Chad, Sharp upsurge in violence along eastern border with Sudan, while N’Djamena and Khartoum exchanged vehement accusations over attacks. Darfur-based Chadian UFR rebels crossed border 5 May in new offensive against govt and claiming intent to take capital. Followed by govt air strikes, 2 days of fighting in Am-Dam region; N’Djamena reported 225 rebels and 22 soldiers killed, 212 rebels captured. 3 May Doha deal between Sudan-Chad quickly unravelled. N’Djamena accused Khartoum of supporting UFR “mercenaries”, 15 May launched further air strikes on West Darfur rebel bases, claiming several groups destroyed, 100 people captured. Khartoum described Chadian raids as “act of war”, late-month threatened to “crush” further raids.

Guatemala, Political crisis gripped country after President Colom implicated in 10 May murder of prominent lawyer Rodrigo Rosemberg. In posthumously released video, Rosemberg accused Colom, Colom’s wife and close allies of ordering his assassination as well as March killing of his client, for refusing to participate in corruption at state Rural Development Bank. Tens of thousands demonstrated throughout country during month demanding Colom’s resignation; Colom’s supporters staged counter-demonstrations. Colom rejected all accusations, asked FBI, UN to participate in investigation of killings.

Myanmar/Burma, NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi on trial for violating terms of house arrest after American national allegedly swam to her home 4 May; with house arrest due to expire 27 May, critics claimed incident pretext to keep her in jail during 2010 elections. Trail began 18 May behind closed doors at Insein jail, Rangoon. Proceedings drew international condemnation and calls for Suu Kyi’s immediate release, including unusually strong 10 May ASEAN statement, UNSC statement 22 May and from EU ministers 25 May. Govt 20 May allowed diplomats, journalists to attend trial, allowed Suu Kyi to speak to 3 foreign diplomats, but outsiders barred again 21 May.

North Korea, Pyongyang 25 May announced “successful” underground nuclear test, in contravention of UNSC resolution 1718. Prompted strong criticism from South Korea, U.S., Japan, Russia; Beijing 25 May announced “resolutely opposed” to test; emergency UNSC meeting unanimously condemned Washington 26 May called for “strong UNSC resolution with concrete measures to curtail NK’s nuclear and missile activities”. In further development, NK launched short-range coastal defence and air defence missiles 25-29 May. S Korea 26 May upgraded participation in U.S.-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) from observer status to full membership; NK warned step tantamount to declaration of war, declared 27 May no longer bound by 1953 armistice and could not guarantee safety of ships near west sea boundary;

Niger, President Tandja 26 May dissolved parliament, hours after constitutional court rejected as unconstitutional his 8 May call for a referendum on removing presidential 2-term limits – prompted widespread outcry from opposition, civil society leaders and fears of authoritarian drift. Move comes as expiry of Tandja’s 2-term tenure approaches ahead of presidential elections, set mid-month for 28 Nov. Constitution requires formation of parliament within 3 months. Thousands rallied in Niamey 9 May in protest at referendum bid, called by main opposition PNDS; followed quickly by counter-protest by president’s supporters. ECOWAS 18 May threatened sanctions. Tandja and PM Oumarou met with northern Tuareg rebel groups over month, Oumarou agreeing ceasefire with MNJ and FPN 15 May


Nigeria, Govt’s Joint Task Force (JTF) responsible for Niger Delta security launched major ground, air and naval offensive against militants from 15 May, concentrated on western Delta. Hundreds of civilians feared killed and thousands displaced in ongoing violence, as military barred aid groups from Govt’s Joint Task Force (JTF) responsible for Niger Delta security launched major ground, air and naval offensive against militants from 15 May, concentrated on western Delta. Hundreds of civilians feared killed and thousands displaced in ongoing violence, as military barred aid groups from accessing fighting zone. Operation signaled apparent decision by Yar’Adua govt to focus on military approach, as progress on development agenda continues to lag, and prompted concerns over potential to alienate moderates and diminish conflict resolution opportunities. Militant group MEND vowed “all out war”; killed 12 soldiers in ambush and destroyed major Chevron pipeline 25 May, shutting in 100,000 bpd; but observers doubt capacity to launch large-scale response.

Pakistan, Heavy army offensive against Taliban in northwest continued, launched in Apr after peace agreement violated by militants, prompting massive humanitarian crisis with more than 2.4m displaced. Army commenced heavy bombing in Swat districts of Malakand division 8 May; claim some 1,200 militants, 90 soldiers killed since, 4,000-5,000 Taliban estimated remaining in Swat. Army 15 May claimed Buner district, seized by Taliban Apr, now safe and “80%” under govt control; 20 May announced capture of Taliban stronghold Sultanwas. Military 30 May said in control of largest Swat town Mingora; offensive likely to continue into S Waziristan. No independent verification of military’s accounts of operations, outcome available. All political parties except Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami expressed support for offensive at 19 May conference. UNHCR 19 May called for “urgent and massive” international help for displaced. U.S. Sec. Defense Gates 8 May praised Pakistan’s “strong response” to Taliban threat. Several Taliban urban attacks: 10 killed in 11 May Peshawar suicide blast; at least 24 killed, 300 injured in Lahore 27 May .

Somalia, Mogadishu rocked by intense fighting, as alliance of anti-govt Islamist factions led by influential Islamist leader Aweys launched large-scale offensive in and around capital from 7 May, taking control of large parts of city and nearby strategic points Mahadday and Jowhar; mortars fired into presidential palace 23 May. Some 200 civilians killed, hundreds wounded, over 46,000 displaced in heavy shelling into residential areas. Violence coupled with severe drought fuelled fears of greater humanitarian crisis. Followed earlier moves by Aweys to cement Islamist alliance. UNSC 15 May called for investigation into govt allegations Eritrea providing military support to al-Shabaab, denied by Asmara (see Eritrea). UNSC members in 8-day Africa mission met with AU envoys, expressed concern over threat of violence to transitional govt, presence of foreign fighters. Reports of sizable incursions by Ethiopian troops into Hiran region, denied by interior ministry and Addis Ababa. Govt mid-month called on international community to support establishment of anti-piracy coastguard.

Sudan, Increasingly open strains between North-South governing partners, while tensions with N’djamena increased sharply following Chadian incursions in pursuit of rebels on Sudanese soil (see Chad). 150 SPLM and opposition MPs walked out of late-month parliamentary debate on repressive press bill introduced by dominant NCP. President of South Sudan Salva Kiir (SPLM) rejected legitimacy of Apr-May national census. Darfur peace talks between govt, JEM resumed in Doha 7 May after March-Apr hiatus. Planned $3m Darfur peace conference organised by Mo Ibrahim involving 300 civil society representatives cancelled 10 May after delegates denied exit visas by Khartoum. In Darfur, UN USG Holmes during early-month visit reported aid effort holding, but deterioration imminent. Khartoum 8 May said new or renamed aid agencies welcome, existing operations could expand. Insecurity across Darfur continued: govt late-month launched air strikes on N Darfur’s Umm Baru town, following earlier clashes between JEM and SLM-Minni Minawi;

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia/Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Lesotho, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mauritania, Morocco, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Togo, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yem en, Zimbabwe

Conflict Risk Alert for June ~ Somalia

Conflict Resolution Opportunity ~ None

Improved Situations ~ None

Download the full report: CrisisWatch

CrisisWatch N°70, 1 June 2009
 http://tinyurl.com/CrisisWatch