Deteriorated Situations

Central African Republic, Fears for deterioration in security as Dec National Dialogue agreement continued to unravel. Rebel FDPC elements infiltrated Bangui, prompting deployment of French troops in capital from 1 March; rebel MLCJ 3 March announced it had taken up arms; almost 200 FDPC, APRD combatants left Bouar DDR site 2 March. CPJP called for dissolution of Jan 2008 govt, accused govt forces of 20 March attack on troops in north. . . . . .

Guinea-Bissau,  Military chief Tagme na Wai and 5 officers killed in explosion in military HQ 1 March; President Vieira shot dead hours later by soldiers loyal to na Wai. Military announced constitution would be respected and National Assembly head Raimundo Pereira sworn in as interim president 3 March. Bissau reportedly calm. Parties 1 Apr announced elections for 28 June, 60 days beyond deadline prescribed in constitution to provide time for accrual of funds. . . . . .

Kenya, 2 prominent activists documenting police violence, Oscar Kamau King’ara and Paul Oulu, murdered 5 March, sparking protests amid widespread accusations of police responsibility. Followed information-sharing meeting between the 2 men and UN rapporteur Philip Alston ahead of Alston’s 25 Feb report on police violence; 15 activists have since fled or in hiding. U.S. FBI offered to support investigation. Hundreds rallied in Nairobi demanding resignation of police commissioner: 1 killed, 3 police later arrested over death. Events added to mounting tensions in coalition govt over response to Alston report, risk of ICC trials for post-election violence suspects. . . . . .

Madagascar, President Ravalomanana 17 March handed power to military, which installed opposition rival Rajoelina as new president, after dissident troops allied to Rajoelina replaced military head and seized the (unoccupied) presidential palace. Almost daily pro-Ravalomanana protests held in Antananarivo from 23 March, leaving at least 34 wounded. New leader endorsed by Constitutional Court 17 March under pressure from military. . . . . .

North Korea, Rise in tensions after N Korea 12 March announced plan to launch communications satellite between 4-8 Apr; prompted outcry from ROK, Japan, U.S. that Pyongyang preparing to test rocket for long-range ballistic missile. Tokyo vowed to shoot down any missile threat to Japan, while U.S. Sec State Clinton 11 March warned U.S. had “range of options” and threatened to refer to UNSC. 2 other members of 6-Party Talks, China and Russia, showing less public concern, and some analysts stressed wisdom of measured response. . . . . .

Northern Ireland, Return of violence feared as dissident Republicans mounted attacks on security forces. 7 March Real IRA gun attack on Massereene British army barracks County Antrim killed 2 soldiers, injured 4, including 2 civilians. First killing of British army personnel in NI since 1997, roundly condemned by all parties. Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) Officer shot dead 10 March in Continuity IRA gun attack in Craigavon, County Armagh – 1st ever murder of PSNI Officer, 1st police killing since 1998. Attacks came days after PSNI Chief Hugh Orde announced undercover British military intelligence forces being redeployed to NI amid fears of imminent attack, and warning that dissident threat highest since 1998. Thousands protested against killings 11 March in Belfast, Derry, Newry. 11 arrested for attacks, with small-scale violence in Craigavon 14 March during arrests. 17 year old charged 24 March with PSNI Officer murder; another man charged 25 March; 3rd charged with withholding information 26 March. 1 charged 27 March with British soldier murders.

Sierra Leone, Simmering tensions between opposition SLPP and ruling APC members erupted in violence 12 March in southern Gendema during local council by-election in Pujehun district; sparked further clashes in Freetown 13, 14, 16 March; SLPP HQ partly destroyed, at least 17 injured, 3 women reportedly raped. Party radio stations accused of stoking violence closed down. President Koroma 17 March warned of crackdown on those responsible.

Sri Lanka, Heavy govt-LTTE fighting in northeast continued, hundreds killed as LTTE launched counterattacks throughout month. Humanitarian situation remains desperate for some 150,000 civilians still trapped in region. Govt 5 March announced 2 safe routes for civilians; but govt shelling of declared safe zones continued, while LTTE reportedly forcibly recruiting civilians, killing many trying to flee. UN estimates more than 60 civilians killed per day, some 3,500 dead, 8,500 wounded since late-Jan. UNHCHR Navi Pillay 13 March accused both sides of committing war crimes. Govt 17 March rejected EU’s call for immediate ceasefire. Suspected LTTE suicide bombing in Akuressa 10 March killed 14, critically injured govt minister Wijesekara. PM Rajapaksa 9 March appointed ex-LTTE no. 2 “Karuna” as integration minister.

Sudan, Khartoum in response to 4 March decision by ICC pre-trial chamber to issue arrest warrant for President Bashir, for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Darfur (excl. genocide), expelled 13 international aid groups (along with 3 national groups); UN warned of rapid deterioration in conditions and security within Darfur IDP camps. Reports indictment causing tensions at senior level of Bashir’s National Congress Party. Govt moved to rally public support for president, while Bashir undertook defiant visits to Eritrea, Egypt, Qatar late month (none party to ICC). Pro-ICC sentiment brutally repressed:


Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Cameroon, Chad, Chechnya, Colombia, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Somalia, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

Improved Situations: Burundi, Guadeloupe
Hopes for stability in Burundi were raised as the former rebel group FNL began a long-awaited demobilisation process and, after some controversy, President Nkurunziza announced a new electoral commission welcomed by both government and opposition. The situation also improved in Guadeloupe, where a deal between union leaders and the government ended the general strike that saw demonstrations turn violent in February.

CrisisWatch N°68, 1 April 2009 /  http://tinyurl.com/d5jjx9

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