US report: Israel would weather nuclear war with Iran

Study compiled by US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), headed by a former Pentagon analyst, explores several hypothetical scenarios for unconventional warfare in our region. Authors find ‘Israel’s residents and economy could weather nuclear war with Iran’

Yitzhak Benhorin Published: 12.24.07, 10:11 / Israel News

WASHINGTON- A new study compiled by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), headed by former Pentagon analyst Anthony H. Cordesman, explored just such a nightmare scenario, noting that it could lead to the death of between 16- 28 million Iranian civilians, and 200-800 thousand Israelis.

This hypothetical, research-oriented study also explored other contingencies for unconventional warfare in our region, noting the tactics that various countries could potentially employ in such instances.

As pertains to nuclear warfare, the study found that an Israeli nuclear scrimmage with Iran would most likely last for about three weeks. Aside from the aforementioned direct casualties, the study could not determine how many additional long-term casualties would arise from fallout and radiation in the weeks and months following such an attack.

One essential requirement for nuclear confrontation in our region, according to the study, is allowing Iran’s nuclear program to develop, unhindered by a pre-emptive strike by either Israel or the United States. If US or Israeli preemption does not occur, the study found, Iran could very well have 30 nuclear warheads available for warfare between 2010-2020. Israel, by comparison, currently has 200 nuclear war heads with both air and sea launch capabilities, according to the study.

Given certain conditions, Israel could potentially survive such a nuclear scenario, the study found. Iran, on the other hand, would be completely and utterly obliterated. “Iranian recovery is not possible in the normal sense of term, though Israeli recovery is theoretically possible in population and economic terms,” wrote Cordesman, who compiled this study entitled “Iran, Israel, and Nuclear War”.

Israeli missiles have greater strike range

The bottom line, according to this study, is that Israel quite simply has more potent and effective bombs. (Yes, they actually HAVE nuclear weapons!)

Israel currently has a 1megaton (mt) nuclear bomb, whereas Iran does not yet have the ability to develop a bomb with more than 100 kilotons of power. What this means, in essence, is that the Israeli bomb can lead to three times as many casualties as its Iranian counterpart (chiefly due to third-degree burns), and has an “area of extreme lethality” (the range within which a nuclear bomb is fatal) ten-times as great.

Which Israeli cities are most likely to be targeted by Iran? Tel-Aviv and central Israel (all the way down to Ashdod) are the most likely targets, as is Haifa. Israel, conversely, has more than 10 Iranian cities on its “hit list” including Tehran, Tabriz, Isfahan, Qazvin, Shiraz, Yazd, Kerman, Qom, Ahvaz, and Kermanshah.

Cordseman also noted that Iran would have lower fission yields, and less accurate force into cluster targeting on Israel’s two largest urban complexes, and that the Iranian side would also most likely be thwarted by Israel’s missile defense systems. Notable among these is the “Arrow 2” anti-ballistic missile which could most potentially shoot down most nuclear missiles launched by Iran.

Furthermore, Israel could strike Iran with far grater accuracy and precision, hitting its cities with deadly aim utilizing both its own satellites, as well as those of the United States.

The study also examined what would occur if Syria would join the Israeli-Iranian nuclear fray. Syria, Cordesman estimated, could kill an additional 800 thousand Israelis with missiles armed with chemical or biological warheads. The Syrian side, however, could suffer up to 18 million casualties should Israel respond with a nuclear strike.

If Egypt should join its Arab neighbors in battle, the study finds, Israel would most likely respond with a nuclear strike at Cairo and other major cities, as well as by destroying the Aswan dam.

www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3486011,00.html

Well, Duh. Unlike Israel, Iran doesn't have nuclear weapons.

There is one small microscopic factor the authors of this study chose to ignore, and it's the rhinoceros in the living room.
Russia has stated in no uncertain terms that the will consider any attack against Iran as an attack against Russia.

Just how would Israel fare in a war with Russia?

That is a question these authors prefer to leave unanswered.

New Tactic Against Iran Smacks of Desperation

Never underestimate Extremists when they become this desperate. Only you can stop them before they make this a whole lot worse for us all. They are the only real threat.

US wants Iran to admit to nuke program

Senior US Envoy: Iran Needs to Admit to Past Weapons Program

GEORGE JAHN
AP News

Dec 21, 2007 16:04 EST

Iran must "confess" to running a past nuclear weapons program or its claims of cooperating with a U.N. investigation will not be credible, the chief U.S. envoy to the U.N. atomic watchdog agency said Friday.

(Since the IAEA has stated unequivocally that Iran has no weapons program, and has cooperated with its inspections, this is a desperate attempt to undo that success, reframe the debate, and perpetuate the illusion of a crisis.)

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, meanwhile, said in Washington that if Iran wants U.N. sanctions lifted and avoid new ones, it must halt uranium enrichment and related activities that could make the ingredients for an atomic bomb.

(This is the US Regime's way of avoiding meaningful negotiations, since they don't really care about this issue, as they know they're just making it up, and only want a war with Iran.)

If Iran complies, Rice said she was "prepared to meet my (Iranian) counterpart any place and anytime and anywhere, and we can talk about anything." But "as long as the Iranians are talking and practicing enrichment, we're not getting anywhere," she said.

(Enrichment is Iran's right under the NPT, and these demands are a way to scuttle talks, and ensure that diplomacy cannot work. This should be what is discussed, not a demand to preclude negotiations.)

Iran says it needs an enrichment program to produce fuel for civilian power plants, but Washington suspects it is part of its ultimate drive to possess nuclear weapons. Low enriched uranium generates power, but highly enriched, it has no use other than for the fissile payload of nuclear warheads.

(Responsible journalists would have explained that Iran's growing energy demands and limited petroleum refining capability supports these claims, while the US has no evidence to support their empty allegations. As well, vastly more construction would be required to start a refining process necessary for a weapons program, which would be immediately evident to the many eyes peering at Iran.)

Gregory L. Schulte, the chief U.S. delegate to the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, said Iran's refusal to suspend enrichment "violates Security Council resolutions and casts doubt on its leaders' ultimate intent."

(The Resolutions, which were designed to create a crisis, violates Iran's NPT rights. Several investigations are currently underway into allegations that the US coerced nations like India to vote for these resolutions.)

"Iran is already a danger in the Middle East," Schulte said. "That danger only increases as Iran's leaders shorten the timeline to produce nuclear weapons."

(The only real threat to the region is that posed by Israeli and American Extremists, who have already started several illegal wars, are conducting illegal covert wars against others - including Iran - are illegally brutalizing the Palestinians, and have created this crisis in order to start another war.)

The IAEA has been investigating Iran's nuclear programs since revelations in 2003 that the country had conducted nearly two decades of secret atomic activities, including developing enrichment and working on experiments that could be linked to a weapons program.

(However, none of this work was ACTUALLY linked to any weapons program. This irresponsible misrepresentation of the IAEA's work is reminiscent of the media's complicity in starting the disastrous war against Iraq.)

A recently published U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that in the same year, Iran stopped direct work on creating nuclear arms.

(But this claim only comes from a single, unreliable source, and is not in any way supported by any hard evidence.)

Under a plan agreed to earlier this year with the IAEA, Iran committed itself to answering all lingering questions about its past nuclear activities. That, by implication, included programs that could have weapons applications.

"We are looking for an acknowledgment that they had nuclear weapons," Schulte said. "The end of the year is rapidly approaching (and) we are waiting to see if Iran's leaders are ready to confess."

(They never had nuclear weapons. The desperation, and willingness to do anything to start a war, on the part of the Israeli and American Extremists is frighteningly apparent.)

However, the agreement between Iran and the IAEA makes no direct mention of a clandestine Iranian weapons program, and because Iran denies it ever tried to develop one, the U.S. demands are unlikely to be met.

(Because it is a ludicrous request ...)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called the U.S. intelligence estimate a victory for his country, and officials of other governments have suggested it could relieve pressure on the Islamic republic.

Schulte warned against such interpretations. Iran had been engaged in a "concerted, covert program, conducted by military entities, under the direction of Iran's government," he said. "Iran's leaders could choose to restart that program."

(But there is no evidence that such a program ever existed. Using the Neo-Con's own terms for 'pre-emption', wouldn't Iran be justified in attacking Israel or the US, both nulcear powers, since they're plotting to attack the country ... ?)

Still, the revised U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran has stiffened resistance from permanent U.N. Security Council members Russia and China to moving quickly on a third set of sanctions against Iran.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has said he wants to wrap up the investigation by December. But diplomats accredited to the agency, who demanded anonymity because their information was confidential, told The Associated Press this week that the agency had run into unspecified obstacles, and that Iranian officials were now talking about March as the new deadline — something they said the United States and its allies would be unlikely to accept.

(El Baredei also said that any attack on Iran would be "an act of Madness", and was subsequently attacked/slandered by the Israeli Government, and the US tapped his phones.)

___

Associated Press writer Matthew Lee contributed to this report from Washington.

www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/US_wants_Iran_to_admit_to_nuke_prog_122120

After the NIE report, the UN isn't going to consider any further sanctions, which China and Russia would simply veto anyway. (And which the US and Israel are only using to leverage a 'legal' justification for a war they view as inevitable, whose planning precedes both Ahmadinejad and the nuclear power program.)

Russia has begun shipping fuel to the reactor site, and even if it's just the rods which are hit at this point, the resulting fire from a military attack hitting the rods and graphite would cause a regional catastrophe.

Russia has already stated that an attack on Iran will be perceived as an attack on Iran.

The word "checkmate" comes to mind, but one can never entirely dismiss the potential for sheer craziness and hubris coming from DC and Tel Aviv.

Iran, Nukes, and the 'Laptop of Death'
How we were almost lied into war – again
www.antiwar.com/justin/?articleid=12030

'Laptop of Death': Revising the NIE on Iran

The claim that Iran once had a nuclear program comes from a single, questionable source, reminiscent of the false information passed to the US neo-cons by Ahmad Chalabi.

www.antiwar.com/ips/akhavi.php?articleid=12028


Israeli Extremists Still Plotting to Attack Iran!
israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/8194/index.php

Israel Considering Strike on Iran Despite US Intelligence Report
www.winnipeg.indymedia.org/item.php?8859S

Israel's New Strategy to Start Iran War
www.winnipeg.indymedia.org/item.php?9115S

US, Israel Finalise Iran Strike Plan
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/6912/index.php

Report on Iran May Scupper Future Sanctions
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/8137/index.php

Israel and the USA Plotting to Attack Iran
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/7549/index.php

Plot Against Iran Proceeds, But UN Refutes Neo-Fascists On Nuclear Canard
Gulf States Deny Israel Airspace To Attack Iran
www.israel.indymedia.org/mod/comments/display/6150/index.php

Israel: War With Iran May Be Unavoidable

A sure way to avoid war is to remove the Extremists in the Knesset who are trying to start it.

www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/8115/index.php

Demonizing Iran: Towards A US/Israeli Act of Aggression
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/7523/index.php

Behind The US/Israeli Plan To Bomb Iran
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/5242/index.php

Israel's Extremists Brief Top U.S. Official on Iran
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/8125/index.php

Olmert Extremists Create New Ministry To Deal With "Iran Threat"
(Or Create The Image of a Threat ...)
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/5755/index.php

Israel's Syrian Air Strike Was Aimed at Iran
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/7958/index.php

Olmert Extremists Still Determined To Attack Iran, Syria
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/5783/index.php

Israel, US Join Forces on Iran, Attack ElBaredei
www.israel.indymedia.org/newswire/display/7857/index.php