Skip to content or view screen version

Whats the future of Greece?

Russ Abbott | 02.11.2011 16:27

can someone explain whats happening right now in greece?

The eurozone ain't happy, and Poplopdu has sacked the heads of the armed forces, so can anyone suggest whats going on?

Russ Abbott

Comments

Hide the following 5 comments

The future of Greece

02.11.2011 17:17

The current demos will die away

The people will accept the restructuring plan

Wages will be lower

A limited number of people will face real financial hardship

The Greeks will elect another party at the next election who will do all the same things

Zorro


They are fucked

02.11.2011 18:12

Should leave the euro, devalue their currency and sell their assets to pay off the debts

problem solved.

edmund


Greece Must Re-tool the Entire Industrial Revolution.

02.11.2011 19:26

Coal, gas, oil and atomic energy is destroying the planets livability, and therfore the last forty-eight years of ecological green revolution has brought into being the hi and low tech tools to put into place wind, tidal, and solar power that transforms to electricity and is more power than can be used by society. No more blackouts or burn-outs. This non-pollution solution is given freely in natures kinder laws and provides work for all and forever more.
Viva socialist liberation. End pollution wars not endless wars for more pollution. The fact is that the Imperialist Camp is aggressively war making to acquire more fossil fuels and thereby pollute the natural web-of.life, as mother nature, beyond its ability to restore the oxygen that is being burned-out ( already 38% gone), and that proves the present systems are moving the planet towards zero oxygen. That means the air breathing animals and plants would by asphyiated. Dismantle Nato the source of keeping polluted powers in the world in power.

End pollution wars, not endless wars for more and more pollution. Re-store the matriarchy and globally that means electing women equally politically, economically, judicially, and religio wise. Thusly ecologically balancing the specie again which is the material path to the harmony and joy of the man, woman question. Workers of the world, unite!!

Greece needs to take the liberation path and the goal of liberation was set by the anti-fascist fighters of the Second World War at ending aggressive war as any nations foreign policy, and making collective agree and mutual benefit as the path to settling disputes between nations, and that wether Eurozone, independent or globally.

Union Jack


Passing the buck!

02.11.2011 22:52

Greece went into the EU with a serious inbalance of balance of trade. It went in on the back of help from the US and that both scuppered their own economic fortunes but also spread contagion to the rest of the EU.

The Greek banking system isn't as exposed to the rot that is US style globalisation policy because it has traditionally had a more rigid approach to internal and external lending with cogent oversight. This means that its internal institutions have a degree of protection from the more adventurous aspects of Capitalism like trading in debt. If you look at its underlying economic systems you can see that the actual Greek economy shouldn't be presenting the problems it is claimed to be presenting. What is really killing them at the moment is they have no exposure to the current environment, and consequently few allies. The Greek political environment needs to understand that the most developed economies are in the midst of a knife fight trying to pass on the worst of their debt problems...which is becoming progressively more and more contagious itself.

Liquidity was a problem only in the short term after the international markets imploded. But liquidity once it was pumped into the system was quickly sucked up by the inherent debt problems. The fundamental problem here is that after all the bail-outs and rescue packages had been put together, and after all that money had been hosed onto the banks, the debt problem remained. So in order to see tangible results from the bail-outs, the biggest economies now have no choice but to vent the debt onto anybody fool enough to take it. The Greek economy has no carrying capacity to take it so is defaulting out of the EU. Add to that soaring energy prices and high unemployment and you see the problem.

I know this sounds like a daft and bizaare thing to say, but its the traditional health of the Greek economy that is pushing it out of the EU. It has no carrying capacity to take on US and British debt because its economy has been far better managed than those two countries.

The American and British teamsters are behind this.

Basildon Bond.


@ Basildon Bonzo

03.11.2011 08:40

".....the traditional health of the Greek economy that is pushing it out of the EU"


Frankly that's barmy. The Greek economy has never been strong and in retrospect they should never have been allowed to join the Euro. Their government has been guilty of a criminal waste of the massive EU subsidies and grants they have been recipients of and they have pursued a policy of 'buying off' the trade unions with regular pay increases for public sector workers that was simply unsubstantial.

For example an Air Traffic Controller in Greece earns a basic salary of Euro 76,000 while in France it is Euro 46,000 and Euro 51,000 in Germany. A teacher with five years service in Greece and what's called 'merit points' earns Euro 49,500 a UK teacher at the same stage is lucky to see half of that. Train and bus drivers in Greece retire on full indexed linked pensions at 58 years old. All these wages on an economy where the public sector accounts for about 40% of total economic output combined with the average Greek paying less than 23% in tax because of the endemic 'black economy' that sees cash payments for nearly everything to avoid tax.

Greece was accepted into the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union by the European Council on 19 June 2000, based on a number of criteria (inflation rate, budget deficit, public debt, long-term interest rates, exchange rate) using 1999 as the reference year. After an audit commissioned by the incoming New Democracy government in 2004, Eurostat revealed that the statistics for the budget deficit had been under-reported.
Most of the differences in the revised budget deficit numbers were due to a temporary change of accounting practices by the new government, i.e., recording expenses when military material was ordered rather than received. However, it was the retroactive application of ESA95 methodology (applied since 2000) by Eurostat, that finally raised the reference year (1999) budget deficit to 3.38% of GDP, thus exceeding the 3% limit. This led to claims that Greece had not actually met all five accession criteria, and the common perception that Greece entered the Eurozone through "falsified" deficit numbers. In the 2005 OECD report for Greece it was clearly stated that “the impact of new accounting rules on the fiscal figures for the years 1997 to 1999 ranged from 0.7 to 1 percentage point of GDP; this retroactive change of methodology was responsible for the revised deficit exceeding 3% in 1999, the year of Greece's EMU membership qualification”. The above led the Greek minister of finance to clarify that the 1999 budget deficit was below the prescribed 3% limit when calculated with the ESA79 methodology in force at the time of Greece's application, and thus the criteria had been met.
The original accounting practice for military expenses was later restored in line with Eurostat recommendations, theoretically lowering even the ESA95-calculated 1999 Greek budget deficit to below 3% (an official Eurostat calculation is still pending for 1999).
In 2010, the Greek Government estimated its 2009 deficit would be 12.5 per cent of gross domestic product, far above 3.7 per cent predicted in April. It revised its 2008 deficit up to 7.7 per cent from 5 per cent. The European Commission in 2010 said figures from Greece were so unreliable that its budget deficit and public debt might be even higher than the government had claimed in 2009.

A study by forensic accountants has found that data submitted by Greece to Eurostat had a statistical distribution indicative of manipulation. In short they fiddled the books to get in and now they can't afford to stay in !

Economist