Why I Fear the BNP
By Jennette Arnold

Like a dangerous dog, the threat from the British National Party in the London Assembly elections has been allowed to lie. But the realisation that they need just 5% of the capital's vote to win seats in May is now slowly dawning. The shock that this awakening has taken so long alarmed me almost as much as the threat itself.

The facts are stark. For one seat on the assembly, the BNP need just 5% of the vote. For two seats they need 8% and for three seats 11%. For anyone doubting how achievable these targets are, at the last GLA elections in 2004 they got 4.8% - just 5,000 votes away from credibility and a stepping stone to further power.

Though the BNP is currently wracked by internal wrangling and financial turmoil, any success in London would galvanise its supporters, give the party UK-wide credence as an electable force and set in motion worrying momentum heading into next year's European elections. Or, as they put it: "If we are successful it will send shockwaves through the media and the establishment and will really propel the BNP into the political premier league."

As someone who adores multi-cultural, multi-coloured and multi-racial London, it's a terrifying thought.

The BNP terrify me not because they are a racist, thuggish bunch who thrive on hate and fear - though of course they are - but because they represent the polar opposite of my political beliefs. For me, politics is about the power of collective action, in all its forms, as the driver for achieving change. This was my philosophy as a member of the church, then a nursing trade union official and finally as a Labour politician. I have always believed in the power of the collective will of the majority to improve lives and communities. In contrast, the BNP are a fascist minority who manipulate grievances to divide the communities they infect. It is their pernicious scape-goating, based on racism but thriving on fear of 'the other', that I so despise.

There is a danger - and I have seen it here at City Hall - that progressive-minded people will shrug their shoulders. The pervasive attitude that says: "It won't happen here. The BNP blights Oldham and Burnley but not our great multi-cultural capital. We're above all that."

But the far right's recent successes should serve as a wake-up call. In Barking and Dagenham two years ago they won 11 out of 35 council seats with 8,000 votes (remember they only need 5,000 more across the whole of London for an assembly seat). They have polled 10% in wards in Havering, Sutton, Croydon, Lewisham, Hillingdon and Enfield - all areas where UKIP have previously done well.

Why do I talk about UKIP? In 2004, when the BNP were in touching distance of an assembly seat, the GLA and European elections were held on the same day. UKIP punched above their weight by exploiting the shared date and won two seats. Excellent work by the anti-fascist group Searchlight and the Joseph Rowntree Trust has found that, with UKIP (now called One London) all but finished as an electoral force and with no European elections this year, as many as 20% of their supporters could switch to the BNP. This would give the racist party 6.5% even before their growth in the capital since 2004 is taken into account. More than enough to get them elected.

It is far from a forgone conclusion, though. The BNP are the most despised political party in Britain and London's diverse population means that 35% of voters should automatically oppose them. The problem comes with the word "automatically".

It is not enough to be automatically or naturally opposed to the hideous ideology of the far-right. What matters is getting out and voting. And, because of the electoral system, it is not enough to say it won't happen in, say, Hackney or Hampstead. It is the party's share of the vote across the whole of London that counts. So the more votes that are cast the higher the bar will be that the BNP have to reach.

An increased turnout is the only way to stop the BNP gaining a foothold in London. If 45% of Londoners turn out to vote, the BNP would need 120,000 votes for one seat and almost 200,000 for two. In 2004 they got 90,000 votes.

One upshot of the high profile fight for the mayoralty is that the increased media attention should encourage people to get out and vote. Let's hope so. With the nation's eyes on the capital, the British far right have their best chance in recent years of gaining respectability and - as the BNP see it - a springboard to further political power. But if London's mainstream majority are alive to the threat and get out to vote, the capital and the country will have a lot to be thankful for.