Afghanistan: Nothing looks good

Sorry I have not sent any news on Afghanistan for a while. This is due to going on leave to Prague for my brother’s wedding and the pressure of work in the aid business. It was difficult coming back from the freedom to 4 metre walls, blast film, armed guards, curfews and a deteriorating security situation.

A glance at some of the attached articles will give you some idea of recent events and the current situation. www.mobycapital.com is probably the best source of news on Afghanistan.

Karzai is still talking about September elections. He does not seem to have read the election law he has signed which make the absolute earliest 5th October 2004. Due to logistics, deteriating security and lack of funding it is unlikely they will happen this year in time to support Bush’s re-election. If it does it will be a sham. They have reduced the estimated voting population from 10.5 m to 9.5m but still only 30% have registered to vote and they are from the easier regions. Many Pashtuns, 43% of the population, see Karzai as a token Pashtun in a government run by Tajiks (the second largest ethnic group) and controlled by America. After the ousting of the Taliban America lost a great opportunity. They could have pumped aid into Pashtun areas and built up support rather than concentrating on Bin Ladin. Now most Pashtuns do not see themselves as part of the process and many are resisting political developments. The elections will cost $100m and $70m has been promised but not given. People working for the UN in elections either believe that the elections won’t happen or if they do they will be a catalyst for lots of violence.

Security is deteriating. Most incidents are blamed on the Taliban but local commanders extorting protection money, protecting poppy fields and trying to maintain their power bases are also responsible. Attacks have increased especially on soft targets. Four MSF (medical NGO) were killed recently and those involved in the election process have come under more frequent attack. When I was on leave my team were narrowly missed by a rocket or an American skipping bomb, ‘sometimes they can be inaccurate’ we were told. I am going on a trip tomorrow and have just been told I have to take a trauma kit, body armor and helmets. This is to a province which until now was safe. We also have to take an armed escort. We recently acquired four armored cars for visits to some provinces. Already in Afghanistan aid and military is confused in people’s minds. There are Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) which consist of civilians and mostly military who are involved in reconstruction. The American government is quite happy to drop aid from the same planes that dropped bombs in the same areas.

I am administering various grants for International Organisation for Migration (IOM). One of them is specifically for places that have been accidentally bombed by the Americans. So if they get accidentally bombed they may get a new irrigation system or a school. America sees aid as a foreign policy tool. I am a little dubious about my role in this which I see as writing bullshit to get as much USAID money out to the neediest areas as fast as possible. Often all communities in remote areas want is potable water. They do not care where it comes from and I certainly do not encourage them to be grateful. I am also trying to push through women’s income generation and education projects such as poultry farming, basic health and literacy. Am I supporting the American government? You tell me.

On a lighter note I recently went to a wedding and visited a park with kids (boys) playing in a swimming pool. Life continues.

While many war weary Afghans are very optimistic about the elections and political and economic future of the country most foreigners are pessimistic predicting that America, as recently, will put a lot of positive spin on Afghanistan and then let it slide further into violence and chaos.