USAF to use Nazi technology to turn coal into jet fuel
Chris | 03.02.2008 21:01 | Analysis | Climate Chaos | Ecology | Sheffield
The US Air Force has announced plans for a massive $4 billion coal to jet fuel plant -- like the switch from food crop to fuel crops this is another confirmation that peak oil is here.
businessweek.com are reporting that:
"Air Force officials have laid out an ambitious plan to develop a privately financed coal-to-diesel plant at Malmstrom air base within the next four years at a cost of $1 billion to $4 billion."
"The plant, which would be among the first of its kind in the nation, would use a technology perfected in Nazi Germany to turn coal into synthetic fuels, including jet fuel for use by the Air Force."
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8UH07P00.htm
The process in question is one that Germany resorted to when it was unable to access enough oil during WWII -- the Fischer-Tropsch process: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process
Of course there are two big problems with this, one being that it's going to ensure that after all the easy to access oil and gas have been burnt that huge quantities of coal will also be burnt and of course the carbon won't be captured, from the same article:
"By 2016, the Air Force wants to use a synthetic jet fuel blend for up to 50 percent of the fuel used by its domestic fleet. That would require roughly 400 million gallons of coal-based fuel annually."
"Chuck Magraw with the Natural Resources Defense Council said capturing the carbon dioxide from that much fuel production could prove impossible."
""I don't think it's achievable," he said."
In addition peak coal isn't that far away, as David Strahan reported in the New Scientist:
"UK and Germany have cut their reserves by more than 90 per cent and Poland by 50 per cent. Declared global reserves of high-quality “hard coal” have fallen by 25 per cent since 1990, from almost 640 billion tonnes to less than 480 billion – again more than could be accounted for by consumption."
"At the same time, however, many countries including China and Vietnam have left their official reserves suspiciously unchanged for decades even though they have mined billions of tonnes of coal over that period."
"Taken together, dramatic falls in some countries’ reserves coupled with the stubborn refusal of others to revise their figures down in the face of massive production suggest that figures for global coal reserves figures are not to be relied on. Is it possible that the sturdy pit prop of unlimited coal is actually a flimsy stick?"
"That is certainly the conclusion of Energy Watch, a group of scientists led by the German renewable energy consultancy Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST). In a report published in 2007, the group argues that official coal reserves are likely to be biased on the high side. “As scientists we were surprised to find that so-called proven reserves were anything but proven,” says lead author Werner Zittel. “It is a clear sign that something is seriously wrong.”"
"Since it is widely accepted that major new discoveries of coal are unlikely, Energy Watch forecast that global coal output will peak as early as 2025 and then fall into terminal decline."
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=116
Of course this has dire climate change consequences, see for example Pushker A Kharecha and James E Hansen's "Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO2 and climate" paper:
"The amounts of fossil fuel ‘proven’ and potential reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless
of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these
reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine
environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a
large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy
choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the
Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that
it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that
emissions from coal and unconventional fossil fuels are constrained. Coal-fired power plants
without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also
important to ‘stretch’ conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus
averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while
clean technologies are being developed for the era ‘beyond fossil fuels’. We argue that a rising
price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into
usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling."
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/notyet/submitted_Kharecha_Hansen.pdf
"Air Force officials have laid out an ambitious plan to develop a privately financed coal-to-diesel plant at Malmstrom air base within the next four years at a cost of $1 billion to $4 billion."
"The plant, which would be among the first of its kind in the nation, would use a technology perfected in Nazi Germany to turn coal into synthetic fuels, including jet fuel for use by the Air Force."
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8UH07P00.htm The process in question is one that Germany resorted to when it was unable to access enough oil during WWII -- the Fischer-Tropsch process:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process Of course there are two big problems with this, one being that it's going to ensure that after all the easy to access oil and gas have been burnt that huge quantities of coal will also be burnt and of course the carbon won't be captured, from the same article:
"By 2016, the Air Force wants to use a synthetic jet fuel blend for up to 50 percent of the fuel used by its domestic fleet. That would require roughly 400 million gallons of coal-based fuel annually."
"Chuck Magraw with the Natural Resources Defense Council said capturing the carbon dioxide from that much fuel production could prove impossible."
""I don't think it's achievable," he said."
In addition peak coal isn't that far away, as David Strahan reported in the New Scientist:
"UK and Germany have cut their reserves by more than 90 per cent and Poland by 50 per cent. Declared global reserves of high-quality “hard coal” have fallen by 25 per cent since 1990, from almost 640 billion tonnes to less than 480 billion – again more than could be accounted for by consumption."
"At the same time, however, many countries including China and Vietnam have left their official reserves suspiciously unchanged for decades even though they have mined billions of tonnes of coal over that period."
"Taken together, dramatic falls in some countries’ reserves coupled with the stubborn refusal of others to revise their figures down in the face of massive production suggest that figures for global coal reserves figures are not to be relied on. Is it possible that the sturdy pit prop of unlimited coal is actually a flimsy stick?"
"That is certainly the conclusion of Energy Watch, a group of scientists led by the German renewable energy consultancy Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST). In a report published in 2007, the group argues that official coal reserves are likely to be biased on the high side. “As scientists we were surprised to find that so-called proven reserves were anything but proven,” says lead author Werner Zittel. “It is a clear sign that something is seriously wrong.”"
"Since it is widely accepted that major new discoveries of coal are unlikely, Energy Watch forecast that global coal output will peak as early as 2025 and then fall into terminal decline."
http://www.davidstrahan.com/blog/?p=116 Of course this has dire climate change consequences, see for example Pushker A Kharecha and James E Hansen's "Implications of “peak oil” for atmospheric CO2 and climate" paper:
"The amounts of fossil fuel ‘proven’ and potential reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless
of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these
reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine
environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a
large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy
choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the
Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that
it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that
emissions from coal and unconventional fossil fuels are constrained. Coal-fired power plants
without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also
important to ‘stretch’ conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus
averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while
clean technologies are being developed for the era ‘beyond fossil fuels’. We argue that a rising
price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into
usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling."
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/notyet/submitted_Kharecha_Hansen.pdf
Chris
Comments
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Gas-to-liquid fuel used in Airbus flight
03.02.2008 22:13
"Airbus tested gas-to-liquid fuels Friday on a superjumbo A380 in the first flight of a commercial aircraft using the potential alternative to regular jet fuel."
"Airbus conducted the trial flight with Rolls-Royce Group PLC, whose Trent 900 engines power the double-decker A380 used for the trip, the Toulouse, France-based manufacturer said at a briefing in Filton, England. Royal Dutch Shell PLC., Europe's largest oil company, provided fuel for the flight, which didn't carry passengers."
"GTL plants use natural gas, rather than crude oil, to make fuel that contains virtually no sulfur, including a mixture that can be used in cars. Airbus predicts that about 25 percent of fuel used in aviation will come from alternative sources by 2025."
...
"Virgin Atlantic Airways Ltd., the British carrier controlled by billionaire Richard Branson, will conduct a biofuel test later this month with a Boeing 747. The plane will fly from London to Amsterdam, Netherlands, without passengers in a joint project with Chicago-based Boeing and engine maker General Electric. Co."
Shell who provided the fuel for this, are the first big oil compant to admit that peak oil and gas are going to start hitting hard soon:
"an email sent by Jeroen van der Veer, the CEO of Shell, to all Shell employees, and explicitly meant for wider distribution... is a clear acknowledgement of the reality of peak oil, climate change and of the need for comprehensive policy changes"
The email includes:
"Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil *and* gas will no longer keep up with demand"
Chris
Hot gas equals syngas, not sin gas
04.02.2008 02:50
The power plants you mention are awful - and Chirs is right to point out the global implications of that, but he would be wrong to condemn gasification as a concept. That is like saying all electricity is bad because George Bush electrocutes children. A proper control of gasification in everyday fires could save hundreds of millions of lives each year and cut back on global warming.
A proper harnessing of gasification using old technology could roll back the demand for power plants. Blame the business, not the science.
Danny
Homepage:
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2007/11/386135.html
world oil reserves
04.02.2008 07:59
Overall oil reserve figures based on found and exploitable wells were published in an open public way up until 1993 however then the US government stopped the US returns when the new Gulf and Texas fields were shown to have had about 50 times more oil than first thought. Since then it is generaly accepted that the great Louisiana field discovered in 1996 probably has the equivilent of what is in Lybia.
The World Oil Forum has pushed the US government for years to relase the real figures but the major oil companies now get around this by declaring fields to be "theoretical and non proven" so they are not included in true reserves.
Prof Robert Engler made a number of calculations based on exploration - sucess ratios and an assumption of oil demand doubling by 2012 and calculated that current reserves both declared and undeclared equate to nearly 300 years worth however the crucial thing is that for the final 140 years almost 100% of the world's oil will come from either Saudi Arabia or North America. In 2005 Exxon CEO Lee Raymond was said to have called these figures, "about right".
None of this takes into account non found fields, the Artic region for example probably has more oil under it than the entire current fields already found but the challenges of getting it are formidible.
oil info
oil info
Oil Disinfomation
04.02.2008 08:14
So that is why there is so much money going into coal to liquid production, food crop to fuel production and so forth... pull the other one...
The US peaked in the 1970's, Canada has a lot of oil sands but the ecological consequences of these being used are dire.
Recent analysis of Saudi reserves:
Chris
Confused
04.02.2008 08:42
The links you provided just prove the point I was making, was that really your intention ?
Saudi production is running at about 60% of available total production based on current open wells, as the Oil Barrel notes they are able to activate another 385 wells with no more than 90 days notice which would increase capacity by another 40% (approx). In addition work on finding new wells has been slowed by SaudiAramco to hide their true reserves hence the work done by the contributor to the Oil Barrel to illustrate this.
Also remember that Saudi wells are more or less easy to spot because of the surface geology, US, Russian, Ukranian and undersea wells are much more difficult to see. The US Texan fields for example (the money behind Bush's campaign) are to all purposes invisible without ground exploration. Exxon has spent 30 years there and has drilled nothing beyond test rigs, in other words, they drill, find the field mark it and cap it.
The Norwegans are doing the same in the North Sea, slowing the release of their exploration data to hide the size of the fields they have found. The Danes have always refused to state their field size in the Orgen Straight and have stated they will not pump until 2020 at the earliest.
I do agree with you that tar fields in Canada are an environmental nightmare waiting to happen but happen it will. The Canadian government cannot believe its luck and the infrastructure is already in place - look at Google Earth to see what I mean.
oil info
What !
04.02.2008 08:51
Utterly and complely wrong. US oil production may have peaked then but thats because they turned off the taps. US capacity is massive but they don't let it out for political reasons.
Harvey
sudan,most of africa also largely untapped
04.02.2008 09:21
Gassified coal is bad but still oil.
Peak oil theory does seem to drive the price of oil up though.
Iam not totally convinced on peak oil, though climate shit, no one can deny it except Clarksons codpeice.
America corporatism is greedy,but prepared for long haul, I wouldnt be suprised if they have more reserves, but it wont deal with climate change & it leads way with China in technologies that greedily replace people power with robots on a war economy, very suicidal
green syndicalist
US Peak Oil
04.02.2008 10:08
Graph of US oil production
100$ a barrel and nobody sitting on these the massive, hidden researves in the US and Saudi is interested in making a quick buck by selling this oil? When will they start selling it, when it's $200 a barrel?
When will you face up to reality -- when global production is decreasing at 5 or 15% a year? Or will you still be claiming that it's all a big plot by the US / Saudi governments / big oil?
Chris
Easy explanation
04.02.2008 10:31
"Where are all these "oil isn't finite" trolls coming from"
Well Chris let me explain this to you
1 Oil is not infinite
2 There is a lot more oil than you think because oil companies and governments are LYING ! (who'd have thought it !)
3 A story that oil is running out inflates prices (this is far from being the first time we have heard it, the first time was in 1932 !)
4 The US is keeping its massive reserves in check because it wants to see non US oil used first. Pump prices for the average American are still way below European prices despite $100 barrel on the spot market so there is no real pressure for the US to release their stocks. About 90% of the cost of fuel is driven by taxes anyway to a jump even up to $120 a barrel will have little effect on consumer prices but it will help oil company profits, I presume you saw the numbers for Shell this weekend ?
teacher
"oil info": More Oil Disinformation
04.02.2008 10:31
Would that be the link to Satellite O'er the Desert article,
"In conclusion, the re-drilling of Ghawar - even excluding the much lauded Haradh III increment -- can justifiably be classified as the largest Saudi Megaproject, at least in terms of wells drilled. And given the observed fact that virtually all of Uthmaniyah and 'Ain Dar have been filled in, there is considerably less room for further development to maintain current production rates."
It seems clear to me that the massive drilling exercise is due to a desperate attempt to maintain production, not because they have massive reserves they are hiding...
Or perhaps you were refering to the other article I referenced? Another look at the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,
"In short it increasingly looks as the KSA is at plateau, which is pretty much what they appear to have told President Bush, and he then related on to us."
David Strahn:
"The world’s proved reserves have been have been falsely puffed up by the inclusion of 300 billion barrels of speculative resources, according to the former head of exploration and production at Saudi Aramco, and this explains the industry’s inability to raise output despite soaring prices."
Chris
sudan,most of africa also largely untapped
04.02.2008 10:38
Gassified coal is bad but still oil.
Peak oil theory does seem to drive the price of oil up though.
Iam not totally convinced on peak oil, though climate shit, no one can deny it except Clarksons codpeice.
America corporatism is greedy,but prepared for long haul, I wouldnt be suprised if they have more reserves, but it wont deal with climate change & it leads way with China in technologies that greedily replace people power with robots on a war economy, very suicidal
green syndicalist
Patronising "teacher"
04.02.2008 10:47
You agree it is finite, you think that the UK governments line is right -- is this what you are here to tell us?
"The British government has never produced its own forecast of when global oil production will peak, unlike France (2013-2023) or Germany (2017). The UK has long dismissed such alarmist talk on the basis of much more sanguine forecasts from the International Energy Agency. But now even the IEA has shifted position dramatically, predicting a global oil crisis by 2012."
Perhaps you think that a "supply crunch" isn't peak oil like the IEA?
Or perhaps you think, like BP, that climate change policy will cause peak oil?
Of course if you are right we can all continue consuming loads of fossil fuels.... oh no, what about climate change... the only thing worse than an imminent / just past peak would be a late peak and even more CO2 emissions...
Either way are are seriously up shit creak...
Chris
"few quotes out of context"
04.02.2008 11:02
"I note you quickly brush over the US reserve information"
Sheesh, get a clue:
"In 1956 Hubbert predicted that production from the US lower 48 states would peak between 1965 and 1970 (
"No oil producing region fits the bell shaped curve exactly because production is dependent on various geological, economic and political factors, but the Hubbert Curve remains a powerful predictive tool."
"In retrospect, the U.S. oil peak might be seen as the most significant geopolitical event of the mid to late 20th Century, creating the conditions for the energy crises of the 1970s, leading to far greater U.S. strategic emphasis on controlling foreign sources of oil, and spelling the beginning of the end of the status of the U.S. as the world's major creditor nation. The U.S. of course, was able to import oil from elsewhere. Mounting debt has allowed life to continue in the U.S. with only minimal interruption. When global oil production peaks, the implications will be felt far more widely, and with much more force."
Chris
Climate Change is a lie..
04.02.2008 13:35
We, the un-designed, Do solemnly swear - in the interest of our fellow people, our planet and our purse-strings - that from this day forth we shall wholeheartedly endeavour to live a life more in tune with the great cosmic recycling scheme of things. There exists in the universe a code of practice that has not only ensured the survival of our planet for some 4.5 billion years, but has ultimately created a celebratory cornucopia of life. Unfortunately a small, but ultimately powerful, percentage of our own species have taken it upon themselves to upset the natural balance just so that they can hoard baubles and trinkets and all manner of glistening things. This they do in the vain hope that some of the glitter might rub off on themselves and make up for their distinct lack of mojo. Fortunately the laws of survival are neither complicated nor esoteric (which means they’re not going to cost you anything); in fact they’re open to anyone who takes time out to observe the rhythms of the universe. Adhering strictly to the Law of Fives the Great Ignoble Zenarchs developed Five Laws; this doctrine shall henceforth be known as the Uppie Dharma and shall be enshrined by the following five precepts.
1. The Untruth of Waste
Sisters and Brothers, there is no such thing as waste; there are only wasted opportunities. Before committing an object to landfill ask yourselves “Can I make further use of this? Can I reuse, repair or re(up)cycle it? Can anyone I know make use of this? Can they reuse, repair or re(up)cycle it?” If the answer to one or any of these questions is ‘yes’ (or even ‘maybe’) then the object in question is not waste, it is an opportunity - and every opportunity should be treated with the same respect afforded to each new day or dream of tomorrow. For opportunity is the watchword of the re-renaissance.Sisters and Brothers, ‘Old’ is the new ‘New’, go forth and re-create.
1. The I of the Creator
Sisters and Brothers, we are, as Erich Fromm so wisely observed, creatures that evolved to become creators. The need to create is entirely central to the human condition; indeed it is the culturally induced suppression of the creative urge that has led to the neurosis, alienation and near universal ennui that so infects the modern world. If you do not believe that our species is innately creative then give a child a crayon and let them loose on your wallpaper. Sadly, oh Siblings, we are taught to consume rather than create, but, as you well know, that iPhone, sports car, Versace dress or Andy Warhol ‘original’ will have lost its showroom/gallery aura long before you get it home. Sisters and Brothers, it is time to let your imaginations take control, it is time for the re-renaissance.
1. The Death of Forever
Sisters and Brothers, we are but farts upon a breeze, we inhabit a transient universe that is ever changing, ever dying, ever dawning. All that exists – all that was, is and will be - flows from one state to another and those little things you try so desperately to possess (gold, diamonds, lovers) melt from your grasp like eddies in a stream; the only thing that lasts forever is impermanence. Once we have dispelled the myth of forever then we can let go our grasp of material possessions; all we truly posses is the passing moment, yet we are willing to fill that moment with anxiety and suffering because of our concerns for what we own – or for what we think we should own. As purveyor of (and observer to…) the moment, the organism (us) holds sway over the inanimate (the object) and yet we – the great and intelligent godlike primates of planet Earth - behave as if we were slaves to objects. From now on look upon all things and ask of them “What is this objects value to me in this present moment?” If you haven’t thought of an answer in five minutes then pass that object on to somebody who can make use of it.And remember, oh Siblings, that even the already upcycled is constantly upcycleable; indeed there is no end to an objects upcycleability.
1. The Myth of ‘Growth’
Sisters and Brothers, according to the pseudo-scientific mumbo-jumbo known in otherwise serious academic circles as ‘Economics’, the Holy Grail of the knight errand businessman is eternal ‘Economic Growth’. Growth, of course, exists in the universe as a transition from one state to another, growth as a process is exciting, adventurous, desirable and necessary, but the notion of growth as an end in itself – indeed the economists even seem to believe in a never ending end!?! – is illogical[1]. Many weed-killers work by inhibiting a plants ability to stop growing, in other words it is killed by being forced to grow beyond its physical boundaries; what is true of plants is true of every other system in the universe. Studies have proven that once people have achieved stable access to food and shelter then their happiness level remains constant regardless of added wealth. Personal experience has shown that a person’s mojo actually diminishes with an increase in bank balance. It is delusional to think that more wealth will make you happy (and it’s just plain sad to think that you can buy mojo); therefore economics is founded on delusion. Beyond shelter, warmth, food, clothing, companionship and a comfortable pair of shoes, there is only entertainment; ask yourselves, Sisters and Brothers, who suffers for yours?
1. The Thrill of Thrift
Sisters and Brothers, ‘Never buy what you can make[2]’; herein lies the road to both creative happiness and financial independence (for spiritual independence it is also worth observing the rule ‘Never break what you cannot remake.’). When it comes to thrift we should look towards the past, for not only have we have forgotten so many thrifty techniques (our grandparents lived much thriftier – and therefore much more environmentally friendly – lives than any modern ‘green god/goddess’), but by using second hand clothes we can get some truly stylish threads.Fashion is little more than creative fascism. I for one am way too vain to wear somebody else’s name on my clothing; the clothes only maketh the man if the man maketh (or upcycleth) the clothes. Every piece of ‘designer’ clothing is 100% pure wool – that is to say it is a covering for a sheep!; see how faithfully the heard follows the fickle whim of an uptight Prima Donna one day only to laugh at their fashion faux pas the next.
We like to think that we’re ‘unique’ and yet we spend a fortune on clothes that will stop us from ‘standing out’ in a crowd, following fashion guarantees nothing but anonymity. In clothing, décor, transportation and gardening, do your own thing. Come gather ye peacocks and strut.
[1] Of course the real object under the economist’s microscope is not growth, it is greed. If you replace the word ‘growth’ with the word ‘greed’ then economic dissertations suddenly seem a lot less like complete humbug.
[2] This pearl of wisdom was gleaned from Henry David Thoreau, spiritual godfather to Uppies everywhere
[3] If you desire to have a conversation where you are not subject to the paranoia of indymedia types then goto
[4] We use indymedia as a front door to pretentiousartist.com and being in poverty we can afford a good server otherwise there would be workingclass.indymedia.org.uk
.
M M Wallis..
M M Wallis
e-mail:
worldwarfree@riseup.net
Homepage:
http://pretentiousartist.com
sudan,most of africa also largely untapped
04.02.2008 17:12
Gassified coal is bad but still oil.
Peak oil theory does seem to drive the price of oil up though.
Iam not totally convinced on peak oil, though climate shit, no one can deny it except Clarksons codpeice.
America corporatism is greedy,but prepared for long haul, I wouldnt be suprised if they have more reserves, but it wont deal with climate change & it leads way with China in technologies that greedily replace people power with robots on a war economy, very suicidal
green syndicalist
Some recent article on coal
05.02.2008 22:26
Coal prices triple as supply crisis deepens
Chris
"Peak Oil" is morphing into "Peak Food"
08.02.2008 20:18
"Peak Oil" is morphing into "Peak Food"
Some crazy loon who sees conspiracies everywhere?
Try the International Business Editor of The Telegraph:
"Global oil output has been stagnant for four years, failing to keep up with rampant demand from Asia and the Mid-East. China's imports rose 14pc last year. Biofuels from grain, oil seed and sugar are plugging the gap, but drawing away food supplies at a time when the world is adding more than 70m mouths to feed a year."
Is the debate over yet?
Chris