Olmert in Moscow / Sowing the seeds of a preemptive strike

By Yossi Melman

This is the first time that an Israeli prime minister has talked openly about the fact that it is necessary to create conditions that "cause Iran to be afraid that something they do not want to happen to them will happen to them." This is the most far-reaching threat uttered by an Israeli leader in an effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. No less important, these statements were made on Russian soil.

For nearly a decade, Israel viewed Russia as the main source from which Iran acquired nuclear technology, know-how and materials for its nuclear program - through which it aspired to develop nuclear weapons. Israel, along with the United States, tried to convince Moscow to prevent the trickle of nuclear technology to Iran. Former U.S. vice president Al Gore headed these efforts, and set up a coordination mechanism with then-Russian prime minister Victor Chernomyrdin. The heads of the Mossad and Israel's National Security Agency and Atomic Energy Committee have traveled abroad since 1995 to convince their counterparts that Russian support for Iran's nuclear efforts was problematic.

At the center of Israeli claims was the fact that Russia was constructing an electrical reactor in Iran, near Bushehr, for the production of electricity. Based on the knowledge Iran would acquire from this reactor, it would develop a secret nuclear program. The Russians always countered with a challenge: Show us proof that the Iranians are developing nuclear weapons with our help. Such proof was never produced, because it was argued that secret intelligence gathering would be exposed.

In fact, neither Israel nor the U.S. had any real proof.

But now it seems that Israel has altered its approach. This stems from two reasons. The first is that Russia had undertaken its own efforts in recent years to delay support of the Bushehr reactor's construction. The fact is that the reactor is still not operational, and if it does begin operations next year, that will come following a three- to four-year delay. In other words, Russia made delaying efforts, and found excuses allowing it not to transfer to Iran enriched uranium (low grade), which it has committed to provide as fuel for the Bushehr reactor.

The second reason is that it turns out that the main source from which Iran acquired nuclear technology was not Russia but Pakistan. The father of the Pakistani bomb, Dr. Abdul Kader Khan, and his smuggling ring, has been responsible for transfering to Iran the blueprints for constructing the centrifuges necessary for enriching uranium, and for developing the necessary dense material for nuclear weapons. This was carried out contrary to intelligence assessments in the U.S., Israel and Europe.

This insight is what lies behind the change in Israel's policy. Not only is the conclusion that Russia is not the problem, but Moscow is now considered an essential component in international efforts to formulate a consensus that efficient sanctions must be imposed on Tehran. Sanctions of that sort will make Iran "feel scared."

But above all, Olmert sought in his current visit to inform the Russians that if the sanctions do not help and deter Iran from achieving its aims, Israel will not be able to reconcile with a nuclear Iran led by a president who declares the need to wipe Israel off the face of the map. In other words, the prime minister has sown the seeds of the possibility that Israel may be forced to carry out a preemptive strike against Iran if the international community does not succeed in its diplomatic efforts, and if no international force is used against Iran.

www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/776624.html

Iran must be intimidated, says Israeli leader by Ron Bousso
Wed Oct 18, 3:01 PM ET

MOSCOW (AFP) - Visiting Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert stepped up rhetoric against Iran, saying the its controversial nuclear program could be prevented through intimidation.


Speaking to reporters following meetings with President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, Olmert said he had told Putin that "there was no chance of preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear arms if Iran is not afraid.

"The Iranians should be afraid that something they don't want to happen will occur," he said.

Olmert went on to say that "I made it clear why in my opinion it is important that the Iranians are afraid," but he fell short of mentioning what measures that be taken against the Islamic state.

He nevertheless sought a tougher Russian stance against Iran, where Russian engineers are building the country's first reactor.

"We are at a critical juncture and the entire international community must join ranks to block Iran's true intention of arming itself with nuclear weapons," Olmert told journalists after talks with Putin in the Kremlin.

"I leave this meeting with the sense that President Putin understands that danger."

Olmert described Iran's atomic project -- which Tehran insists is restricted to a civilian power program -- as "a threat to Israel which we cannot reconcile ourselves to."

The Israeli leader later held talks with Defence Minister Sergei Ivanov later Wednesday and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday, as well as meeting Jewish community leaders.

Russia is constructing Iran's first civilian nuclear power station at Bushehr and has resisted a push for UN sanctions, arguing these could provoke a regional crisis. Moscow also supplies the Islamic republic with sophisticated conventional weapons.

Backed by its US ally, Israel says sanctions are necessary following Tehran's failure to suspend uranium enrichment, a process Israel, the United States and several European powers say hides a secret nuclear weapons program.

Israel -- widely considered the Middle East's sole, if undeclared nuclear weapons power -- considers Iran its chief foe, pointing to calls from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to wipe the Jewish state off the map and alleged Iranian backing for the Lebanese Hezbollah militia and Palestinian militant groups.

Olmert's trip marked the 15th anniversary of the renewal of diplomatic ties between Russia and Israel, following the Soviet collapse. Although tensions over Moscow's ties with Iran and Syria topped the agenda, both leaders stressed their countries' close relationship.

Putin said after talks that the struggles against "terror, extremism and nationalist disputes" united the two countries. The Russian foreign ministry issued a statement praising joint efforts "against modern challenges and threats, including the fight against international terrorism."

Olmert hailed Russia as a "dominant and crucial factor in the world" and recalled that Putin had promised during his visit to Israel last year that "Russia's relations in the Middle East will no longer be one-sided."

Iran is not the only sticking point, however.

Israel also claims that Russian weaponry sold to Syria has been passed on to Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, who allegedly used the latest Russian-made anti-tank rockets to deadly effect during fighting with the Israeli army in July and August.

Moscow has also raised eyebrows in both Israel and the United States by maintaining contacts with the radical Palestinian movement Hamas.

The Vremya Novostei daily reported Wednesday that Putin was furious over reports that Syria had supplied Hezbollah with weapons sold by Russia.

"However, this does not mean that Russia will completely stop selling weapons to Iran and Syria, as the Israelis want," the daily predicted.

"Cooperation with Tehran and Damascus, including in the oil and gas and atomic (energy) spheres, bring Moscow dividends -- and not only material. Russia plays a unique middleman role."

Olmert reiterated at the Kremlin that he was ready to meet with Palestinian Authority chairman, Mahmoud Abbas. However, he said peace with the Palestinians was impossible without recognition of Israel's right to exist and an end to militant attacks.

news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061018/ts_afp/russiaisraeldiplomacy_061018190116

In other words, he's ready to 'negotiate', but the Palestinians have to meet Israel's demands first ...

Olmert fails to win Russian pledge for anti-Iran stance

Compiled by Daily Star staff
Thursday, October 19, 2006

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert failed Wednesday to win a public pledge from Russia for a tougher stance against Iran's nuclear program, as Tehran warned that imposing sanctions would have consequences for the wider Middle East. Olmert said he also talked with President Vladimir Putin about the need for an embargo on weapons sales to Iran and Syria and about Russia's role as a mediator in reviving the peace process.

"We are at an historical crossroads and we do not have the privilege of ignoring the real intention of Iran, whose leadership has called publicly and declaratively for Israel's destruction," Olmert said at a joint news conference with Putin.

"The entire international community must join ranks to block Iran's intention of arming itself with nuclear weapons."

"I leave this meeting with the sense that President Putin understands the danger that is lurking from Iran's direction, should it succeed in realizing its objectives of arming itself with nuclear weapons," he added.

But Putin himself remained stonily silent, saying nothing about Iran at the conference.

Russia is constructing Iran's first civilian nuclear power station at Bushehr and has resisted a push for UN sanctions, arguing these could provoke a regional crisis.

Iran is not the only sticking point, however.

Israeli security officials claim Russian-made arms supplied to Syria were used by the Hizbullah in Israel's recent war on Lebanon.

Olmert said he had emphasized to Putin "the importance of implementing a weapons

embargo on countries that pass weapons to Hizbullah and on the Syrian and Iranian involvement in Lebanon."

Russian officials have rejected Israeli calls for a halt to arms exports to Tehran and Damascus, including a contract to supply the Iranian military with Tor-1M anti-aircraft missile systems. Moscow says the weapons are purely defensive.

The European Union on Tuesday declared the standoff with Iran must now go the UN.
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But Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, said Wednesday sanctions would make ending the standoff even harder.

"If the Europeans give into US pressure, the situation will radicalize in such a way that Iran will suffer the least and the West will suffer the most," he told the Mehr news agency.

Larijani also said that if sanctions are pursued, this "will accentuate the regional crisis" in the Middle East.

"The adventurist actions of the US [against Iran at the Security Council] would have consequences on a regional scale," he added, without elaborating.

He reiterated warnings Iran could suspend its policy of allowing International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to carry out checks on its nuclear sites.

Just hours before Putin met Olmert, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Moscow did not see an immediate threat coming from Iran.

"It is necessary to act on Iran but that action should be in direct proportion to what is really happening," the RIA news agency quoted him as saying.

"And what is really happening is what the IAEA reports to us. And the IAEA is not reporting to us about the presence there of a threat to peace and security," Lavrov added.

Putin said ties between Israel and Russia had been "completely transformed" in recent years and were now based on a greater degree of mutual trust.

Olmert's two-day visit to Russia coincides with the 15th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Putin said Russia would push for the peace process to be stepped up. "The only way to get out of the vicious circle of violence is to stop making mutual accusations, free hostages and resume peaceful dialogue."

Olmert hailed Russia as a "dominant and crucial factor in the world" but recalled Putin's promise during a visit to Israel last year that "Russia's relations in the Middle East will no longer be one-sided." - Agencies

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