. Marion King Hubbert. In 1956, Hubbert
accurately predicted that US domestic oil production would
peak in 1970. He also predicted global production would
peak in 1995, which it would have had the politically
created oil shocks of the 1970s not delayed the peak for
about 10-15 years.
“Big deal. If prices get high, I’ll just drive less. Why
should I give a damn?”
Because petrochemicals are key components to much more
than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer
points out in his article entitled, “Eating Fossil Fuels,”
approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to
produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.
The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step
of modern production is fossil fuel and petrochemical
powered:
1. Farming implements such as tractors and trailers are
constructed and powered using oil;
2. Food transport and storage systems such as
refrigerators are manufactured in oil-powered
plants, distributed across oil-powered transportation
networks.
3. In the US, the average piece of food is transported
almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In
Canada, the average piece of food is transported
5,000 miles from where it is produced to where it is
consumed.
4. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia,
which is made from natural gas, which will peak about
10 years after oil peaks;
5. Pesticides are made from oil;
It’s not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely
dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water
distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered
by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.
In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern
medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics,
all computers and all high-tech devices.
Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to
which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels:
1. The construction of an average car consumes the
energy equivalent of approximately 27 barrels (1,142
gallons) of oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will
consume an amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice
the car’s final weight.
2. The production of one gram of microchips consumes
630 grams of fossil fuels. According to the American
Chemical Society, the construction of single 32
megabyte RAM chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels
in addition to 70.5 pounds of water.
3. The construction of the average desktop computer
consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.
4. The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due
to the “purity and sophistication of materials (needed
for) a microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine
or ten computers is enough to produce an automobile.”
When considering the role of oil in the production of
modern technology, remember that most alternative
systems of energy — including solar panels/solarnanotechnology,
windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel
production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. — rely on
sophisticated technology.
In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper,
and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted,
transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery.
For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of
Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes: To produce a
ton of copper requires the equivalent of 17.8 barrels of
oil. The energy cost component of aluminum is twenty
times higher.
Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered,
extracted, and transported using oil-powered machinery.
Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such
as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech,
oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture described
above.
In short, the so called “alternatives” to oil are actually
“derivatives” of oil. Without an abundant and reliable
supply of oil, we have no way of making enough
alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern
world.
“Is the Modern Banking System Entirely Dependent
on Cheap Oil?”
The global financial system is entirely dependent on a
constantly increasing supply of oil. Since as explained
above, all modern economic activity from transportation
to food production to manufacturing is dependent
on oil supplies, money is really just a symbol for oil.
Commentator Robert Wise observes: money equals
energy. Real, liquid wealth represents usable energy. Real
cost reflects the energy cost of doing something. Nearly
all the work done in the world economy -- all the
manufacturing, construction, and transportation -- is
done with energy derived from oil. The actual work done
by human muscle power is miniscule by comparison. And,
the lion’s share of that fuel comes from oil and natural gas,
the primary sources of the world’s wealth.
As Dr. Colin Campbell writes in “The Financial
Consequences of Peak Oil,” the continued expansion
of this wealth is only possible so long as the oil supply
continues to grow: It is becoming evident that the financial
and investment community begins to accept the reality
of Peak Oil, which ends the First Half of the Age of Oil.
They accept that banks created capital during this epoch by
lending more than they had on deposit, being confident that
Tomorrow’s Expansion, fueled by cheap oil-based energy,
was adequate collateral or Today’s Debt.
The decline of oil, the principal driver of economic growth,
undermines the validity of that collateral which in turn
erodes the valuation of most companys quoted on Stock
Exchanges.
Consequently, a declining supply of oil must be
accompanied by either a declining supply of money or
by hyperinflation. In either case, the result for the global
banking system is the same: collapse.
This financial collapse will, in turn, further devastate our
ability to implement alternative systems of energy. Any
crash program to develop new sources of energy will
require a tremendous amount of capital, which is exactly
what will not be available once the global monetary system
has collapsed.
Start planning NOW. What you will do when the oil runs
out. There is no alternative.
PASS THIS ON

Timekeeper

Comments

Hide the following 12 comments

"Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon"

22.06.2005 13:55

I don't think I have ever read a post on IM more full of holes. Utter, Utter rubbish. Crap like this adds nothing to the debate and the work needed to reduce our reliance on oil.

what utter tosh


if it's tosh

22.06.2005 14:45

and so full of holes then kindly enlighten us thickos what all those holes are. Or are you just knee jerking cos your lifestyle is threatened? We need a better explanation than just one deny-it-all sentence.

somewhat interested


Hmmm

22.06.2005 15:30

Perhaps you would like to explain yourself a little better utter tosh and add something useful to the debate then instead of just writing tosh. Please enlighten us all.

Mister


civilisation

22.06.2005 15:32

Errm isn't civilisation always comming to an end soon? Or do you belive we will live forever including yourself? Tosh you are a fool.

ending


tosh = idiot

22.06.2005 15:35

Tosh you must be foolish in the extreem. What else do you think is going to happen? Are you really so very brainwashed?

overlord


Duh what we gonna do then?

22.06.2005 15:39

errrm isn't all the work needed to reduce our reliance on oil only possible as long as we have oil?

Jack


just ask google!

22.06.2005 16:12

Well I just asked Google "global peak oil" and the whole first page was in aggreement with this article. Tell us tosh are they all talking tosh or is it just you?

curious


oil sands

22.06.2005 16:15

Hey tosh don't tell me.... You think the oil sands in Canada will bail us out. No no no they won't, cost is too much to extract from there so impact on global economy will still happen.

canada


hmmm... i see...

22.06.2005 18:49

re:

" Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the most widely-respected
geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. "


there are other greed schemes these powers have up their sleeves


at the moment the evidence is fixed to allow
geo-strategic posturing

this keeps the population controlled
while these elites, with this
doomsday scenario, decide whether to go nuclear now

or have a world war

which would handily cut the 'useless eater'
population down

that term isn't mine - its henry kissingers

it is a disgrace

its an excuse for the next step
in an all encompassing
form of eugenics...

that sadly has been in place for a few years now

via
economic
pharmaceutical
psychological
and the plain old style of
warfare

think...

what are the global impacts of this
'warfare' on the environment

Agent Orange...Depleted uranium
bombs....killing MURDER
privatised patriotism
[mind control]



the results are a scenario where the planet responds by
kicking a weather front or an earthquake about


[how many of you are saying to yourselves; ugh oh : nutter!]

but think about the amount of time
this planet has been evolving, growing

ever changing

do you not think it possible that just because
we think
we are now a 'modernised human race'

that the sun will cease its cycle of heating and cooling
every few hundred thousand years?


its a much much bigger thing than our localised timeframe

and for those that cant reference to that
its a disturbing scenario, its true ...

the weather systems are a little different

maybe not to our liking
[ definatly to the corporate news' liking, though ;) ]

but we live in a continuum

an arena of constant change
which never fixes itself back to a Normal condition

add to the ever-changing arena of climate


the privatisation
of the services that geo-managed the environment to stop
flooding & build protection
and the insurance rip off big business scam

and you have a corporate mandate

a vested interest


in FEAR


just like

the war on terror

nutter choons out for now
byeeee!!!

enjoy the sun














paul c


hang on a mo

22.06.2005 19:33

Okay don't shoot me down for not having any sources to hand but i have (honest) read nuff shit by environmentalists that argues that the idea of Peak Oil is just a myth- one thats perpetuated by the oil industry in order to hike up the price per barrel. I dont know either way but it is worth considering that the biggest threat out there is climate change, which will fuck us before peak oil becomes an issue. I dunno just a thought.

slick rick


yep

22.06.2005 21:58

the climate changes


is it natural or man made?

ie

is 'climate change' really
an elaborate hoax


how many monitors were set up a hundred years ago
to record the global climactic changes these people
[the experts]
are saying prove the earth is doomed?

i bet

not as many as:

the many active monitors
and their outlets

[via a corporate global press conglomerate]

which are spewing the doom scenario

climate change is natural

we are on the cycle of the sun
which....

dictates....
we are getting warmer

[how can anyone change the suns output of energy?]

basically we cannot hope to know because
we haven't had enough
time or data

[unless of course... we secretly have...he hee]


because these cycles take thousands of years


core measurements have been taken in antarctica
taking samples which give a history of
these warming cooling processes

but we have to ask what is
a trustworthy source of information?


the glass is either half empty or half full as far as
climate change and the effects it will have on us

its all a guessing game masked as a scientific
assertion

but what do i know
huh?













paul c


serenity

23.06.2005 09:05

So much confusion in the world. The only place to find the truth and happyness is in you already. Free yourselves then you will be saved.

calm


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