Burundi: June presidential election marred by violence before and after voting day, at least 5 killed in several grenade attacks and shootings across country. President Nkurunziza (CNDD-FDD) won with 91.6%; polls held despite opposition boycott and Nkurunziza being sole candidate. 77% voter turnout reported, EU observers “regretted” absence of multi-party competition but said people able to “exercise their right to vote”. Opposition dismissed vote as “masquerade”, said turnout closer to 30-40%. Opposition condemned police violence and govt banned demonstrations during UNSG Ban’s 9 June visit. Ban urged all parties to find consensus and participate in polls; AU Commission Chair Ping 25 June “concerned” by tensions, called for dialogue. Opposition 1 June formed new coalition (ADC) and called supporters to boycott polls. Govt expressed fear FNL president Rwasa, missing since 23 June, in Eastern Congo planning return to violence. Rwasa 30 June issued message saying he had fled because of “govt threats”. CNDD-FDD-linked Radio Rema allegedly broadcasted names of opposition members accused of “destabilising country”; local media, human rights groups

Kyrgyzstan: Large scale violence between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in south early month; but despite fears of fresh hostilities, peaceful conduct of 27 June constitutional referendum raised hopes for political stability and reconciliation. Reported fighting 10 June between ethnic groups in Osh turned into widespread armed clashes, spread to Jalal-Abad and other neighbouring areas in following days. Cause of unrest not yet clear. Govt acknowledged lost control of situation, unable to enforce curfew announced 11 June. Reports emerged Kyrgyz security forces did not act to stop attacks, may have participated in violence against ethnic Uzbeks. Both sides reportedly seized large quantities of weapons from warehouses and security personnel. Russia 12 June, CSTO 14 June declined govt requests for military intervention. Relative calm restored 16 June with official estimates of over 200 dead; Acting President Roza Otunbayeva 18 June said actual death toll likely closer to 2,000. UNHCR 17 June estimated 300,000 displaced internally, 100,000- 120,000 ethnic Uzbeks fled to Uzbekistan. Govt 25 June said all but 100 refugees returned voluntarily from Uzbekistan; some international bodies claimed returns forced by Uzbek govt. Govt pressed ahead with 27 June referendum on new constitution amid security concerns, easing voting requirements and lifting state of emergency in south. Preliminary results put turnout at nearly 70% with over 90% of votes cast in favour of new constitution. OSCE, EU, U.S. commended legitimate, peaceful conduct of referendum; called on provisional govt to seize opportunity to advance reconciliation.

Rwanda: Political tensions intensified ahead of Aug presidential elections. Exiled former army chief Lt Gen Kayumba Nyamwasa shot 19 June in Johannesburg; wife accused govt of assassination attempt over Nyamwasa’s recent criticism of President Kagame; govt denied. 4 suspects appeared in Johannesburg court 29 June. Deputy newspaper editor Jean-Leonard Rugambage shot dead 24 June in Kigali; exiled chief editor accused govt, said Rugambage had evidence implicating govt in attack on Nyamwasa. Police 28 June arrested 2 suspects. Opposition presidential candidate Ntanganda (PS Imberakuni) arrested 24 June, charged with “divisionism” and attempted murder of former party member. Other opposition figure Ingabire (FDU Inkingi) barred from running in presidential elections 24 June due to divisionism charges. Police arrested demonstrators protesting as Kagame registered for elections; police said 20-30 arrested, opposition claimed over 100. U.S. attorney Erlinder, arrested and charged with genocide denial late May, freed on bail 17 June. Genocide suspect Octavien Ngenzi arrested 3 June in Mayotte.

Turkey: Deadly PKK attacks escalated after group 3 June announced end to unilateral 14-month ceasefire, citing continued attacks on PKK targets by security forces. Violence peaked 19-21 June as 13 soldiers and at least 17 militants killed in clashes in south-east; 19 June single bloodiest day for army since 2008. Two further clashes 30 June killed 2 soldiers, 3 village guards and 12 PKK militants. Bombings by militants in Istanbul 8, 22 June killed 6, injured 28. PM Erdogan 20 June vowed to annihilate PKK, criticised EU 24 June for “turning a blind eye” to PKK. U.S. Ambassador Jeffrey 21 June pledged active support to defeat organisation. Military 20 June launched land, air offensive against PKK bases in Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq; Iraqi FM Zebari 20 June criticised “unilateral” Turkish action. Trial of 30 PKK supporters began 17 June; group returned from exile Oct 2009 without threat of trial as part of govt reconciliation effort. Police 9 June arrested 17 people suspected of ties to al-Qaeda in simultaneous raids in 4 cities. Debate about Turkey’s foreign policy direction fuelled by Turkey’s strong anti-Israeli rhetoric after Israel’s raid 31 May on Gaza-bound aid ship (see Israel-OPT), and Turkey’s 9 June “no” vote on UNSC resolution mandating new round of sanctions on Iran; U.S. expressed disappointment, Turkey said vote was ethical given ongoing diplomatic efforts to solve nuclear dispute.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Armenia/Turkey, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Comoros, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Ecuador, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guatemala, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Paraguay, Philippines, Serbia, Somalia, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe

Improved Situations: None

July 2010 Outlook

Conflict Risk Alerts: None

Conflict Resolution Opportunity: None

International Crisis Group/CrisisWatch N°83
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