Sri Lanka, Hundreds of civilians killed and more wounded as govt forces made decisive gains in northern Wanni region, capturing last remaining towns under LTTE control. Estimated 250,000 civilians trapped alongside LTTE in shrinking area of Mullaittivu district; situation could worsen further without effective relief operations. UN and ICRC condemned civilian deaths in govt-declared "safe zone"; appealed to LTTE to allow civilians to leave and to govt to permit unimpeded access to those who remain. Indian FM Mukherjee in 27 Jan visit to Colombo requested govt to respect safe areas and grant full access."250,00

Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories,  Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories Following massive damage in Israeli offensive in Gaza, unilateral ceasefires 18 Jan by Israel and Hamas, both claiming victory. Ground incursion commencing 3 Jan reached outlying areas of Gaza City; airstrikes commencing 27 Dec and shelling targeted weapons stores, tunnels for arms smuggling, rocket launching sites, Hamas members, including Interior Minister Siyam killed 15 Jan. Police stations, ministries, hospitals, schools and UNRWA compound also hit. Palestinian rockets from Gaza hit southern Israeli cities including Ashdod, Ashkelon, Sderot, Beersheba. Palestinian sources reported over 1,300 dead including many hundreds of civilians, over 5,000 injured, tens of thousands homeless; 13 Israelis killed including 3 civilians.

Madagascar, up to 100 were killed in 2 days of violent anti-government protests on the streets of Antananarivo that came after weeks of tension between the leader of the opposition and President Ravolamanana. Antananarivo hit by serious unrest after anti-govt rally - called by opposition leader and city mayor Andry Rajoelina - drew some 40,000 to streets in 2 days of violent protests from 26 Jan, after weeks of tension between Rajoelina and president: state media stations, businesses linked to president targeted in widespread looting and arson; up to 100 killed. Rajoelina at 31 Jan rally declared himself in charge of national affairs, denouncing president's "dictatorship" and rejecting dialogue; no reaction from govt 1 Feb. Events escalated following forcible closure of Rajoelina's TV network Viva in Dec. Back on air 27 Jan, Viva reported Rajoelina's plan to form transitional govt with support of armed forces. AU Chair Ping condemned coup attempt, called for dialogue.

Mali, Govt, Tuareg rebel clashes escalated, in serious blow to April ceasefire. 2 killed in 2 Jan ATNMC rebel group grenade attacks on home of prominent MP in Gao. Govt launched series of raids on ATNMC bases around northern town Tinsalak 12-23 Jan, reportedly destroying 4 rebel bases and leaving 31 dead. President Touré and ATMNC traded threats of further attacks; Touré on 20 Jan vowed to use "all means" to secure north. Amid govt crackdown, 3 groups allied to ADC Tuareg rebels agreed to cease hostilities and return to peace process.

The situation improved in Zimbabwe, where after four months of political deadlock that followed a stalled power-sharing agreement, the opposition MDC agreed to form a government of national unity with President Mugabe‚s ZANU-PF. The deal raised hopes that the country might be able to address a disastrous humanitarian situation and undertake pressing social and economic reforms. The situation also improved in Bangladesh, where a newly elected government was sworn in on 6 January, bringing an end to two years of a military-backed caretaker government, although local council elections this month were marred by irregularities and some violence.

For February, CrisisWatch highlights potential for both escalation and resolution of the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and in Sudan. In DRC, a joint operation with Rwanda to root out Rwandan Hutu FDLR rebels brought the promise of new regional cooperation in the east but raised fears of further civilian deaths. Crisis Group also viewed this as an improved situation in January.

Sudan, an imminent decision by the ICC pre-trial chamber on whether to issue an arrest warrant for President Bashir fuels increasing speculation over the response of different political forces, amidst ongoing intensification of violence in Darfur and threats of possible Darfur rebel attacks against cities and oil installations.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Cyprus, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Nicaragua, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Serbia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen

Conflict Risk Alerts
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan

CrisisWatch N°66, 1 February 2009
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5896&l=1

International Crisis Group
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm


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Source for this Message:
International Crisis Group