I have been asked to contribute this article by my daughter who is a regular reader of Indy Media. She asked this because until recently I was employed as a Special Advisor to three Charities all of whom are involved in Iraq.

The first point is that one must not think of Iraq as one country in the way one would with say, France or Portugal. Iraq is five provinces that grew up out of the Colonial occupation and were pulled together as one working country under the B'ath Party. A better comparison would be post WWII Yugoslavia where the force of Tito and the Communist Party held the country together under a regime of mutual fear.

The Recent Past
We can safely presume that all but the most extreme elements of Iraqi society are pleased to see the B'ath Party and Saddam removed from power. His was a brutal regime where at least 150,000 opposition members were believed to have been killed during his period of power. The UN ordered sanctions had a devastating effect on the Iraqi population almost entirely because the goods purchased under the food for oil programe never made it to the wider population. Distribution was handled by the four companies controlled by Uday Hussain and he sold most of it to Jordan and also to a lesser extent Pakistan. Sanctions are a blunt weapon and as we saw in the case of South Africa difficult to judge as to their effectivness. There is a certain irony that those most aggressive in their calling for the end of Iraqi sanctions were also the same organisations calling for the imposition and extention in South Africa.

The Last Twelve Months
For those in rural areas there have been three key changes in circumstances:
i) Water - long the most important element in Iraqi power, water is now plentiful and clean with a comeserate reduction in water bourne illness. In the area around Basra for example the UK troops are almost universaly popular simply because they ensure near 24 hour / 7 day water supply.

ii) Electrical Power - again the majority of Iraq now sees near continuous supply largley as a result of the work done by the US company Halliburton which has converted its (generous) DoD contracts into real benefits for the people.

iii) Food - food distribution is now excellent throughout Iraq with the old common shortages now eliminated.

With all three of these elements there are of course exceptionsand small pockets of problems do remain.

Religious Infighting
More than anything else the power struggles between the assorted Mullahs and Tribal leaders represents the biggest threat to the prosperity and safety of the Iraqi people.

Muqtada al-Sadr and Sheikh Abd Satar Jinabi each have the support of no more than three of four hundred supporters but their rallies and meetings are getting extensive media covergae because film of a soldier fixing a gas pipe does not make for exciting news.

In the village of Adamiyeh and example of how these radical clerics is distoring facts came to light. A gunman at a funeral procession began firing an AK-47 into the air. He switched the rifle to automatic, and as he fired he lost control of the weapon. Three mourners lay dead. Sheikh Abd Satar Jinabi claimed these deaths were the result of an assault by US troops. A report carried by the BBC, ITN and various Arab news organisations.

IRan
The direct Iranian presence in the Shiite areas of Iraq in the political, security, and economic affairs can not be ignored anymore. This presence is accompanied by a vigorous Iranian effort to create bridges with different forces in Iraq; first, by material and logistic aid to parties other than the Shi'a, and secondly through the traditional Iranian influence in the religious seminaries [hawza] and in the Marja'iya [religious Shi'a authorities] institutions.

Last April, an Iranian cleric, Kadhem al-Husseini al-Haeri, issued a religious edict distributed to Shiite mullahs in Iraq, calling on them "to seize the first possible opportunity to fill the power vacuum in the administration of Iraqi cities."

The edict, or fatwa, issued April 8, 2003, showed that Shiite clerics in Iraq are receiving significant direction from Iran. The edict said Shiite leaders have to "seize as many positions as possible to impose a fait accompli for any coming government."

Also last April Iran had armed and trained some 40,000 Shiite Iraqi fighters most former prisoners of war captured during the Iran-Iraq war and sent them to Iraq to foment an Islamic revolution.

Reports reaching me this week from friends in Al-Hayat indicate that the Iranians recently have managed to activate a known Marja', a Shi'a cleric regarded as a religious authority, Kazem Al-Ha'iri.

The cleric lives in Iran's holy city of Qum and is known to be close to Al-Sadr's movement.

In closing trust little of what you see or read about Iraq. Most news organisations have an agenda and reporters know little of the majority of Iraq as they have standing instructions to provide "good pictures". This means theystick close to the big towns and are tipped off in advance about so called "demonstrations".

For those seeking more detailed information about Iraq please post your e-mail address onto IndyMedia and I will be happy to respond.