The future is less than clear
Jonathan Halevi | 14.06.2006 12:15
UNDERSTANDING THE DIRECTION OF THE NEW HAMAS GOVERNMENT: Between Tactical Pragmatism and Al-Qaeda Jihadism
by Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi
by Lt. Col. (res.) Jonathan D. Halevi
Hamas has reaped the fruits of the "Green Revolution" that it led in recent years to win many local authority elections, obtain a stable majority in the Palestinian parliament, and take decisive control of executive authority. Hamas' tactical agreement to play by the democratic rules was a Trojan horse. It exploited the fragmentation of Fatah and the weakness of the Palestinian Authority to achieve political dominance as a first stage toward establishing Islamic rule that will implement Sharia law and lead, in fact, to the eradication of democracy.
Hamas views its political mission as the vanguard of the worldwide Islamic revolution led by its parent-movement, the Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas' rise to power has inspired Islamic movements all over the world and motivated them to emulate Hamas' approach (tactical participation in a democratic process) in order to win similar successes in their own countries, especially in Jordan.
The current leader of the international Muslim Brotherhood, Mahdi 'Akef, recently issued a new strategy calling on all its member organizations to serve its global agenda of defeating the West. He called on individual members of the Muslim Brotherhood worldwide to not only join the "resistance" to the U.S. financially, but also through active participation.
Hamas Interior Minister Said Sayyam, who is responsible for the Palestinian security forces, publicly committed himself on March 24, 2006, not to order arrests of operatives who carry out terror attacks. In light of al-Qaeda's growing interest since August 2005 in developing a presence in the West Bank and Gaza, Sayyam's declaration amounts to an open invitation to terrorists of all stripes to acquire a refuge and a convenient base for activity.
It should come as no surprise that the Palestinian Authority under Hamas rule is becoming a safe haven for Islamic terror organizations, first and foremost al-Qaeda. Al-Qaeda totally rejects any element of Western influence and sees terror as the most effective means to overthrow the infidel regimes, spread Islam, and establish Islamic rule. Hamas, however, is prepared to make a pretense of going along with Western democratic rules and thereby exploit them to remove the infidel regimes, propagate Islam, and install Islamic rule that will eliminate democracy. However, its ultimate long-term goals are no different from al-Qaeda's.
As recently as March 2006, high-level Hamas officials attended events in Pakistan and Yemen where members of the al-Qaeda network were present and in one case offered monetary support for the new Hamas government. Al-Hayat reported on April 4, 2006, "a definite presence" of al-Qaeda operatives in the Gaza Strip who had just infiltrated from several Arab countries.
Triumph of the Muslim Brotherhood
The establishment of the first Palestinian Islamic government constitutes the culmination of the "Green Revolution" that Hamas has led in recent years in the Palestinian Authority. After the elections in Afghanistan and Iraq under the tutelage of the United States, which seeks to spread democracy to the Muslim world, the Hamas movement, which is hostile to the United States, succeeded by democratic means to become a legitimate political force and take power in the Palestinian Authority. The parliamentary majority that Hamas obtained in the January 2006 elections (74 of 132 parliamentary seats) meant it had a majority to form a government without the necessity of a coalition with other parliamentary blocs.
This was the first time that the Muslim Brotherhood has used the electoral process successfully to take virtually exclusive control of an Arab regime in the very heart of the Arab world. (Previously, Hassan Turabi rose to power through the Muslim Brotherhood in Sudan.) In recent decades, the Muslim Brotherhood had sought to replace secular regimes in Egypt and Syria, but failed. Despite the surprise expressed in intelligence circles in Israel, the Middle East, and the West, there were clear indications that Hamas would take power by democratic means. Over the past year, the heads of Israeli intelligence pointed to clear and imminent signs that Hamas was gaining strength and becoming the dominant force in the Palestinian Authority.
In intelligence overviews presented to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, both the head of IDF Military Intelligence, General Aharon Farkash, and the head of the Israel Security Agency, Yuval Diskin, offered assessments that the fragmentation and the organizational and ideological crisis in Fatah were weakening Palestinian chairman Mahmud Abbas, who was not capable of advancing significant political and security reforms.
According to their assessments, Hamas was gaining political power in light of its substantial achievements in four rounds of local authority elections; and Hamas had a huge advantage over Fatah in light of its extensive organizational infrastructure, its public image as free of corruption, and the attribution of Israel's disengagement from Gaza to the victory of Hamas' armed struggle.[1]
Israeli intelligence circles view Hamas' rise as extremely significant, given that it is part of the worldwide Muslim Brotherhood movement, which works similarly in other countries (such as Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and Syria) to establish Islamic rule as the basis for reviving the caliphate. Indeed, Article Two of the 1988 Hamas Covenant describes the organization as "one of the way of the Muslim Brotherhood in Palestine." The current leader of the international Muslim Brotherhood, Mahdi 'Akef, admitted openly in an interview to Asharq Alawsat (December 11, 2005) that the Brotherhood is a global movement whose members everywhere share a basic, similar religious worldview (spreading Islam until it takes over the whole world).
In previous interviews, 'Akef has been fiercely anti-American, calling the U.S. "a Satan that abuses the religion." He spoke about his belief that the U.S. would be eliminated: "I expect America to collapse soon," asserting: "I have complete faith that Islam will invade Europe and America."[2] While sometimes U.S. observers view the Muslim Brotherhood (and even Hamas) as a more moderate alternative to al-Qaeda for Islamists, the Brotherhood has a history of actively supporting global jihadi efforts. Prior to the U.S.-led attack on the Taliban regime, the Muslim Brotherhood actually had training camps in Afghanistan where it worked with Kashmiri militants and sought to expand its influence in Central Asian states, especially Tajikistan.[3]
This commitment to militant activism continues and is being reinforced.In his December 2005 interview, 'Akef added: "The entire Muslim Brotherhood in the global arena acts according to a written platform[4] (in which jihad is the way to attain our ends)....We have the largest organization in the world. A (Muslim) person who is in the global arena and believes in the Muslim Brotherhood's path is considered part of us and we are part of him."[5] Not surprisingly, then, the Muslim Brotherhood did not portray Hamas' triumph as a local victory but rather as "a victory of the Islamic nation in its entirety."[6] From the Brotherhood's perspective, Hamas members are expected to serve its global agenda and not just their local interests alone. In a recent weekly missive 'Akef declared a new strategy adopted by the Brotherhood to confront Western imperialism and the satanic alliance between the U.S. and Israel based on supporting the "resistance" in any Muslim country under foreign occupation, including Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan. For the first time, 'Akef called upon the Brotherhood to grant not only financial and material support but to join the resistance to achieve freedom for the Muslim nation.[7]
The Hamas leadership as well shares this view of the overall struggle between the Islamist movement and the West. In August 2005, Mahmud al-Zahar, today the new Hamas foreign minister, expressed the hope that Hamas' victory against Israel, as expressed by the Gaza disengagement, would empower the mujahideen in Iraq and Afghanistan. More recently, Khaled Mashaal, who heads the Hamas political bureau abroad, declared in a Damascus mosque in early February 2006: "We say to this West, which does not act reasonable, and does not learn its lessons: by Allah, you will be defeated."[8] Mashaal added: "Tomorrow, our nation will sit on the throne of the world." In Sudan, he lashed out at the West for helping the Christian population of East Timor and for opposing Khartoum's operations against the population of Darfur, which the U.S. has categorized as genocide.[9] Thus, Hamas does not confine itself to the Palestinian issue alone. It truly sees itself as the vanguard of a global movement.
Yet, from Hamas' standpoint, the paramount strategic goal in the short term is to establish its new rule and attain Arab and international legitimacy for its existence based on the Islamic principles of the Hamas platform. Despite its overwhelming victory in the parliamentary elections, Hamas seeks to win international recognition by creating an image of political pragmatism and of readiness to join the international community as a constructive force.
The Limits of Hamas' Tactical Flexibility
As a first step in the direction of pragmatism, Hamas proclaimed after the January elections its great interest in setting up as broad a coalition as possible that would include the rival Fatah movement as a senior partner. In the coalition negotiations, which ultimately failed, Hamas showed readiness to make considerable concessions toward Fatah's position, but without deviating from its own basic principles. During the course of the coalition negotiations, the guidelines of the Hamas government headed by Ismail Haniyeh were changed three times, to the limits of Hamas' political flexibility, in an attempt to answer the demands of the international community. Hamas made use of certain themes in the political terminology of the Palestinian Authority and Fatah to present guidelines characterized by constructive ambiguity and vagueness. These included:
Clause 5 (Preamble) -- "Cooperation with the international community so as to bring about the removal of the occupation and the settlements and a full withdrawal from the territories occupied in '67 including Jerusalem." Hamas traditionally presented jihad as the most effective means of "the liberation of Palestine" and criticized the Palestinian Authority for pinning its hopes on the international community as the force that would coerce political concessions from Israel.
Clause 10 -- "The government will act according to the relevant international decisions, upholding national responsibility in ensuring the preservation of our (Palestinian) people's eternal rights." This vague formulation was meant to create an impression of implicit recognition of the resolutions of the United Nations and its institutions, even though Hamas still views Islam as the only source of authority for solving the problem of Palestine.
Clause 9 -- "The government will act according to the written agreements with supreme responsibility and in a way that preserves the supreme interests of our (Palestinian) people, safeguards its rights, and does not compromise its basic principles." In light of the international demand to recognize agreements that were signed with Israel, Hamas avoids using the language with which in the past it strongly rejected the agreements with the "Zionist entity." Moreover, Hamas does not exclude the possibility of having direct contacts on day-to-day issues with Israeli officials.[10]
Clause 5 (final section) -- After the Israeli withdrawal to the '67 borders, "the region will at this stage attain quiet and stability." Hamas conveys a message that it will be able to agree to a hudna, a mutual ceasefire limited in time, if Israel withdraws unconditionally to the borders of June 4, 1967.[11]
This seemingly pragmatic line meshes with the diplomatic and media offensive (aimed also at the American media) that Hamas has waged since the elections. Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal speaks of a readiness to achieve "real peace" and of implicit recognition of the Arab peace initiative that was approved at the Beirut summit in March 2002.
The new Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniyeh, has presented toned-down messages regarding the resolution of the conflict. In his words, Hamas "is not hostile to the Jews," adding that Hamas "is not interested in throwing them into the sea." Hamas did not want "blood(shed)," and "has no interest in a vicious cycle of violence."[12] In an interview with CBS News, Haniyeh stressed that he had never sent anyone to carry out a suicide bombing and that even if one of his sons were to ask his permission to perpetrate one, he would not consider granting it.[13] In an article for the British Guardian entitled "A Just Peace or No Peace," Haniyeh stated: "We in Hamas are for peace and want to put an end to bloodshed...and offer our hands in peace" based on complete withdrawal from the territories and Israeli absorption of millions of Palestinians into Israel.[14]
Hamas' Uncompromising Strategic Goals
Clearly, neither the formulation of the Hamas government's guidelines nor its diplomatic charm offensive indicat
Jonathan Halevi