Afghanistan Just before the Elections
Paul | 15.09.2005 12:54 | Oxford
All UN staff that have not left the country will be restricted to their accommodation for the next three days. I believe it will be relatively peaceful but then Afghanistan is always unpredictable. The Election complaints commission has had demos outside and threats on a daily basis
Afghanistan 3 Days before the Election
5,800 candidates for 249 parliamentary seats and 420 provincial council seats. There are about 400 candidates for Kabul alone. How long does it take to look through 400 candidates even if one has decided who to vote for prior to entering the polling station? At least 6 candidates have been killed but this does not help much. About 45 have been disqualified for being part of an armed group but none of these are too big or it would have been too dangerous to disqualify them. The biggest killers are in the cabinet anyway.
One regulation is that if a candidate dies then the one who came second will take the post and so on. Should not take commanders who are candidates long to work that one out.
48 of the not too big commanders have been struck of the list. A lot more (over 200) should have been struck off if it was not for resistance from the ministry of interior and ministry of defense. Many were considered too dangerous to be struck off. Deals have been made with them. However, those that have been struck off are demonstration on a daily basis outside the Joint Election Management Board office. There has been no violence yet but plenty of threats. Khazai through the Supreme Court is trying to get candidates reinstated.
Women candidates have received death threats and the men are worried. Some say it is not Islamic and others point to the hypocrisy of the west and the lack of women in the US senate.
This year, even considering the better record keeping, has seen a significant increase in violence. 48 US troops and 1,000 Afghans have died this year plus the odd international. Kabul is fairly peaceful but the south and east is bad. Some districts are likely to have no chance to vote due to security. A few days ago the defense ministers car was shot but later it was announced that it was not an assassination attempt but an accident when two groups of the national army was firing on each other. So it was ok it was just the army shooting at each other.
The real problems are likely to come when the results are announced in early November and then the challenges period starts for 10 days. Those who lost are likely to cause trouble and of course if a candidate dies the next moved into their place.
Then when the parliament is formed it will consist of independents not political parties and is likely to be weak and paralyzed. There will be a lot of horse trading and paying people off. The provincial councils will have no teeth. Their job is vague and mostly advisory. They will be paid by the governors so are not going to be too independent. The district council election elections were supposed to happen on 18th also. They will not happen as the control of districts is too controversial and the boundaries are not clear and disputed. In the future they will not happen as there will be no money or political will from abroad. As a third of the upper house would have been chosen by the district councils.
5,800 candidates for 249 parliamentary seats and 420 provincial council seats. There are about 400 candidates for Kabul alone. How long does it take to look through 400 candidates even if one has decided who to vote for prior to entering the polling station? At least 6 candidates have been killed but this does not help much. About 45 have been disqualified for being part of an armed group but none of these are too big or it would have been too dangerous to disqualify them. The biggest killers are in the cabinet anyway.
One regulation is that if a candidate dies then the one who came second will take the post and so on. Should not take commanders who are candidates long to work that one out.
48 of the not too big commanders have been struck of the list. A lot more (over 200) should have been struck off if it was not for resistance from the ministry of interior and ministry of defense. Many were considered too dangerous to be struck off. Deals have been made with them. However, those that have been struck off are demonstration on a daily basis outside the Joint Election Management Board office. There has been no violence yet but plenty of threats. Khazai through the Supreme Court is trying to get candidates reinstated.
Women candidates have received death threats and the men are worried. Some say it is not Islamic and others point to the hypocrisy of the west and the lack of women in the US senate.
This year, even considering the better record keeping, has seen a significant increase in violence. 48 US troops and 1,000 Afghans have died this year plus the odd international. Kabul is fairly peaceful but the south and east is bad. Some districts are likely to have no chance to vote due to security. A few days ago the defense ministers car was shot but later it was announced that it was not an assassination attempt but an accident when two groups of the national army was firing on each other. So it was ok it was just the army shooting at each other.
The real problems are likely to come when the results are announced in early November and then the challenges period starts for 10 days. Those who lost are likely to cause trouble and of course if a candidate dies the next moved into their place.
Then when the parliament is formed it will consist of independents not political parties and is likely to be weak and paralyzed. There will be a lot of horse trading and paying people off. The provincial councils will have no teeth. Their job is vague and mostly advisory. They will be paid by the governors so are not going to be too independent. The district council election elections were supposed to happen on 18th also. They will not happen as the control of districts is too controversial and the boundaries are not clear and disputed. In the future they will not happen as there will be no money or political will from abroad. As a third of the upper house would have been chosen by the district councils.
Paul
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