Back during the Clinton administration I noticed the deterioration of America's forests. I was told, 'oh this things come and go." Some time went by. I noticed the same pattern. I was told, 'oh its just El Nino. Once that thing is gone everything will be fine." Some time went by. I was then told 'now its El Nina. Give it some time." Well now some more time has gone by, and its coming up to the close of the Bush administration, there's no El Nino, no El Nina, no Clinton, and suddenly trees are at the top of the National Agenda.


That took a hell of a long time.

You know back in those earlier days I used to pester the Clinton White House with my 'bald eagle' apocalyptic metaphor, and I was brooding about that 'El Nino' crap last night, and I couldn't help thinking about how appropriate that 'Bald Eagle' speech still seems today, after all these years have gone by, and so I reproduce the speech as I recall it ...

I used to refer to America the humiliated, standing in front of the whole world, with their rocky mountains burned as bald as an eagle. Well how embarrassing it would be for that bald headed eagle, with its featherless head burned bald, and its rocky mountains resembling those scorched mountains out in the Sahara, while billows of smoke roll down over California, and roll down over the plains. Why even bother trying to fight the fires in that inferno, I used to say. Just stand back and watch it burn, watch it burn. The sun will be turned to darkness in broad daylight, and the moon will glow blood red, and there will blood, and fire, and a pillar of smoke from that great burnt offering in the mountains...

As I said, it was an apocalyptic poem, and for what its worth, the above is how I remember that thing going...of course, what with that 'just being natural' and then El Nino, and then El Nina, well everyone thought I was nuts.

One thing I have been thinking about lately is just how bloody inaccurate those climate predicting computers really are, because you know, they give everyone a false sense of security, what with the way they are programmed so damned conservatively those things (don't want to ridicule climate science so they program conservatively). The end result is that computer comes back after processing for weeks or even months to report that you have until the year 2050 or 2100, and here it turns out that if those were programmed right they would return the answer that you are already fucked since global warming has been going on for years...but isn't that just the way things work...just thought I would remind people that those forests have been going down the crapper for a long, long time, and now, when you look down from space you can see that very noticeable developing scab on the continent, about what you'd expect after all the hell those trees have been through over the last decade or so...


it seems that the climate change will be called natural, based on some feedback I have been getting

we have come full circle, then, and are back at the business about 'natural' climate change
that was what I was first told about those forests...that was just a 'natural cycle' then it was el nino then that la nina
I was wondering what next, and I am waiting to see what it will be, but perhaps the above post is an indication of what to expect

its just natural

now I thought I would mention that 'natural climate change' (and there is such a thing) is tied to
can you guess
the carbon cycle
CO2

for example, the oceans sink a tiny percentage of carbon dioxide every year
most of the co2 on earth is trapped in sedimentary rocks at the bottom of the ocean (as well as those which are currenly at the surface and weathering and releasing co2 due to heaving of the earth over time and weathering effects)
now when the ocean sinks to much co2 you get an ice age
that's natural
the ocean surface freezes over and the ocean loses its ability to sink co2
then as time goes by, co2 builds in the atmosphere
the ocean surface melts
the ice age ends
and the process starts again
so the critical factor in what is known as natural climate change is

CARBON DIOXIDE

just in case any one is following the argument here, that happens to be the gas we are pumping into the air at a high rate of speed, much faster than the ocean can sink co2, so rather than an ice age we can expect global warming

and keep in mind that the co2 cycle is SLOW. it operates over epochs, not in ten twenty or thirty years

now let's examine the pattern here
we have record breaking tornadoes in America this summer
the American forests are now suddenly a top item on the agenda, right up there with the Iraq war, for obvious reasons
the deserts of china are getting flooded
India missed last years monsoon
the sahara is in retreat
Europe was the Sahara this summer

can anyone think of any other climatic variations to add to the list

so then if the current trends continue this is what climate change means
the Sahara, which was an Eden 6,000 years ago, when there was more co2 (remember the ocean was sinking co2 all the time) goes back to what it was 6,000 years ago when there was more co2, which means that it is lush
furthermore, the Sahara does not take centuries to go back to what it was, it does it at top speed, and the explanation is CO2, and a hell of a lot of co2 as well, you know to speed up a process that would normally take centuries, and is now taking place rapidly (because the co2 cycle is very sensitive to changes)
now perhaps europe becomes a sahara, certainly it will be hotter than hell in europe during the summer
america becomes at least 50 desert, in otherwords, the sahara crosses the ocean and lands where America's forests used to be
the deserts of china bloom
hopefully India won't start missing monsoons on a regular basis, because they count on those

it will be very interesting to watch this extremely rapid climate change while people try to go full circle and talk about 'natural climate change' when, in fact, natural climate change is based entirely on the co2 cycle

judged by what is happening on the sahara, the amount of co2 pumped into the atmosphere at the present time is enough to turn back the clock 6,000 years (at least) and that being the case, there is no way that is natural, but is the human effect