Luton is of symbolic importance for the EDL, as it's "where it all began" (to quote their own publicity), as the EDL was formed there in response to protests against the Royal Anglian Regiment's parade by a small number of nutters from the islamic militant group Al-Muhajiroun in March 2009. The EDL are mobilising very energetically for this "anniversary" demo, and are aiming for a huge turn-out. Opposition to the EDL plans has been expressed by Luton community groups, muslim organisations, trade unions, and anti-fascist groups, and there will be counter-mobilizations on the day.

It's fair to say that social tensions in Luton have been increased by the prospect of the EDL incursion; the most bizarre manifestation of this is the alleged "gun attack" on EDL politburo member (and Luton resident) Kevin Carroll on the 27th January. Although facebook and other forums were buzzing that night with reports that Carroll had been shot at in his own home by a muslim, it soon became clear from the police report that Carroll heard something thrown against his window, saw a "black or asian" man holding "something that could have been a shotgun" when he went outside to investigate, and then broke his toe chasing said man down the street! So, the reports of a muslim assassination attempt, which have unsurprisingly inflamed EDL supporters until they're fit to burst, turn out to be not much more than a slightly sinister game of "knock and run". Still, the rumours are out there, and the EDL have raised the temperature before they've even turned up......

The EDL are hoping the demo will unite them after some troubled times. They appear to be losing momentum a little, and there is dissent in the ranks. The recent dropping of charges against the sainted leader "Tommy Robinson" (Steven Laxley-Lennon) has done nothing to dissuade rumours of his police co-operation. The recent discovery that "Tommy's" erstwhile friend and EDL "martyr" Richard Price had a computer filled with child porn hasn't helped EDL morale either (there was a priceless discussion on the EDL forum about the prophet mohammed's alleged paedophilia where one of the main contributors showed the avatar "Support Richard Price" !)

There remains a perpetual tension between the EDL's need to appear anti-racist and inclusive in the public eye, and the fact that their rhetoric, image and BNP links mean they attract those holding opposite opinions. Their desire to remove the nazi-saluters from their ranks is, I feel, mostly genuine; but they are still extremely regressive in their politics, and support for the BNP on their forums is never far under the surface. Recently, a thread (about the recent court case where a gay couple sued a Christian B&B) was deleted from their forums because it contained so much homophobic abuse the moderators realised it was PR suicide. This is not atypical of the sentiments expressed on the EDL forum - any discussion on immigration makes the BNP look fairly moderate, for instance. There is no doubt that the EDL deserve the "far right" tag they dislike so much, and, whatever the politics of individual members (many of whom are certainly not fascists), it's fair to say that, as a social force, the EDL play the role of a street-fascist organisation very well. Their "flash-mobs" illustrate that quite well - recent incursions in Dewsbury and Derby, where the EDL footsoldiers drank beer than marched about chanting "muslim paedos" at non-white bystanders, illustrate that well. It's hard to see how that discourages the likes of Muslims Against Crusades (themselves very unpleasant operators who, in my view, are only bolstered by the EDLs pantomime Islam-bashing).

So, whither Luton? It seems likely that turnout will be high, and that, despite the EDL's statements, there will be disorder, the EDL themselves having fanned the flames of social tension (whilst hypocritically claiming to be peaceful). Anti-fascist groups and locals will protest, but are likely to be outnumbered. We can only hope that the EDL's contradictions and deceits continue to unravel as they continue to plough their unsavoury far-right furrow.