Jobs warning over war with Iraq
Nov 7 2002

By Lesley Richardson 

War with Saddam Hussein would cost Britain 230,000 jobs - including 8,000 in Wales - as companies cut costs and slash investment, a survey said today.

A short, sharp conflict in Iraq would cause reduced output growth leading to lay-offs across manufacturing and private service industries in the first quarter of the next year, the report by research group Experian Business Strategies said.

It claimed the job losses would be a mixture of redundancies and deferred new positions.

Dr Neil Blake, research director at Experian, said the price of oil could rocket to nearly 40 US dollars (£25) a barrel, from 25 US dollars (£16), leading to higher costs for trade and industry and further eroding company profitability.
"Consumers would cut back on spending and firms would scale back their investment plans," he said.

London would be the worst affected by war with Iraq, suffering the biggest job losses in the UK. In the capital 47,000 jobs would go against a non-war scenario of 10,000 jobs created.

* The South East would see the second highest job cuts at 31,000 in a conflict-scenario compared with a growth rate slower than the national average in the absence of conflict.

* War with Iraq would cost the North West 24,000 jobs but even without war the region was still facing an estimated 18,000 job cuts putting it at the bottom of regional performance rankings.

* The East of England would be hit by 21,000 job cuts in the face of war but was set to maintain its position as one of the UK's fastest growing regions in a non-war scenario.

* War would cost the West Midlands 20,000 jobs but even without war the region would still be down by the equivalent of 8,000 full-time jobs.

* The South West would see 19,000 jobs lost as a result of conflict whereas in a non-conflict situation employment would be down by 6,000 jobs.

* Scotland faced losing 17,000 in the case of an attack on Iraq. Even without war the region faced losing 13,000 jobs despite predictions of an upturn in manufacturing set to outstrip the UK's growth.

* Yorkshire and the Humber faced losing 17,000 jobs in the event of conflict with Iraq which equated to 2,000 more job cuts than in a non-war scenario of 15,000 jobs.

* War would cost the East Midlands 16,000 jobs which would cast a shadow across the region's employment growth record this year of 17,000 jobs making it the UK's fastest growing region.

* Wales would lose 8,000 jobs if Britain went to war with Iraq but even without war forecasts remained weak for the region. The equivalent of 5,000 jobs will have been lost this year with a further 4,000 jobs lost over the next two years.

* The North East was the second least affected by war with Iraq with 7,000 job cuts caused by the conflict. Even without war employment was set to fall by the equivalent of 10,000 jobs.

* Conflict with Iraq would have the least impact on jobs in Northern Ireland with the region facing cuts of 5,000 jobs in the event of conflict. In a non-war scenario the economy was set to bounce back with growth near the national average.