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Tory party now as unpopular as in days of Iain Duncan Smith :-) :-) :-)

pasted from www.guardian.co.uk | 18.11.2004 22:52

Tories back to days of Duncan Smith - poll

Alan Travis, home affairs editor
Thursday November 18, 2004
The Guardian

Michael Howard's Tory party is now as unpopular as it was in the darkest days of Iain Duncan Smith's leadership, according to the results of a special Guardian/ICM poll on Conservative fortunes.

The party is eight points behind Labour - the biggest gap since May 2003, when Mr Duncan Smith was facing his summer of discontent.

Mr Howard has achieved the distinction of becoming even more unpopular than Tony Blair in the country at large - and even less popular among Tory voters than the prime minister is among Labour supporters.

Yet the survey also shows that Mr Howard is set to soldier on as leader until another general election because two-thirds of his party members cannot name a credible alternative.

The depth of the crisis facing the party is underlined by a raft of findings in the Guardian/ICM poll based on interviews with a representative sample of 300 Conservative party members. The poll shows that:

· Most members accept they cannot win next year's expected general election;

· One in four of the members think Labour is more in tune with average voters in the country than the Tories;

· Half the rank and file say they would vote to pull out of the European Union and, even more worringly for Mr Howard, 70% say that the party must toughen its stance on Brussels or risk losing "members like them" to the UK Independence party;

· Despite anxieties about Mr Howard's stewardship, two-thirds of the members have no idea of an alternative candidate to lead the party.

The regular monthly Guardian/ICM poll of the wider electorate shows Labour on 38%, eight points ahead of the Conservatives, the biggest gap on the Guardian/ICM series since May 2003. It would be enough to see Mr Blair returned with a Commons majority of more than 120.

The monthly ICM poll also shows that Mr Howard's popularity has continued to slide and only 33% of the country think he is doing a good job compared with 41% who rate Mr Blair's performance as satisfactory.

Even among his own supporters his ratings are not as good as the prime minister's, with 30% of Tory voters dissatisfied with the job he is doing, compared with 17% of Labour voters.

The party doesn't believe it can win the next election with a clear majority, believing it will be at least two more contests before they return to power.

Nevertheless, nearly two-thirds of the party - 58% - believe Mr Howard should be given the chance to fight a second general election.

Only 11% think he should stand down now, although 28% of Tory members think he should go immediately after next year's expected general election.

The reason is clear enough when ICM asked party members if not Howard then who? A remarkable 66% said they did not know who to name as an alternative leader. William Hague was the single most popular named alternative and he is backed by only 9%. David Davis and Oliver Letwin attracted the support of 5% or fewer.

ICM interviewed a random sample of 1,009 adults aged 18 and over between November 12-14. Interviews were conducted throughout the country by telephone and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. ICM also interviewed a random sample of 300 Conservative party members by telephone between November 8-14. ICM abides by the rules of the British Polling Council.

pasted from www.guardian.co.uk

Comments

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Not that I'm usually into politricks at all....

19.11.2004 10:22

...but the situation is interesting now. Has Blair behaved so badly over Iraq, that he should be punished by a Tory victory at any cost at the next election?

I personnally think so, 'decriminalisation' (clever little bastards) of Cannabis or otherwise. (etc). He's obviously a closet racist...displayed by his attitude towards refugees. (get theses people out at any cost type thing in private, in public -the 'innocent boy'). Maybe though this racism is just a function of being the head of blightyworld...which is inherently a racist entity.

Allah Akbar,

King Amdo.

King Amdo


Who needs Howrad whan we have Blair ? :) :) :)

19.11.2004 13:31

"new labor" = old con.

Con.