Afghan experts contradict Military "optimism"
Afghaniblog | 30.03.2007 15:28 | Analysis | Anti-militarism | Terror War | World
"The main complaint that I hear from Afghans is not that we're imposing something on them that we don't want, but that we haven't delivered what they think we promised."
Smith questions whether NATO can achieve its stated goals, even within a period of 10 years.
Smith questions whether NATO can achieve its stated goals, even within a period of 10 years.
AfghaniBlog: But our government leaders would never lie to us - rignt?
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Afghan experts contradict optimism of Canadian Military
Barnett Rubin is a U.S. scholar who has been to Afghanistan 29 times and followed it for more than two decades
Gordon Smith, Canada's former ambassador to NATO
The two leading experts on Afghanistan painted a sobering picture:
support among Afghans for NATO forces is plummeting,
the U.S.-driven policy of poppy eradication is wrongheaded, and
the war might not be winnable in its present form.
RUBIN
Rubin said many Afghans are growing frustrated with the pace of Western efforts to stabilize the country.
"They're not at all happy. Support for both the international presence and the government has plummeted in the past year or so," he told the House of Commons foreign affairs committee.
Afghans aren't seeing the results of promises by the United States and NATO, which took over the mission in 2003, to increase security, establish democracy and improve the economy.
"The main complaint that I hear from Afghans is not that we're imposing something on them that we don't want, but that we haven't delivered what they think we promised."
Rubin recently published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine warning Afghanistan "is at risk of collapsing into chaos" – blasting the U.S. government for underestimating the influence of Pakistan, as a "safe haven" to the Taliban.
SMITH
Smith threw cold water on Hillier's suggestion that Canadian troops are facing a weakened enemy.
There is evidence that al-Qaeda-affiliated militants, who often fight alongside the Taliban, are actually gaining strength, said Smith, now executive director of the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Victoria.
Smith questions whether NATO can achieve its stated goals, even within a period of 10 years. Canada has committed to maintain its military presence until 2009. "If we're serious, and we've got to be serious, we'll be there for a long time,"
Smith argues:
NATO needs to increase its troop commitment, while
deploying development aid more effectively and
opening political negotiations with the Taliban.
He is also harshly critical of the policy of eradicating poppy crops to curb the drug trade.
HILLIER
Days earlier Canada's top military commander, Gen. Rick Hillier, touted the progress being made in Afghanistan.
--------------------------------
BACKGROUND
Cdn Military: Afghan war winnable
The commander of Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan says "the war is winnable," but only if NATO succeeds in eradicating the opium trade and corruption among the Afghan National Police.
-Why we are really there
The "Great Game" Revisited: OIL in central Asia
The Economist: Afghan peace lies between India and Pakistan
Afghan Instability: A Geo-Political Strategy
-What others are saying
Canadian Senate Report on Afghanistan - Condensed
The Committee was impressed by the optimism of Canadian troops and their leaders ... but ... we found it hard to square that with reality.
Anyone expecting to see the emergence in Afghanistan within the next several decades of a recognizable modern democracy ... is dreaming in Technicolor.
Our former former Ambassador to Afghanistan , Chris Alexander, said it would take 5 generations of effort to make a difference in Afghanistan .
Privy Council Report: Vast majority still struggle for the "bare essentials of survival"
The bleak forecast of the heavily censored report is at odds with recent claims by other Canadian officials
It says the vast majority of the population still struggles for the "bare essentials of survival," just as they did in the days of the Taliban
Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Instititute report: Work with -not against- Taliban
One of the experts that we asked about how many troops would be needed for a military victory said, 'Oh, maybe half a million.' So adding a couple of thousand is wonderful but it doesn't do anything."
Black Watchman & UK Foreign Officer - We are Fools
Afghans are saying, "Bring back the Russians: At least they built dams and roads."
I have noticed that many Afghans now simply assume we are engaged in a grand conspiracy. Nothing else in their minds can explain the surreal gap between our language and performance.
Many of the people we are fighting have no fixed political manifesto. Almost none have links to Al Qaeda or an interest in attacking U.S. soil.
Afghans reject NATO - prefer Taliban
52% in US controlled areas wanted NATO to leave the country
27% openly admitted to supporting the Taliban (Dec/05 it was 3%)
49 % thought NATO would lose to the Taliban
-Why we are there / al Qaeda?
ISAF: Little evidence of foreign fighters
"We do know there are some foreign fighters in this country, but it is a very small percentage" - ISAF spokesman Tom Collins
BBC: US 'planned attack on Taleban two months before 9-11
Niaz Naik, a former Pakistani Foreign Secretary, was told by senior American officials in mid-July that military action against Afghanistan would go ahead by the middle of October.
FBI Director: Not One Piece of Paper Links Afghans to 9-11
“In our investigation, we have not uncovered a single piece of paper – either here in the U.S. or in the treasure trove of information that has turned up in Afghanistan and elsewhere – that mentioned any aspect of the September 11th plot.”
Live Links at:
http://afghaniblog.livejournal.com/78455.html -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afghan experts contradict optimism of Canadian Military
Barnett Rubin is a U.S. scholar who has been to Afghanistan 29 times and followed it for more than two decades
Gordon Smith, Canada's former ambassador to NATO
The two leading experts on Afghanistan painted a sobering picture:
support among Afghans for NATO forces is plummeting,
the U.S.-driven policy of poppy eradication is wrongheaded, and
the war might not be winnable in its present form.
RUBIN
Rubin said many Afghans are growing frustrated with the pace of Western efforts to stabilize the country.
"They're not at all happy. Support for both the international presence and the government has plummeted in the past year or so," he told the House of Commons foreign affairs committee.
Afghans aren't seeing the results of promises by the United States and NATO, which took over the mission in 2003, to increase security, establish democracy and improve the economy.
"The main complaint that I hear from Afghans is not that we're imposing something on them that we don't want, but that we haven't delivered what they think we promised."
Rubin recently published an article in Foreign Affairs magazine warning Afghanistan "is at risk of collapsing into chaos" – blasting the U.S. government for underestimating the influence of Pakistan, as a "safe haven" to the Taliban.
SMITH
Smith threw cold water on Hillier's suggestion that Canadian troops are facing a weakened enemy.
There is evidence that al-Qaeda-affiliated militants, who often fight alongside the Taliban, are actually gaining strength, said Smith, now executive director of the Centre for Global Studies at the University of Victoria.
Smith questions whether NATO can achieve its stated goals, even within a period of 10 years. Canada has committed to maintain its military presence until 2009. "If we're serious, and we've got to be serious, we'll be there for a long time,"
Smith argues:
NATO needs to increase its troop commitment, while
deploying development aid more effectively and
opening political negotiations with the Taliban.
He is also harshly critical of the policy of eradicating poppy crops to curb the drug trade.
HILLIER
Days earlier Canada's top military commander, Gen. Rick Hillier, touted the progress being made in Afghanistan.
--------------------------------
BACKGROUND
Cdn Military: Afghan war winnable
The commander of Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan says "the war is winnable," but only if NATO succeeds in eradicating the opium trade and corruption among the Afghan National Police.
-Why we are really there
The "Great Game" Revisited: OIL in central Asia
The Economist: Afghan peace lies between India and Pakistan
Afghan Instability: A Geo-Political Strategy
-What others are saying
Canadian Senate Report on Afghanistan - Condensed
The Committee was impressed by the optimism of Canadian troops and their leaders ... but ... we found it hard to square that with reality.
Anyone expecting to see the emergence in Afghanistan within the next several decades of a recognizable modern democracy ... is dreaming in Technicolor.
Our former former Ambassador to Afghanistan , Chris Alexander, said it would take 5 generations of effort to make a difference in Afghanistan .
Privy Council Report: Vast majority still struggle for the "bare essentials of survival"
The bleak forecast of the heavily censored report is at odds with recent claims by other Canadian officials
It says the vast majority of the population still struggles for the "bare essentials of survival," just as they did in the days of the Taliban
Canadian Defence & Foreign Affairs Instititute report: Work with -not against- Taliban
One of the experts that we asked about how many troops would be needed for a military victory said, 'Oh, maybe half a million.' So adding a couple of thousand is wonderful but it doesn't do anything."
Black Watchman & UK Foreign Officer - We are Fools
Afghans are saying, "Bring back the Russians: At least they built dams and roads."
I have noticed that many Afghans now simply assume we are engaged in a grand conspiracy. Nothing else in their minds can explain the surreal gap between our language and performance.
Many of the people we are fighting have no fixed political manifesto. Almost none have links to Al Qaeda or an interest in attacking U.S. soil.
Afghans reject NATO - prefer Taliban
52% in US controlled areas wanted NATO to leave the country
27% openly admitted to supporting the Taliban (Dec/05 it was 3%)
49 % thought NATO would lose to the Taliban
-Why we are there / al Qaeda?
ISAF: Little evidence of foreign fighters
"We do know there are some foreign fighters in this country, but it is a very small percentage" - ISAF spokesman Tom Collins
BBC: US 'planned attack on Taleban two months before 9-11
Niaz Naik, a former Pakistani Foreign Secretary, was told by senior American officials in mid-July that military action against Afghanistan would go ahead by the middle of October.
FBI Director: Not One Piece of Paper Links Afghans to 9-11
“In our investigation, we have not uncovered a single piece of paper – either here in the U.S. or in the treasure trove of information that has turned up in Afghanistan and elsewhere – that mentioned any aspect of the September 11th plot.”
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home-grown radicals could be as much of a threat as international terrorists.
30.03.2007 22:16
There's "no question" that the elimination of terrorist training camps in Afghanistan has made Canada safer, the prime minister's national security adviser said Monday.
But Margaret Bloodworth also said that the terror threat remains and there is no room for complacency because now home-grown radicals could be as much of a threat as international terrorists.
Bloodworth, a veteran bureaucrat and a former deputy defence minister, became Stephen Harper's national security adviser last fall. She is the key conduit linking the country's security agencies and the cabinet.
In her first appearance before the Senate committee on defence and national security, Bloodworth said she believes that the removal of the Afghan terror training facilities protects Canada.
Before the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the Taliban regime fostered the operations of a variety of terror training operations, including al-Qaida. They collapsed as the Taliban was overthrown and its leaders fled.
Bloodworth said that is a good thing.
"I think not having those provides a safer environment here and in other countries as well."
She added, however, that there is no perfect security and that Canada remains a target for the al-Qaida terror group.
"There is no question that Canada is on the list," she told the senators.
"There is no question that there are people affiliated in some way to the al-Qaida ideology that would do us harm if they saw a serious opportunity to do so. I don't think we are the prime target. There are others who would come ahead of us if they had a chance."
She said, though, she doesn't known why Canada hasn't had a major domestic terror attack, despite being on the terror hit list.
"I would be very hesitant to say we do things a lot better than our allies."
She said al-Qaida has become a more diffuse group in recent years.
"I think someone described it as like a franchise. Unfortunately, that may make it more difficult to track because some of it is home-grown radicalization. We have certainly seen that in the UK, but we are not immune to it in this country."
She pointed to the arrests in Toronto last summer of a group of men who were allegedly plotting terror attacks here.
Bloodworth, who has a direct line to Harper on security matters, also co-ordinates the efforts of security agencies ranging from CSIS and the RCMP to the secretive Communications Security Establishment.
She was asked if Canada's military presence in Afghanistan has made Canada more of a target for terror.
"It's something I watch for," she said. "I haven't seen direct evidence of that. I've heard people say it. I haven't seen any myself.
"I have seen nothing I can put my hands on and say that is evidence that the fact that we're in Afghanistan has meant somebody is plotting more here.
"I'm not saying it's impossible, I just haven't seen it."
Bloodworth was asked about possible CIA operations in Canada.
She said the U.S. spy agency has a station in Ottawa and that she would expect to be told of any of their operations here.
"I can't say I am aware of every single thing they do in Canada. I certainly would not expect them to be conducting operations in Canada unless we were aware of them and had agreed and I'm not aware of any such."
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