The police have issued a statement in the run-up to the EDL/CU mobilization this Saturday in Nottingham. It is available, along with downloadable presentations, at

 http://www.nottinghamshire.police.uk/newsandevents/news/2009/november/27/edl_assembly_in_nottingham_on_saturday/

A very broad summary might be :

The police accept the EDL/CU line that they are not racist or violent;
The police expect all trouble to come from anti-fascists, who they will deal with "robustly" if needed;
The police are trying to pressurise muslims not to protest.

There's no huge surprise here, although it's interesting to ask what the police's motives are in regard to their position.

I have three possible explanations :

(a) POLICE INTELLIGENCE IS TOO POOR
It is possible that the police really have no evidence to lead them to believe the EDL/CU are racist provocateurs. However, considering that there are well-documented links between the EDL/CU main players and the BNP; that many EDL/CU mobs are linked to football firms with a good track record of aggro (and some EDL/CU top boys have football banning orders!); that previous EDL/CU demos have seen sieg-heiling and racist chanting, and actual harrassment/attacks on asians; and that even a cursory glance at the EDL web forum reveals all manner of racist/violent intent - it seems unlikely!

If they really are that stupid, they're in for a surprise, and Nottingham people will bear the brunt this weekend.


(b) THE POLICE DON'T CARE MUCH ABOUT THE EDL / CU BECAUSWE THEY'RE MORE INTERESTED IN HARRASSING MUSLIMS AND "ANTIS"
It's a fair bet that there will be more cameras and police attention paid to the antifascists on saturday than on the EDL/CU. Of course the police (being violent authoritarians themselves) are, by temperament, more sympathetic to the right than the left and always will be; it follows that they would be more worried about lots of protesting lefties, anarchists and muslims on the streets than violent fascists and football hooligans. Unfortunately, they are going to side with the fascist provokers, rather than the provoked; the fact that they are refusing to ban a racist provocation whilst simultaneously warning those threatened by it not to protest says it all.


(c) THE EDL/CU SUIT THE STATE/POLICE AGENDA
I don't want to stray too far into the realms of conspiracy theory, but I will say this : In the light of the whole atmosphere of "the war on terror" and the way that has shaped the state's attitude to british muslims, does a group that makes muslims feel embattled and increases (white) distrust of muslims not feed that atmosphere? And does that not assist the state's agenda? The EDL/CU certainly have increased tensions in Nottingham already - I hear reports from primary schools in the city that even the young asian kids are very agitated and fearful about the weekend, for instance. Portraying muslim communities as hotbeds of potential terrorist outrages suits the authoritarian state no end, and so we might expect senior elements in the police to view the rise in EDL/CU activity with approval.


So, what do you think? No single theory is likely to show the whole picture, as a complex number of factors will be at work, but I would conclude : The police are showing every sign of failing to restrict the EDL/CU mob from stirring up intimidation and racial tension in our city. They are either stupid and negligent, or they want that. I guess after saturday, we might have more idea of police motives - but the city will probably have suffered in the meantime.