Bolivia, Violent demonstrations over constitutional referendum intensified, but late month govt-opposition talks present opportunity to ease political crisis. At least 30 killed in Pando department clashes early month; govt deployed troops, 12 Sept imposed martial law in Pando, 16 Sept arrested prefect Leopoldo Fernández. Anti-govt protesters in opposition departments occupied govt buildings, natural gas fields, continued blockade of transport routes throughout month. UNASUR heads of state 15 Sept declared support for President Morales, called for dialogue. OAS-, UN-observed govt-opposition talks from 17 Sept prompted lull in violence; negotiations opened over modifications to new constitution, departmental autonomy, tax revenues. Both sides 29 Sept agreed to postpone further talks until 5 Oct. Morales 11 Sept expelled US ambassador, accused of supporting opposition. Venezuela President Chávez 11 Sept said will intervene if Morales “toppled or killed”.

DR Congo, January peace deal in tatters after further serious clashes between army and General Nkunda’s CNDP rebels in North Kivu following resumption of hostilities on 28 Aug. Fighting spread over month as army struggled to repel CNDP advances from ceasefire positions, with clashes approaching Sake, 25km from Goma, 20-21 Sept. Both sides report heavy casualties, while UN reported 100,000 displaced since late Aug. Reports of FDLR, Mai Mai rebel assaults on CNDP in Masisi, 15 Sept. CNDP cited evidence FDLR fighting alongside army. UN vehicles attacked in 3 Sept protests against MONUC efforts to hold back fighting; demonstrators called for forceful army response to rebels.

Nigeria, violence in Niger Delta surged, after dominant militant group MEND 13 Sept vowed “oil war“ against security forces and oil companies, citing retaliation for increased army attacks. Some 100 thought dead after series of assaults on Shell, Chevron sites in Rivers State from 13 Sept; MEND declared ceasefire 21 Sept, citing appeals from local leaders, but threatened to step up violence if provoked. Army played down MEND operation, 1 Oct claimed 400 militants arrested in Port Harcourt; militant groups said arrests indiscriminate. New ministry for Niger Delta announced early month; Delta leaders applauded but sceptics dismiss govt’s commitment to region’s development. President Yar’Adua returned home 6 Sept after 17-day medical treatment in Saudi Arabia, 8 Sept sacked govt secretary and rumoured rival in further reassertion of executive control after Aug military sackings.

North Caucasus (non-Chechnya) , Situation deteriorating in Ingushetia following August killing of opposition website owner Magomed Yevloyev in police custody: family publicly declared blood vengeance against President Zyazikov and senior police; security services broke up 2 Sept 1,000-strong protest during Yevloyev’s funeral in Nazran. Interior Minister Medov survived suicide bomber attack 30 Sept, 1 bystander killed. Increasingly violent anti-insurgency operations saw 10 security forces, 9 rebels killed – raising concerns of widespread militant backlash.

North Korea, Increasing setbacks to hard-won June agreement on dismantlement: IAEA 24 Sept announced NK had banned inspectors from Yongbyon reprocessing plant, planned to resume reprocessing activities within week. Govt 26 Aug announced would soon consider steps to restore Yongbyon nuclear facilities. Moves may mark attempt by Pyongyang to gain greater bargaining position given continued U.S. inaction on removing NK from state sponsors of terrorism list, but increasingly threaten progress in Six-Party Talks.

Pakistan, Powerful bomb exploded at Islamabad Marriott hotel 20 Sept, killing at least 53, including Czech ambassador and 2 U.S. marines, and injuring hundreds. Attack came hours after President Asif Zardari’s first address to parliament, in which he stressed parliamentary sovereignty through revisions to 17th Amendment and renewed commitment to fighting extremism in tribal belt through 3-pronged strategy: negotiations with militants who renounce violence, economic and political reform, and use of force against those challenging state’s writ. First U.S. cross-border commando raid 3 Sept in North Waziristan killed 15 people, first publicly admitted U.S. ground operation in Pakistan. Drone missile attacks 8 Sept killed further 16 people, leading to sharp rebukes from Pakistan govt. Air incursions and U.S. missile drone attacks continued throughout month.

Philippines, Fighting continued in Mindanao as govt dismantled peace process with MILF rebels. Manila early Sept dissolved peace panel, the mechanism for peace talks, and said would directly engage with local communities instead. MILF rejected mid-month offer of talks by Manila, conditioned on handover of 3 rogue commanders known as Umbra Kato, Bravo and Pangalian. More than 250,000 now displaced in fighting across central Mindanao. Military operations mean Malaysia-led monitors unable to deploy.

Sri Lanka, More than 200,000 displaced in northern Vanni region, as intense battles continued and military won back territory from LTTE. Govt 5 Sept called for withdrawal of all humanitarian agencies from Vanni, raising concern for civilian casualties. UN and other agencies now operating from Vavuniya, 50km south; only ICRC maintained right to operate in Vanni, though WFP 29 Sept said received permission to deliver food. Grenade attack 29 Sept on home of Transparency International country head after report criticising country. Govt ordered census of all Colombo residents arriving from northern districts in past 5 years, effectively targeting Tamils.

Thailand, PM Samak forced out of office 9 Sept by Constitutional Court finding he had violated constitution, which came after weeks of protests by People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) calling for his resignation. Samak had declared state of emergency 2 Sept after pro- and anti-govt forces clashed, killing 1, injuring over 40. Court ruling concerned payments he accepted for hosting TV cookery show while in office. PPP candidate Somchai Wongsawat elected PM 17 Sept; PAD views him as proxy for former PM Thaksin, protests continue. “Peace talks” for south reportedly held 20-21 Sept in Indonesia, with mediation by Indonesian VP Kalla, but Thai govt said not involved and unclear

Yemen, Double car bomb attack on U.S. embassy in Sanaa 17 Sept killed at least 16, including 6 attackers and 1 U.S. citizen. Al-Qaeda-linked Islamic Jihad claimed responsibility, threatened attacks on UK, UAE, Saudi embassies unless imprisoned militants released. Govt reported some 30 suspects arrested. 12 opposition politicians detained after Apr protests released 11 Sept. In north, security reportedly relatively calm but humanitarian situation dire; govt and al-Houthi Shiite rebels traded accusations over ceasefire breaches. Civil society organisations welcomed govt initiative to release detained Houthi loyalists, including journalist Al-Khaiwani.

Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bosnia, Burundi, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte d‚Ivoire, Djibouti/Eritrea, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Rwanda, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Tajikistan, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara

Improved Situations
Zimbabwe, a power-sharing deal was reached between ZANU-PF and the opposition MDC, after 7 weeks of talks. A government of national unity has yet to be formed, however, and the deal leaves difficult questions regarding the distribution of executive power unanswered.

Cyprus, the situation improved when full-fledged reunification talks began between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders.

Conflict Risk Alerts for October
Bolivia

Conflict Resolution Opportunities for October
Bolivia

CrisisWatch N°62, 1 October 2008
 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5701&l=1

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