Mexico City Monthly
2nd July, 2006.-Just a few hours away from the lavishly nurtured Mexican presidential elections releasing their results, the most recent opinion polls show a new surge in favor of the left wing’s candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. If the elections were to confirm this trend, we would be facing the first left-wing triumph in Mexico’s modern history.

A movement that has never so far gained the presidency, and only governed some states of the country. López Obrador, tirelessly mauled by his opponents’ publicity over a six-month campaign, dubbed “The Messiah of the Tropics”, “The Macuspana Holy Man” (the Tabasco village where he was born), and repeatedly compared with Hugo Chávez, has withstood all the jibes and won – despite a stony path – the electors’ trust.

In this difficult process he has been backed up by one of the most expert men of war, ex-governor of Zacatecas and candidate to the Senate, Ricardo Monreal Ávila. We talk to López Obrador’s adept citizen-network manager, highlighting some of the main social preoccupations about the PRD (Democratic Revolution Party) project, brought up over the last few months.

The ever-enthusiastic Monreal has one foot in an airplane. He’s accompanying the presidential candidate to the north of the country. But we make the most of these empty minutes and I ask, if the counts confirm that López Obrador has won, and after such a long and slanderous campaign between the parties, how will the new PRD government be thinking of closing up the wounds and generating a governable atmosphere?

“We’ll have to call a grand pact, something Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been talking about since before this election, for some months, along with how he’s going to make an appeal for national reconciliation, so all of us Mexicans are united under the new government,” he explains. He insists that Andrés Manuel will fulfill all his pledges for the country’s good. He recognises that this is a very important stage where the figures and sectors of the population will be summoned in their entirety to overcome the challenges inherent in the country’s future.

“THE PRI, INDISPENSIBLE”

There is no doubt that the campaigns have been really tough in mudslinging, above all between the PRD and the PAN (National Action Party). Now, perhaps in a spirit of resentment or revenge, it could be that this right-wing party will seek to obstruct or reject López Obrador’s proposals.

But Monreal doesn’t think so. “The country comes over and above personal positions,” he assures me. “And I think that PAN activists themselves, or whoever ends up in the houses of representatives and senators, will act responsibly.” The northerner accepts that the evolution of the contest generates friction, wears people down, but finally everything ends up as mere “anecdotes”. And now, he proposes, “we have to start building the new reality of the country, the solutions”. And this job will involve not only PAN members, but all the parties, “including the PRI [Institutional Revolutionary Party],” he stresses, “which is indispensable to building agreements”.

One of the PRD’s proposals that, in its time, drained the color from some conservative faces, was the announcement of a change in the economic model. The substitution of “neo-liberalism” with something else, it was said, without ever making clear what option it would be or what it might be called, especially since they decided that foreign investment and the free market would go on. Well?

“The economic model proposed by Andrés Manuel means benefits for two important sectors of the economy. On one hand his project is rooted in social well-being and on the other in economic growth, there cannot be one without the other,” the coordinator points out. And he goes on: what is being proposed is “a shakedown and a correction” of the neo-liberal project.

Strengthening the internal market in order to achieve greater competitivity in business, in industry, and at the same time maintaining “macro” economic variables such as inflation regulation, debt and making sure the deficit doesn’t shoot up.

But there’s more to this PRD man. He says, convinced, that “despite the negative coverage and ferocious criticism Andrés Manuel has had of his economic project, he will act responsibly and this new project will have an effect once and for all on eliminating neo-liberal politics and strengthening the internal market, generating employment and real possibilities of economic growth”.

LEFT WING LIKE THAT OF CHILE

But since he still hasn’t told me what his new economic model is called, I ask him if it will be similar to one in use in another country, if there is one. “I think it is a project similar to that of Chile, and to those implemented by social-democrat governments, those interested in people, social well-being”, he answers.

And he gives it a name: “a social well-being State, as applies to many European countries”.

Then I ask him about the fear there is that his “champion” will apply absurd measures like “welfarism”, or “populism”, both old hat and known to have failed in the past.

But he disputes this: “Andrés Manuel is very clear about what we need and want and what we are going to prove, once the votes are counted, once he qualifies for the proper bodies, he will prove to the people that the economic project can vary and can be more beneficial for the majority”.

So forget old-school maneuvering, confirms Ricardo, who’s lined up to be Social Development Secretary. Forget a return to the political and economic system of ex-presidents Luis Echeverría and José López Portillo. But how will it be different from these paternalist, welfarist systems?

“It’s totally different, because Andrés Manuel is proposing social well-being based on economic growth, not social well-being based on debt.” Furthermore, he indicates, the Tabascan aims to turn the national resource of petroleum into a lever for the country’s development.

A SAVING OF 100 BILLION

But there other points that aren’t at all clear Another thing, I mention: the PRD candidate has promised to make electricity, gasoline and gas cheaper, which would mean a significant loss of income for the government. At the same time he promotes aid for old people all over the country and some other subsidies.

How have you made this add up? How can income go down and public spending increase at the same time?

The answer is in significant saving.

“There is a very serious economic policy but there is also a reduction of the country’s bureaucracy’s privileges. The Mexican bureaucracy is one of the most expensive in the world, because of the salaries. They are paid with more resources than in Europe or the United States. What Andrés Manuel is proposing is a rationality in the use of these resources and and a lessening of this difference between those on top and those down below, the bosses and the average workers. The proposal is to moderate the high bureaucracy, rationalise government spending, diminish its costs and transfer all this to the social well-being policy. He calculates that in the first year around 100 billion pesos can be saved, to be used on social policy.”

“And in this way he would avoid falling into debt?”

“Yes. It would be a saving of 100 billion. No debt. That’s how the building of the refineries could get started, and a very ambitious infrastructure program, and social policy would also be reinforced in programs for old people, school materials, single mothers and children with learning difficulties.” This would be an historic triumph for the left in Mexico. But in Latin America very different left wings are in government, such as that of Michelle Bachelet in Chile or Lula in Brazil on one side, or that of Hugo Chávez in Venezuela or Evo Morales in Bolivia. In terms now not just of the new economic model, but of politics, what type of left wing would López Obrador’s government be? Also similar to Bachelet’s?

“Yes, Andrés Manuel will act as a statesman, not as a temporary politician. He has a great responsibility, and his politics will be very sui generis, supporting people, without debt, without taking radical positions that could unsettle capitals,” he points out.

And the message López Obrador is sending to foreign investors, he says in passing, is for them to have confidence, that they’ll be better off with him, that there’ll be neither tithes, nor encouragement-verging-on-corruption for them to invest. The only thing Andrés Manuel wants is to generate wealth, for them to pay taxes and in that way for there to be a better distribution of wealth in the country.

And therefore, nothing about nationalizing the banks. Nor wanting to be re-elected.

“No, no, there’s no chance of that. Andrés Manuel is a democrat. That’s something made up by opponents trying to damage his image.” I ask him how he thinks the PRD’s possible triumph will be received in the United States, in the context of a complicated bilateral relationship, with the new anti-immigrant wall and the partial migration reform there. The United States cares about migration, terrorism and drug trafficking. “I would say that the best person to tackle those three issues is López Obrador. We want a good relationship with the United States.” He will act with dignity, as representative of a free, dignified country, without entering into confrontation processes.

On parting I wonder what role Ricardo Monreal will play in this new six-year period, regardless of whether López Obrador or Felipe Calderón wins. But, evasive, he doesn’t fall into the trap: “We are very far from assuming triumphant attitudes or assigning positions. First we have to win and then we’ll see what’s next”.