Run-off: Numbers favour President
brian | 19.06.2008 03:12 | Social Struggles | World
IF George W. Bush could lie 237 times over Iraq in two years, what are the chances he would tell the truth about Zimbabwe even once in seven years?
If the MDC-T leadership could lie about the outcome of the elections on March 29, lies they knew could be easily exposed by collation of figures, to what extent would they go over claims of violence they know cannot be easily verified and which are gobbled in toto by the Western media to deodorise claims of Government repression?
If the MDC-T leadership could lie about the outcome of the elections on March 29, lies they knew could be easily exposed by collation of figures, to what extent would they go over claims of violence they know cannot be easily verified and which are gobbled in toto by the Western media to deodorise claims of Government repression?
Run-off: Numbers favour President
By Caesar Zvayi
IF George W. Bush could lie 237 times over Iraq in two years, what are the chances he would tell the truth about Zimbabwe even once in seven years?
If the MDC-T leadership could lie about the outcome of the elections on March 29, lies they knew could be easily exposed by collation of figures, to what extent would they go over claims of violence they know cannot be easily verified and which are gobbled in toto by the Western media to deodorise claims of Government repression?
Watching and reading copy on CNN, BBC, Sky News and other Western weapons of mass deception, one is left in no doubt that Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC-T are not campaigning to win the run-off, it appears they are busy preparing for the post-election environment by working to discredit the electoral process. This explains their obsession with peddling allegations of violence, extra-judicial killings and Government clampdown on their officials and supporters.
Whenever Tsvangirai is stopped at a roadblock, the incident is not reported for what it is, routine traffic police duties, but is instantly elevated to ‘‘an arrest’’ and ‘‘clampdown’’ on the opposition. Within minutes, news of the ‘‘arrest’’ will be beamed all over CNN, BBC, Sky News and the numerous online sites dedicated to the regime change agenda in Zimbabwe vindicating the view of a well-orchestrated campaign to discredit the electoral process through self-fulfilling prophecies for June 27.
What else explains the tendency by the likes of CNN to instantly beam what comes from the MDC-T moles without verification? If American Uncle Tom, James D. McGee willfully violates the Vienna Conventions governing diplomatic behaviour, conventions that stipulate that an ambassador can not travel a distance of over 40km from his/her station without informing the hosts, and is duly stopped by police for a note verbale from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNN instantly becomes ‘‘ignorant’’ of the Vienna Conventions to claim that diplomats in Zimbabwe are ‘‘restricted from travelling’’ to areas where they will be ‘‘assessing violence.’’
The US State Department cries blue murder calling on the Security Council to discuss Zimbabwe. Ironically, the same State Department and CNN which would have released and reported travel warnings ‘‘advising US citizens against travelling to Zimbabwe for security reasons’’ never explain how western ambassadors do not hesitate to venture to ‘‘the violence-riddled’’ countryside.
If Tendai Biti is hauled in for violating the Electoral Act that stipulates only the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is mandated to announce election results, the arrest is misrepresented as a clampdown on the opposition.
CNN, BBC and other rightwing media conveniently forget that Biti would have breached the law, that he led them on a merry-dance by claiming Tsvangirai had won the presidential election by over 60 percent with MDC-T had winning over 80 percent of the constituencies, a figure he revised to 57 percent a few hours later before settling for 50,3 percent even though the numbers he tried to use to support his claims gave Tsvangirai only 49,09 percent of the vote.
On April 2, Biti released a contradictory statement claiming Tsvangirai had got 1 169 860 votes to President Mugabe’s 1 043 451. These figures, Biti claimed, gave Tsvangirai 50,3 percent yet simple addition, division and multiplication would have shown the likes of CNN that Tsvangirai would have only 49,09 percent, President Mugabe 43,79 percent meaning no candidate had attained the requisite 50 percent and 1 vote required for an outright win.
What is more, as ZEC was to show latter, even these figures were hyped up as official results gave Tsvangirai 1 195 562 votes, representing 47,9 percent of the valid votes, while President Mugabe had 1 079 730 votes, 43,2 percent of the valid votes with rank outsiders Simba Makoni and Langton Towungana on 207 470 votes (8,3 percent) and 14 503 votes (0,6 percent) respectively.
These results dispel the myth that Biti had miscalculated Tsvangirai’s "50,3 percent’’ because he was spot on, on the 43 percent he gave President Mugabe, a figure that — give or take a few votes — tallies with the official results from ZEC.
What this means is that Biti and other MDC-T leaders will stop at nothing to lie as long as they believe the lies abet their cause to fulfill the contractual obligations entered into with the White House and White Hall to deliver Zimbabwe on a platter.
This is the context in which the MDC-T’s claims of violence and intimidation should be received.
The question is who will emerge victorious on June 27?
Everything, even the numbers indicate President Mugabe will prevail and here is why.
An analysis of the House of Assembly and Senate poll results shows that Zanu-PF beat MDC-T in both Houses amassing 45,94 percent of the vote to MDC-T's 43,56 in the Senate; and 45,94 percent to 42,88 in the House of Assembly suffrage.
Zanu-PF won an absolute majority of the vote in five provinces: The three Mashonalands, Midlands and Masvingo; and came first in Matabeleland South with just under 43 percent of the vote, although that lead was not translated into seats. MDC-T, on the other hand, won the absolute majority of the vote in just two provinces: Harare and Manicaland.
No party took an absolute majority of Bulawayo, although MDC-T won all the contested seats.
Though MDC-T came first in Matabeleland North, Zanu-PF led in Matabeleland South.
While MDC-T won 14 of the 26 seats in Masvingo, Zanu-PF led the popular vote in that province since the MDC-T won its seats with minute majorities.
Thus while Zanu-PF lost its majority in the House of Assembly, it tended to win with larger majorities where it was stronger than what MDC-T won with in its strongholds.
An analysis of the presidential election results shows that though President Mugabe trailed Tsvangirai on the popular vote by five percentage points, he won in six out of 10 provinces.
President Mugabe won in Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland South, and Midlands. While Tsvangirai won in Harare, Bulawayo, Manicaland, and Matabeleland North.
Put simply, more people voted for Zanu-PF than MDC-T in the parliamentary elections while more voted for Tsvangirai than President Mugabe in the presidential contest. And since the run-off will be determined by a first-past-the-post system, Zanu-PF’s supremacy in the popular vote makes Tsvangirai the underdog.
Some may say Tsvangirai is the frontrunner by virtue of leading the first round, but then a closer look at that lead and the factors behind it will show March 29 is not replicable.
The sacrilege that saw some MPs garner more votes than the President in some constituencies is simply untenable in the run-off considering what is at stake. Those Zanu-PF reactionaries who nearly sabotaged the revolution through the so-called "bhora musango" for Simba Makoni have since realised the threat Tsvangirai poses to their collective interests.
The bottom line is, Zanu-PF was its own worst enemy in the first round as reports abounded of some party leader who reportedly told their constituents to vote for a Zanu-PF councillor, MP and/or Senator and then Makoni for president.
This explains why Zanu-PF led the MDC-T in the parliamentary elections popular vote while President Mugabe lagged in the presidential contest, vindicating the view that Makoni was sponsored to play spoiler by dividing the Zanu-PF vote to give Tsvangirai an advantage.
The Makoni factor is exposed by looking at voting patterns since 2000 shows that the 1 195 562 who voted for Tsvangirai have been consistent since 2000, but the 1 079 730 who voted for President Mugabe were half a million less than his tallies in previous polls.
l In Election 2000, Zanu-PF had 1 212 302 of the votes (132 572 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 171 051 (91 321 less than March 29).
l In the 2002 presidential poll, President Mugabe had 1 685 212 (605 482 votes more than March 29), while Tsvangirai had 1 258 401 (62 839 more than March 29)
l In the 2005 general election, Zanu-PF had 1 569 867 votes (490 137 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 041 292 (154 270 less than March 29).
What this means is that the numbers Tsvangirai got on March 29 are plus or minus 100 000 the votes he has been getting since Election 2000 while for President Mugabe, the tallies are plus or minus half a million voters.
Adding the ‘‘missing’’ 500 000 to the 1 079 730 votes President Mugabe had on March 29 will translate to 1 579 730 votes to Tsvangirai’s 1 195 562. This would give President Mugabe 56,92 percent of the vote to Tsvangirai’s 43,08. Which is very close to the 57 percent Dr Joseph Kurebwa found in his study ahead of March 29.
This writer also sees President Mugabe prevailing by 57 percent in the run-off.
To put it simply for the likes of the over-excited McGee, Zanu-PF experienced ruinous divisions and apathy on March 29 while MDC voters came out in full force. Apathy for Zanu-PF does not translate to voter sympathy or popularity for Tsvangirai as one letter writer aptly put it in The Herald recently, moreso the vote Simba Makoni got should not be mistaken for an MDC vote as it clearly came from President Mugabe’s ‘‘missing’’ 500 000.
Therefore voting patterns over the past eight years and the numbers on March 29 indicate that President Mugabe will emerge victorious on June 27. This explains why Tsvangirai is busy preparing to trash the results instead of campaigning for office and attacking Zanu-PF adverts instead of advocating policies.
http://www.herald.co.zw/inside.aspx?sectid=383&livedate=6/17/2008%2012:00:00%20AM&cat=13
By Caesar Zvayi
IF George W. Bush could lie 237 times over Iraq in two years, what are the chances he would tell the truth about Zimbabwe even once in seven years?
If the MDC-T leadership could lie about the outcome of the elections on March 29, lies they knew could be easily exposed by collation of figures, to what extent would they go over claims of violence they know cannot be easily verified and which are gobbled in toto by the Western media to deodorise claims of Government repression?
Watching and reading copy on CNN, BBC, Sky News and other Western weapons of mass deception, one is left in no doubt that Morgan Tsvangirai and his MDC-T are not campaigning to win the run-off, it appears they are busy preparing for the post-election environment by working to discredit the electoral process. This explains their obsession with peddling allegations of violence, extra-judicial killings and Government clampdown on their officials and supporters.
Whenever Tsvangirai is stopped at a roadblock, the incident is not reported for what it is, routine traffic police duties, but is instantly elevated to ‘‘an arrest’’ and ‘‘clampdown’’ on the opposition. Within minutes, news of the ‘‘arrest’’ will be beamed all over CNN, BBC, Sky News and the numerous online sites dedicated to the regime change agenda in Zimbabwe vindicating the view of a well-orchestrated campaign to discredit the electoral process through self-fulfilling prophecies for June 27.
What else explains the tendency by the likes of CNN to instantly beam what comes from the MDC-T moles without verification? If American Uncle Tom, James D. McGee willfully violates the Vienna Conventions governing diplomatic behaviour, conventions that stipulate that an ambassador can not travel a distance of over 40km from his/her station without informing the hosts, and is duly stopped by police for a note verbale from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, CNN instantly becomes ‘‘ignorant’’ of the Vienna Conventions to claim that diplomats in Zimbabwe are ‘‘restricted from travelling’’ to areas where they will be ‘‘assessing violence.’’
The US State Department cries blue murder calling on the Security Council to discuss Zimbabwe. Ironically, the same State Department and CNN which would have released and reported travel warnings ‘‘advising US citizens against travelling to Zimbabwe for security reasons’’ never explain how western ambassadors do not hesitate to venture to ‘‘the violence-riddled’’ countryside.
If Tendai Biti is hauled in for violating the Electoral Act that stipulates only the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is mandated to announce election results, the arrest is misrepresented as a clampdown on the opposition.
CNN, BBC and other rightwing media conveniently forget that Biti would have breached the law, that he led them on a merry-dance by claiming Tsvangirai had won the presidential election by over 60 percent with MDC-T had winning over 80 percent of the constituencies, a figure he revised to 57 percent a few hours later before settling for 50,3 percent even though the numbers he tried to use to support his claims gave Tsvangirai only 49,09 percent of the vote.
On April 2, Biti released a contradictory statement claiming Tsvangirai had got 1 169 860 votes to President Mugabe’s 1 043 451. These figures, Biti claimed, gave Tsvangirai 50,3 percent yet simple addition, division and multiplication would have shown the likes of CNN that Tsvangirai would have only 49,09 percent, President Mugabe 43,79 percent meaning no candidate had attained the requisite 50 percent and 1 vote required for an outright win.
What is more, as ZEC was to show latter, even these figures were hyped up as official results gave Tsvangirai 1 195 562 votes, representing 47,9 percent of the valid votes, while President Mugabe had 1 079 730 votes, 43,2 percent of the valid votes with rank outsiders Simba Makoni and Langton Towungana on 207 470 votes (8,3 percent) and 14 503 votes (0,6 percent) respectively.
These results dispel the myth that Biti had miscalculated Tsvangirai’s "50,3 percent’’ because he was spot on, on the 43 percent he gave President Mugabe, a figure that — give or take a few votes — tallies with the official results from ZEC.
What this means is that Biti and other MDC-T leaders will stop at nothing to lie as long as they believe the lies abet their cause to fulfill the contractual obligations entered into with the White House and White Hall to deliver Zimbabwe on a platter.
This is the context in which the MDC-T’s claims of violence and intimidation should be received.
The question is who will emerge victorious on June 27?
Everything, even the numbers indicate President Mugabe will prevail and here is why.
An analysis of the House of Assembly and Senate poll results shows that Zanu-PF beat MDC-T in both Houses amassing 45,94 percent of the vote to MDC-T's 43,56 in the Senate; and 45,94 percent to 42,88 in the House of Assembly suffrage.
Zanu-PF won an absolute majority of the vote in five provinces: The three Mashonalands, Midlands and Masvingo; and came first in Matabeleland South with just under 43 percent of the vote, although that lead was not translated into seats. MDC-T, on the other hand, won the absolute majority of the vote in just two provinces: Harare and Manicaland.
No party took an absolute majority of Bulawayo, although MDC-T won all the contested seats.
Though MDC-T came first in Matabeleland North, Zanu-PF led in Matabeleland South.
While MDC-T won 14 of the 26 seats in Masvingo, Zanu-PF led the popular vote in that province since the MDC-T won its seats with minute majorities.
Thus while Zanu-PF lost its majority in the House of Assembly, it tended to win with larger majorities where it was stronger than what MDC-T won with in its strongholds.
An analysis of the presidential election results shows that though President Mugabe trailed Tsvangirai on the popular vote by five percentage points, he won in six out of 10 provinces.
President Mugabe won in Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland South, and Midlands. While Tsvangirai won in Harare, Bulawayo, Manicaland, and Matabeleland North.
Put simply, more people voted for Zanu-PF than MDC-T in the parliamentary elections while more voted for Tsvangirai than President Mugabe in the presidential contest. And since the run-off will be determined by a first-past-the-post system, Zanu-PF’s supremacy in the popular vote makes Tsvangirai the underdog.
Some may say Tsvangirai is the frontrunner by virtue of leading the first round, but then a closer look at that lead and the factors behind it will show March 29 is not replicable.
The sacrilege that saw some MPs garner more votes than the President in some constituencies is simply untenable in the run-off considering what is at stake. Those Zanu-PF reactionaries who nearly sabotaged the revolution through the so-called "bhora musango" for Simba Makoni have since realised the threat Tsvangirai poses to their collective interests.
The bottom line is, Zanu-PF was its own worst enemy in the first round as reports abounded of some party leader who reportedly told their constituents to vote for a Zanu-PF councillor, MP and/or Senator and then Makoni for president.
This explains why Zanu-PF led the MDC-T in the parliamentary elections popular vote while President Mugabe lagged in the presidential contest, vindicating the view that Makoni was sponsored to play spoiler by dividing the Zanu-PF vote to give Tsvangirai an advantage.
The Makoni factor is exposed by looking at voting patterns since 2000 shows that the 1 195 562 who voted for Tsvangirai have been consistent since 2000, but the 1 079 730 who voted for President Mugabe were half a million less than his tallies in previous polls.
l In Election 2000, Zanu-PF had 1 212 302 of the votes (132 572 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 171 051 (91 321 less than March 29).
l In the 2002 presidential poll, President Mugabe had 1 685 212 (605 482 votes more than March 29), while Tsvangirai had 1 258 401 (62 839 more than March 29)
l In the 2005 general election, Zanu-PF had 1 569 867 votes (490 137 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 041 292 (154 270 less than March 29).
What this means is that the numbers Tsvangirai got on March 29 are plus or minus 100 000 the votes he has been getting since Election 2000 while for President Mugabe, the tallies are plus or minus half a million voters.
Adding the ‘‘missing’’ 500 000 to the 1 079 730 votes President Mugabe had on March 29 will translate to 1 579 730 votes to Tsvangirai’s 1 195 562. This would give President Mugabe 56,92 percent of the vote to Tsvangirai’s 43,08. Which is very close to the 57 percent Dr Joseph Kurebwa found in his study ahead of March 29.
This writer also sees President Mugabe prevailing by 57 percent in the run-off.
To put it simply for the likes of the over-excited McGee, Zanu-PF experienced ruinous divisions and apathy on March 29 while MDC voters came out in full force. Apathy for Zanu-PF does not translate to voter sympathy or popularity for Tsvangirai as one letter writer aptly put it in The Herald recently, moreso the vote Simba Makoni got should not be mistaken for an MDC vote as it clearly came from President Mugabe’s ‘‘missing’’ 500 000.
Therefore voting patterns over the past eight years and the numbers on March 29 indicate that President Mugabe will emerge victorious on June 27. This explains why Tsvangirai is busy preparing to trash the results instead of campaigning for office and attacking Zanu-PF adverts instead of advocating policies.
http://www.herald.co.zw/inside.aspx?sectid=383&livedate=6/17/2008%2012:00:00%20AM&cat=13
brian