Bush administration's foreign policy envisioned: analysis
The Don | 24.01.2005 17:51 | London | World
George W. Bush's second administration started operation along with the inauguration on January 20. As widely held by US scholars and media, the general orientation of the administration's foreign policy will remain basically unchanged and will keep its continuity.
Despite major cabinet reshuffle, the members in control of foreign policies are still those in the original circle and are more identical in their stands. Condoleezza Rice in charge of the State Department actually represents an advance in directing foreign policy from the back stage to the front stage; Rumsfeld continues to take charge of the Pentagon and adjustment of overseas military and global strategies will be carried on, so there will be better diplomatic and military cooperation than the first-term administration. With Bush's experiences accumulated over the past four years in handling foreign affairs, plus his team's use of one voice in tackling problems concerning its external relations, the new administration will act as what it wishes.
Its foreign policies will remain unchanged in the following major aspects:
First, the global strategy of seeking hegemony and maintaining the US status as the sole superpower in the world will not change. In this respect, the United States focuses on preventing the emergence of any new global or regional "hegemonic power", allowing no challenge or threat to US status, and establishing a US-dominated new international order.
Second, its continued "anti-terrorist" strategic focus will not change. In order to push this strategy forward, the new administration, while continuing to mobilize other countries to participate in the "counter-terror" war, will pay more attention to controlling the spread of weapons of massive destruction (WMD).
Third, it will continue to promote its "democracy" and "freedom" worldwide.
Fourth, its unilateralist and preemptive strategies will remain unchanged. Bush will adjust his diplomatic means and ways in his second term of office, including efforts to repair US-European relations, but the Bush administration will, as usual, stick to its unilateralist and preemptive foreign policy on the excuse of the "supremacy of national interest".
Under this general strategy, the pressing task of the moment for the Bush administration to handle foreign affairs in the near future is to set about to solve the following problems.
First is the reconstruction of Iraq. On this issue, the primary consideration taken by the Bush administration is to get the general elections to start in Iraq as scheduled, the administration regards the general elections as symbolizing realization of democracy in Iraq and a major progress achieved in postwar reconstruction of the country. The US government hopes that "Iraqis governing Iraq" will be realized through the elections so as to lift America out of the predicament as soon as possible. At the same time, if Iraqi troops are still unable to control the situation, the US forces will justifiably stay in Iraq "at the invitation of the Iraqi government" and thus changing its status as "invader" The Bush administration devised the chess game in an explicit and orderly way, however, the administration still finds it hard to move a step forward.
First, the increasingly violent attacks launched by the Iraqi resistance forces have posed severe challenges to the elections.
Resistance put up by Sunnis also cast doubts about the legitimacy of the elections. Sunni Muslims will likely be totally excluded from the new National Assembly.
Iraqi elections will also be unhelpful to changing the current chaotic situation in Iraq. Presently, there are as many as 200, 000 anti-US militants in Iraq, outnumbering US troops stationed there. The result of the election will surely be the Shiites winning major victory, failure of the Sunnis in the election will fuel their anti-US and anti-government sentiments, this will possibly further worsen Iraq's security situation.
Second, the US will continue its leading role in promoting the Mid-east peace process.
During Bush's first term, the "Roadmap" program for Mid-east peace seldom made progress. Due to its obvious bias toward Israel, the US is following an ever-narrower road. After Mahmoud Abbas was elected leader of Palestine, the US immediately expressed hope for cooperation with Abbas. But this does not mean any change in the Mid-east policy.
Judith Kipper, director of the Middle East Forum at the American Academy of Diplomacy, said in an interview with People's Daily correspondent that the US only took Abbas' win in the election as a chance for communication because the US knows him well. But its Middle East Policy is not changed and the important thing is to see whether Abbas can bring Palestine's internal situation under control. Ms. Kipper held that the problem of peace between Palestine and Israel cannot be resolved by relying only on, or through consultations, between them, only the US can solve the problem. Currently, both sides have their respective troubles: Abbas has little room for maneuver due to opposition from the radicals; the new Israeli government's fragility is limiting the Sharon administration's ability to push forward the peace process Things won't go easy with the US as the leading character.
Third, both tough and soft policies will be adopted on the Iran and Korean nuclear issue.
Preventing nuclear proliferation and bio-chemical weapon attacks is a matter of paramount importance in the US anti-terror efforts. Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) are regarded by the United States as countries that pose the "biggest threats" to it. In order to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons, the US will not give up the adoption of tough measures.
Fourth, seek more world support in anti-terror and other international issues.
To this end, the Bush administration will strive to ease and remedy its relations with "old Europe", especially with France and Germany. Concerning certain issues, it will also try to win support and cooperation from other major countries on certain international issues. Bush will fist visit Europe after his inauguration, which shows that US-Europe relationship will be one of his diplomatic focuses. In repairing and improving its relations with Europe, the US will wear a smiling face, but in actuality, it still takes the defense of its own interests as the primary condition..
Fifth, continue to keep the stability of US-China relations.
Prof. Harry Harding, a famous expert on China and dean of Elliott School of International Affairs of George Washington University, said during an interview with People's Daily that there will not be major change in Bush's policy toward China during his second term because after the "9.11" event, the US had made adjustment in this regard. In the past four years, the top leaders of the two countries have kept frequent contacts and exchanges; the two sides have conducted close cooperation in anti-terror and Korean Peninsula nuclear issues. Bilateral trade volume is also on the rise. The two countries will continue their exchange and cooperation in these fields. But Harding added, there are some uncertainties in US-China relations, for example, some Americans are worried about China's gradual growth into an economic power and its increasingly important influence in its own region, and they even take China as a threat or a rival; some people link US deficit of trade with China and the value of the Renminbi with US unemployment rate. Harding held that these potential problems could be solved only when the two sides enhance communication and mutual understanding. On the whole, US-China relations will continue to develop in the direction toward cooperation and sustained stability.
At a hearing on the Senate's approval of her nomination as Secretary of State on January 18, Condoleezza Rice said that she would try to maintain US good relations with China after taking the post and, at the same time, correct the serious US-China trade imbalance. Rice pointed out that the US is establishing with China a sincere, cooperative and constructive relationship. The Bush administration will continue to strengthen cooperation with China. She also commended China's active role in organizing the six-party talks concerning the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200501/24/eng20050124_171685.html
Despite major cabinet reshuffle, the members in control of foreign policies are still those in the original circle and are more identical in their stands. Condoleezza Rice in charge of the State Department actually represents an advance in directing foreign policy from the back stage to the front stage; Rumsfeld continues to take charge of the Pentagon and adjustment of overseas military and global strategies will be carried on, so there will be better diplomatic and military cooperation than the first-term administration. With Bush's experiences accumulated over the past four years in handling foreign affairs, plus his team's use of one voice in tackling problems concerning its external relations, the new administration will act as what it wishes.
Its foreign policies will remain unchanged in the following major aspects:
First, the global strategy of seeking hegemony and maintaining the US status as the sole superpower in the world will not change. In this respect, the United States focuses on preventing the emergence of any new global or regional "hegemonic power", allowing no challenge or threat to US status, and establishing a US-dominated new international order.
Second, its continued "anti-terrorist" strategic focus will not change. In order to push this strategy forward, the new administration, while continuing to mobilize other countries to participate in the "counter-terror" war, will pay more attention to controlling the spread of weapons of massive destruction (WMD).
Third, it will continue to promote its "democracy" and "freedom" worldwide.
Fourth, its unilateralist and preemptive strategies will remain unchanged. Bush will adjust his diplomatic means and ways in his second term of office, including efforts to repair US-European relations, but the Bush administration will, as usual, stick to its unilateralist and preemptive foreign policy on the excuse of the "supremacy of national interest".
Under this general strategy, the pressing task of the moment for the Bush administration to handle foreign affairs in the near future is to set about to solve the following problems.
First is the reconstruction of Iraq. On this issue, the primary consideration taken by the Bush administration is to get the general elections to start in Iraq as scheduled, the administration regards the general elections as symbolizing realization of democracy in Iraq and a major progress achieved in postwar reconstruction of the country. The US government hopes that "Iraqis governing Iraq" will be realized through the elections so as to lift America out of the predicament as soon as possible. At the same time, if Iraqi troops are still unable to control the situation, the US forces will justifiably stay in Iraq "at the invitation of the Iraqi government" and thus changing its status as "invader" The Bush administration devised the chess game in an explicit and orderly way, however, the administration still finds it hard to move a step forward.
First, the increasingly violent attacks launched by the Iraqi resistance forces have posed severe challenges to the elections.
Resistance put up by Sunnis also cast doubts about the legitimacy of the elections. Sunni Muslims will likely be totally excluded from the new National Assembly.
Iraqi elections will also be unhelpful to changing the current chaotic situation in Iraq. Presently, there are as many as 200, 000 anti-US militants in Iraq, outnumbering US troops stationed there. The result of the election will surely be the Shiites winning major victory, failure of the Sunnis in the election will fuel their anti-US and anti-government sentiments, this will possibly further worsen Iraq's security situation.
Second, the US will continue its leading role in promoting the Mid-east peace process.
During Bush's first term, the "Roadmap" program for Mid-east peace seldom made progress. Due to its obvious bias toward Israel, the US is following an ever-narrower road. After Mahmoud Abbas was elected leader of Palestine, the US immediately expressed hope for cooperation with Abbas. But this does not mean any change in the Mid-east policy.
Judith Kipper, director of the Middle East Forum at the American Academy of Diplomacy, said in an interview with People's Daily correspondent that the US only took Abbas' win in the election as a chance for communication because the US knows him well. But its Middle East Policy is not changed and the important thing is to see whether Abbas can bring Palestine's internal situation under control. Ms. Kipper held that the problem of peace between Palestine and Israel cannot be resolved by relying only on, or through consultations, between them, only the US can solve the problem. Currently, both sides have their respective troubles: Abbas has little room for maneuver due to opposition from the radicals; the new Israeli government's fragility is limiting the Sharon administration's ability to push forward the peace process Things won't go easy with the US as the leading character.
Third, both tough and soft policies will be adopted on the Iran and Korean nuclear issue.
Preventing nuclear proliferation and bio-chemical weapon attacks is a matter of paramount importance in the US anti-terror efforts. Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) are regarded by the United States as countries that pose the "biggest threats" to it. In order to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons, the US will not give up the adoption of tough measures.
Fourth, seek more world support in anti-terror and other international issues.
To this end, the Bush administration will strive to ease and remedy its relations with "old Europe", especially with France and Germany. Concerning certain issues, it will also try to win support and cooperation from other major countries on certain international issues. Bush will fist visit Europe after his inauguration, which shows that US-Europe relationship will be one of his diplomatic focuses. In repairing and improving its relations with Europe, the US will wear a smiling face, but in actuality, it still takes the defense of its own interests as the primary condition..
Fifth, continue to keep the stability of US-China relations.
Prof. Harry Harding, a famous expert on China and dean of Elliott School of International Affairs of George Washington University, said during an interview with People's Daily that there will not be major change in Bush's policy toward China during his second term because after the "9.11" event, the US had made adjustment in this regard. In the past four years, the top leaders of the two countries have kept frequent contacts and exchanges; the two sides have conducted close cooperation in anti-terror and Korean Peninsula nuclear issues. Bilateral trade volume is also on the rise. The two countries will continue their exchange and cooperation in these fields. But Harding added, there are some uncertainties in US-China relations, for example, some Americans are worried about China's gradual growth into an economic power and its increasingly important influence in its own region, and they even take China as a threat or a rival; some people link US deficit of trade with China and the value of the Renminbi with US unemployment rate. Harding held that these potential problems could be solved only when the two sides enhance communication and mutual understanding. On the whole, US-China relations will continue to develop in the direction toward cooperation and sustained stability.
At a hearing on the Senate's approval of her nomination as Secretary of State on January 18, Condoleezza Rice said that she would try to maintain US good relations with China after taking the post and, at the same time, correct the serious US-China trade imbalance. Rice pointed out that the US is establishing with China a sincere, cooperative and constructive relationship. The Bush administration will continue to strengthen cooperation with China. She also commended China's active role in organizing the six-party talks concerning the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200501/24/eng20050124_171685.html
The Don