Seven actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and none improved in September 2010, according to the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch.

Deteriorated Situations: * Burundi * Ecuador * Guinea * Kashmir * Mozambique * North Caucasus (non-Chechnya) * Sri Lanka

Download the full report: Crisis Watch 86

Burundi, Month saw escalating violent clashes between security forces and armed groups, as well as kidnappings and fatal attacks on civilians; increasing reports that, in fallout of opposition boycott of June presidential poll, former rebels rearming and recruiting, establishing new movement north of Bujumbura. Attacks included 8 Sept killing of 7 sugar factory workers in Rukoko marshes; discovery 11-12 Sept of 7 mutilated bodies in same area. No group claimed responsibility; authorities deny new rebellion forming, blame “unknown bandits” for incidents. 14 bodies found mid-month in Rusizi river, 4 of which identified as National Liberation Forces (FNL). Political situation remains unsettled despite opposition coalition Democratic Alliance for Change formal recognition of President Nkurunziza 2 Sept. Opposition arrests continue including 27 Sept arrest of Movement for

Ecuador, Disaffected members of police, armed forces 30 Sept staged protest, took control of National Assembly building, airport amid growing resistance to proposed austerity measures which have caused deadlock in Congress. Protesters surrounded hospital where President Correa, attempting to negotiate, forced to seek refuge. Correa rescued by military; 2 dead, dozens injured in standoff; later said revolt amounted to coup attempt. Following 9 Sept FARC attack on Colombian police near Ecuadorian border, countries reactivated COMBIFRON border commission to improve exchange of information between security forces. Following Aug revocation of Ecuador’s arrest warrant for Colombian President Santos, Ecuadorian regional court 3 Sept charged former Colombian army Chief of Staff Montoya with murder, but desisted from demanding international arrest warrant.

Guinea ,Planned 19 Sept second round of presidential election thrown into disarray following slow progress addressing technical problems that marred first round. Charges against election commission (CENI) President Ben Sekou Sylla and director of planning Elhaj Boubacar Diallo 10 Sept raised both legal, political controversies; both sentenced to 12 months in prison. Election campaign in Conakry saw violent clashes 11, 12 Sept between rival supporters of presidential candidates Alpha Conde and Cellou Diallo: 1 killed, dozens injured. Interim govt suspended campaigning, banned demonstrations. Following 13 Sept death in Paris hospital of CENI President Sylla, election commission 15 Sept postponed run-off election citing lack of preparation; interim Guinean President Konate claimed “republic in danger” due to ethnic, political divisions.

Kashmir, Police killed at least 20 protesters as violent anti- India demonstrations continued, including at least 15 on 13 Sept when tens of thousands marched in Srinagar. Violence spread to new areas, with killing of 3 protesters by police in Mendhar in South 15 Sept. Police 12 Sept charged Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, leader of main separatist group All Parties Hurriyat Conference, with treason over allegedly inciting violent protests. All-party delegation visited Kashmir as part of govt peace initiative, met with 3 main separatist leaders 20 Sept. Delhi 25 Sept announced 8-point plan to defuse tensions, including release of students detained for throwing stones, opening of dialogue with Kashmiris. Schools re-opened 27 Sept after 3-month closure. Pakistan condemned crackdown on protesters, 26 Sept asked India to change policy as precondition for any discussion on Kashmir. Security forces killed several militants mid month in Pulwama, Bandipora districts.

Mozambique, Following recent riots in Maputo, the capital, and in other cities in Mozambique that have left at least a dozen dead and more than 400 injured, the government has called off a 30% increase in the price of bread. Police said they had to resort to live ammunition against protesters after running out of rubber bullets. The government has apologised, saying it had never authorised the use of lethal force. Shops and banks were looted, cars stoned and roads barricaded with rocks and burning tyres during three days of alcohol-fuelled rioting that paralysed the capital and shut down the main airport. Nearly 300 demonstrators were arrested, including nine accused of “incitement” for sending out mobile-phone text-messages urging people to join the protests against rising utility, transport and food prices.

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Spike in insurgent violence over month with major attack in North Ossetia, steady clashes in Dagestan, other fatal incidents in Ingushetia, Kabardino-Balkariya. In deadliest terror attack in Russia since March subway bombing in Moscow, at least 17 killed, over 100 injured 9 Sept in suicide bombing at market in North Ossetian capital Vladikavkaz. In Dagestan 4 reported killed, 35 injured 5 Sept in suicide attack on military training camp; bomb found in Irganayskaya hydroelectric station 7 Sept after serious fire; chief of Dagestan police anti-extremism unit killed 12 Sept in capital Makhachkala; 2 killed, 42 injured 25 Sept in suicide bombing during counterterrorism operation in Makhachkala; commander of local anti-extremism unit, 3 other officers killed 28 Sept. Close to 30 militants reported killed during month, mostly in Dagestan, including 29 Sept at least 15 in operations near Makhachkala and Kaspiysk. President Medvedev 11 Sept announced plan to establish local military units composed of ethnic Dagestanis, following Chechen example of fighting insurgency.

Sri Lanka, Parliament 8 Sept approved constitutional amendment removing presidential term limits, abolishing Constitutional Council, and granting president power to directly appoint officials to judiciary, police, electoral bodies; main opposition group UNP boycotted vote, said amendment opens way for “dictatorship” under President Rajapaksa. U.S. 11 Sept registered concern over consolidation of presidential power. Hearings before govt panel investigating civil war continued, including in North, where panel heard from Tamils whose family members serving with Tamil Tigers went missing after surrendering to army May 2009; other witnesses accused army of killing civilians, urged govt to apologise to war victims. UNSG Ban’s panel of experts for Sri Lanka war crimes began work 16 Sept. Ex-army chief Sarath Fonseka sentenced by court martial to 3 years’ jail 17 Sept for corruption; said would fight sentence. IMF 24 Sept agreed to release $213mn loan instalment.

Improved Situations: None

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan (p.5), Algeria (p.12), Armenia/Turkey (p.8), Azerbaijan (p.8), Bahrain (p.11), Bangladesh (p.5), Basque Country (Spain) (p.9), Belarus (p.9), Bolivia (p.9), Bosnia (p.7), Central African Republic (p.2), Chad (p.2), Chechnya (Russia) (p.8), Colombia (p.10), Comoros (p.3), Côte d’Ivoire (p.4), Cyprus (p.9), Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2), Egypt (p.12), Eritrea (p.2), Ethiopia (p.2), Georgia (p.8), Guatemala (p.10), Guinea-Bissau (p.4), Haiti (p.10), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6), Indonesia (p.6), Iran (p.11), Iraq (p.11), Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.10), Kazakhstan (p.5), Kenya (p.3), Kosovo (p.8), Kyrgyzstan (p.5), Lebanon (p.11), Macedonia (p.8), Madagascar (p.3), Mali (p.4), Mauritania (p.12), Mexico (p.10), Moldova (p.9), Myanmar/Burma (p.7), Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) (p.9), Nepal (p.6), Niger (p.4), Nigeria (p.4), Northern Ireland (p.9), North Korea (p.5), Pakistan (p.6), Paraguay (p.10), Philippines (p.7), Rwanda (p.2), Serbia (p.8), Somalia (p.3), Sudan (p.3), Swaziland (p.3), Syria (p.11), Tajikistan (p.5), Thailand (p.7), Timor-Leste (p.7), Turkey (p.9), Uganda (p.3), Ukraine (p.9), Uzbekistan (p.5), Venezuela (p.10), Yemen (p.11), Zimbabwe (p.4)