Zimbabwe: the march 29 elections analysed by Caesar Zvayi
brian | 18.06.2008 02:29 | Social Struggles | World
The question is who will emerge victorious on June 27?
Everything, even the numbers indicate President Mugabe will prevail and here is why.
An analysis of the House of Assembly and Senate poll results shows that Zanu-PF beat MDC-T in both Houses amassing 45,94 percent of the vote to MDC-T's 43,56 in the Senate; and 45,94 percent to 42,88 in the House of Assembly suffrage.
Zanu-PF won an absolute majority of the vote in five provinces: The three Mashonalands, Midlands and Masvingo; and came first in Matabeleland South with just under 43 percent of the vote, although that lead was not translated into seats. MDC-T, on the other hand, won the absolute majority of the vote in just two provinces: Harare and Manicaland.
No party took an absolute majority of Bulawayo, although MDC-T won all the contested seats.
Though MDC-T came first in Matabeleland North, Zanu-PF led in Matabeleland South.
While MDC-T won 14 of the 26 seats in Masvingo, Zanu-PF led the popular vote in that province since the MDC-T won its seats with minute majorities.
Thus while Zanu-PF lost its majority in the House of Assembly, it tended to win with larger majorities where it was stronger than what MDC-T won with in its strongholds.
An analysis of the presidential election results shows that though President Mugabe trailed Tsvangirai on the popular vote by five percentage points, he won in six out of 10 provinces.
President Mugabe won in Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland South, and Midlands. While Tsvangirai won in Harare, Bulawayo, Manicaland, and Matabeleland North.
Put simply, more people voted for Zanu-PF than MDC-T in the parliamentary elections while more voted for Tsvangirai than President Mugabe in the presidential contest. And since the run-off will be determined by a first-past-the-post system, Zanu-PF's supremacy in the popular vote makes Tsvangirai the underdog.
Some may say Tsvangirai is the frontrunner by virtue of leading the first round, but then a closer look at that lead and the factors behind it will show March 29 is not replicable.
The sacrilege that saw some MPs garner more votes than the President in some constituencies is simply untenable in the run-off considering what is at stake. Those Zanu-PF reactionaries who nearly sabotaged the revolution through the so-called "bhora musango" for Simba Makoni have since realised the threat Tsvangirai poses to their collective interests.
The bottom line is, Zanu-PF was its own worst enemy in the first round as reports abounded of some party leader who reportedly told their constituents to vote for a Zanu-PF councillor, MP and/or Senator and then Makoni for president.
This explains why Zanu-PF led the MDC-T in the parliamentary elections popular vote while President Mugabe lagged in the presidential contest, vindicating the view that Makoni was sponsored to play spoiler by dividing the Zanu-PF vote to give Tsvangirai an advantage.
The Makoni factor is exposed by looking at voting patterns since 2000 shows that the 1 195 562 who voted for Tsvangirai have been consistent since 2000, but the 1 079 730 who voted for President Mugabe were half a million less than his tallies in previous polls.
l In Election 2000, Zanu-PF had 1 212 302 of the votes (132 572 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 171 051 (91 321 less than March 29).
l In the 2002 presidential poll, President Mugabe had 1 685 212 (605 482 votes more than March 29), while Tsvangirai had 1 258 401 (62 839 more than March 29)
l In the 2005 general election, Zanu-PF had 1 569 867 votes (490 137 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 041 292 (154 270 less than March 29).
What this means is that the numbers Tsvangirai got on March 29 are plus or minus 100 000 the votes he has been getting since Election 2000 while for President Mugabe, the tallies are plus or minus half a million voters.
Adding the ``missing'' 500 000 to the 1 079 730 votes President Mugabe had on March 29 will translate to 1 579 730 votes to Tsvangirai's 1 195 562. This would give President Mugabe 56,92 percent of the vote to Tsvangirai's 43,08. Which is very close to the 57 percent Dr Joseph Kurebwa found in his study ahead of March 29.
This writer also sees President Mugabe prevailing by 57 percent in the run-off.
To put it simply for the likes of the over-excited McGee, Zanu-PF experienced ruinous divisions and apathy on March 29 while MDC voters came out in full force. Apathy for Zanu-PF does not translate to voter sympathy or popularity for Tsvangirai as one letter writer aptly put it in The Herald recently, moreso the vote Simba Makoni got should not be mistaken for an MDC vote as it clearly came from President Mugabe's ``missing'' 500 000.
http://www.herald.co.zw/inside.aspx?sectid=383&cat=13
Everything, even the numbers indicate President Mugabe will prevail and here is why.
An analysis of the House of Assembly and Senate poll results shows that Zanu-PF beat MDC-T in both Houses amassing 45,94 percent of the vote to MDC-T's 43,56 in the Senate; and 45,94 percent to 42,88 in the House of Assembly suffrage.
Zanu-PF won an absolute majority of the vote in five provinces: The three Mashonalands, Midlands and Masvingo; and came first in Matabeleland South with just under 43 percent of the vote, although that lead was not translated into seats. MDC-T, on the other hand, won the absolute majority of the vote in just two provinces: Harare and Manicaland.
No party took an absolute majority of Bulawayo, although MDC-T won all the contested seats.
Though MDC-T came first in Matabeleland North, Zanu-PF led in Matabeleland South.
While MDC-T won 14 of the 26 seats in Masvingo, Zanu-PF led the popular vote in that province since the MDC-T won its seats with minute majorities.
Thus while Zanu-PF lost its majority in the House of Assembly, it tended to win with larger majorities where it was stronger than what MDC-T won with in its strongholds.
An analysis of the presidential election results shows that though President Mugabe trailed Tsvangirai on the popular vote by five percentage points, he won in six out of 10 provinces.
President Mugabe won in Mashonaland Central, Mashonaland East, Mashonaland West, Masvingo, Matabeleland South, and Midlands. While Tsvangirai won in Harare, Bulawayo, Manicaland, and Matabeleland North.
Put simply, more people voted for Zanu-PF than MDC-T in the parliamentary elections while more voted for Tsvangirai than President Mugabe in the presidential contest. And since the run-off will be determined by a first-past-the-post system, Zanu-PF's supremacy in the popular vote makes Tsvangirai the underdog.
Some may say Tsvangirai is the frontrunner by virtue of leading the first round, but then a closer look at that lead and the factors behind it will show March 29 is not replicable.
The sacrilege that saw some MPs garner more votes than the President in some constituencies is simply untenable in the run-off considering what is at stake. Those Zanu-PF reactionaries who nearly sabotaged the revolution through the so-called "bhora musango" for Simba Makoni have since realised the threat Tsvangirai poses to their collective interests.
The bottom line is, Zanu-PF was its own worst enemy in the first round as reports abounded of some party leader who reportedly told their constituents to vote for a Zanu-PF councillor, MP and/or Senator and then Makoni for president.
This explains why Zanu-PF led the MDC-T in the parliamentary elections popular vote while President Mugabe lagged in the presidential contest, vindicating the view that Makoni was sponsored to play spoiler by dividing the Zanu-PF vote to give Tsvangirai an advantage.
The Makoni factor is exposed by looking at voting patterns since 2000 shows that the 1 195 562 who voted for Tsvangirai have been consistent since 2000, but the 1 079 730 who voted for President Mugabe were half a million less than his tallies in previous polls.
l In Election 2000, Zanu-PF had 1 212 302 of the votes (132 572 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 171 051 (91 321 less than March 29).
l In the 2002 presidential poll, President Mugabe had 1 685 212 (605 482 votes more than March 29), while Tsvangirai had 1 258 401 (62 839 more than March 29)
l In the 2005 general election, Zanu-PF had 1 569 867 votes (490 137 votes more than March 29) while the MDC had 1 041 292 (154 270 less than March 29).
What this means is that the numbers Tsvangirai got on March 29 are plus or minus 100 000 the votes he has been getting since Election 2000 while for President Mugabe, the tallies are plus or minus half a million voters.
Adding the ``missing'' 500 000 to the 1 079 730 votes President Mugabe had on March 29 will translate to 1 579 730 votes to Tsvangirai's 1 195 562. This would give President Mugabe 56,92 percent of the vote to Tsvangirai's 43,08. Which is very close to the 57 percent Dr Joseph Kurebwa found in his study ahead of March 29.
This writer also sees President Mugabe prevailing by 57 percent in the run-off.
To put it simply for the likes of the over-excited McGee, Zanu-PF experienced ruinous divisions and apathy on March 29 while MDC voters came out in full force. Apathy for Zanu-PF does not translate to voter sympathy or popularity for Tsvangirai as one letter writer aptly put it in The Herald recently, moreso the vote Simba Makoni got should not be mistaken for an MDC vote as it clearly came from President Mugabe's ``missing'' 500 000.
http://www.herald.co.zw/inside.aspx?sectid=383&cat=13
brian