An overview of UK migration
MigrationWatch | 03.07.2002 00:16
Introduction
1. Recent developments in Europe have drawn attention to the question of immigration in Britain. This recent focus has been on asylum seekers but this addresses only one aspect of a complex problem. To get a fuller picture it is necessary to consider asylum seekers, family settlement, labour migration and illegal immigration together. This paper, therefore, provides an overview of the main issues. Numbered footnotes indicate the sources.
Recent History
2. Until the 1950s there had been no major immigration into Britain, other than from Ireland, since the Norman invasion nearly 1000 years ago. About 100,000 Huguenots arrived from France in the 17th century and a similar number of Jews in the late 19th century. Approximately 70,000 refugees from Nazi Germany were admitted in the 1930s. New Commonwealth immigration began in the 1950s. In the 1960s acceptances for settlement were at the rate of about 75,000 a year. Racial tension led to successively tighter restrictions on immigration. By 1971 it was believed that primary immigration had been brought to an end. There has since been little public discussion of the subject. However, in practice, there was only a modest reduction in Commonwealth immigration. The average number of New Commonwealth acceptances for settlement in the 1970s was 72,000 per year, in the 1980s and early 1990s it was about 54,000 per year. Since 1996 that figure has more than doubled to 125,500 in 2000. The total since 1963 is nearly 2.5 million (some of whom, of course, will no longer be living in Britain). The ethnic minority population (largely New Commonwealth immigrants and their descendants) now accounts for 4 million (7%) of the population of England and Wales.
Asylum seekers
What is happening to the numbers?
3. The number of applications has more than doubled in the past four years from 30,000 in 1996 to 76,000 in the year to June 2000 [1]. If accompanying dependants are added that year's total was about 100,000 [2]. There was 72,000 applications in 2001. The final figure will be higher since those granted asylum can subsequently bring in non-accompanying dependants. In due course, their children can bring in spouses so new and continuing sources of immigration are being generated.
What about those who are refused?
4. In the period 1989-99 nearly 63% of the 356,200 applicants and dependants were refused permission to stay [3] but only about a quarter of those refused are believed to have left the country [4]. Thus 84% of the total stayed on. In the year 2000 the proportion of refusals was higher (78% of 110,000 decisions) [5] but, again, most applicants are believed to have stayed on. In the year 2000 the government initiated action to deport 51,000 asylum seekers but only removed 9,000 [6]. The government's "target" for removals in 2001 is 12,000 and 30,000 in 2002 [7]; this second target appears to be unrealistic. It is, in any case, only just over a third of those believed to stay
on illegally.
What is the cost?
5. The cost of asylum seekers in 2000 was estimated by the Home Office at £1,235 million [8]. It was made up as follows;
Payments to Local Authorities
for accommodation and subsistence 575m
Processing asylum claims 484m
Voucher scheme 115m
D.S.S. benefit payments 56m
Other 5m
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,235m
What about dispersal?
6. An Audit Commission report of June 2000 estimated that at least 85% of asylum seekers live in London. Government efforts at dispersal have largely failed. Only 9,000 of a target of 65,000 entered the dispersal system, some of whom have already left it [9].
What is the legal position?
7. Under the 1951 UN Refugee Convention asylum must be granted to
those "with a well founded fear of persecution". The same convention requires refugees to seek asylum in the first country of refuge; they cannot shop around. However, decisions by British courts and by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) have prevented the British authorities from returning claimants to the first refuge if it is deemed "unsafe" - that is to say that there is a risk that the claimants will be returned to their countries of origin. Many countries of Europe, are now regarded by the British courts as "unsafe" [10].
8. The practical effect of this is that virtually anyone who reaches the UK
can claim asylum on (or after) arrival. He cannot usually be sent back to a transit country. As a by-product of the Human Rights Act each case must
be considered substantively so apparently undeserving cases cannot be filtered out. The waiting time for decision has been four years (it is now
coming down). Meanwhile, the claimant is entitled to free accommodation, emergency health care, children's education, a cash allowance and free
legal aid.
9. The case of the Afghan hijack illustrates the difficulties. On 7 Feb 2000
an Afghan plane was hijacked on an internal flight and eventually landed at Stansted with 170 people on board of whom at least half claimed asylum. On 10 Feb the Home Secretary told Parliament that "Subject to compliance with all legal requirements, I would wish to see removed from this country all those on the plane as soon as reasonably practical" [11]. Two years later 89 were still in the country, 36 applications are still undecided, 35 have been refused but are still appealing and 18 have been granted refugee status [12]. The legal costs are running into millions.
10. This case also illustrates one of the weaknesses of the 1951 Convention. Commission of a serious criminal act is not relevant to an asylum application. Indeed, the prospect of punishment in his own country might improve the applicants position.
What is the government doing?
11. In April 2002 the Government published a further Asylum and Immigration Bill. It opened a useful debate on citizenship, put forward valuable proposals for streamlining the appeals system and also proposed stronger measures against employers of legal workers and smugglers and traffickers of people.
It included reception centres and a pilot scheme for three accommodation centres with a capacity of 3,000. This is a useful package but is nothing like sufficient to the scale of the problem. For example the accommodation centres when built will fill in two weeks at the present rate of arrivals.
What is the outlook?
12. Asylum seekers are attracted to Britain by:
- the presence of relatives or compatriots,
- the relative ease of entering and remaining in the UK as a claimant compared to many other EU Countries such as Germany or France,
- the absence of internal controls on their movements,
- welfare support and health care that may compare favourably with conditions at home,
- and by the likelihood that they can merge into the community and find illegal employment even if their application is refused.
Unless substantial changes are made in the legal framework or in the machinery for detection and removal, a continued high rate of applications
is to be expected. As noted in para 3, their children will later be able to bring
in a spouse from their native countries - thus, under present legislation, the process becomes continuous.
13. The top nine countries of origin are (at present) Iraq, Iran, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Somalia, Turkey, Yugoslavia, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe [14].
They have a combined population of 347 million. The tenth, China, has
1,230 million. All these countries have substantial minorities that would
qualify for asylum. The risks that some take to get here is an indication of the attractiveness of Britain as a destination, especially compared to conditions
in their countries of origin.
How do we compare with Europe?
14. Britain topped the list in 2000 with 81,000 applications (UNHCR figures). Germany had 65,000, Belgium 38,000, France 37,000 and Netherlands 36,000 [15]. Until 1988, by contrast, numbers applying in the UK seldom exceeded 5,000 per year. Most applicants at that time went to Germany.
15. France and Germany normally recognise as refugees only those persecuted by the state [16].
16. France grants asylum to 5% of applicants from Algeria; in Britain 80% of Algerians are accepted [17].
17. In the year 2000 France granted 15% of asylum applications [18]. In Germany less than 3% are granted asylum [19]. In Britain, the average for 1989-99 was 37% [20] but, as noted above, over 80% are believed to stay
on anyway.
Family settlement
What is happening to the numbers?
18. Those settled in the UK (and those granted asylum) have the right to bring their dependant spouses and children to the UK. Under certain circumstances their parents and grandparents can also join them.
19. In 1976, when there was a major debate in parliament, it was claimed
that the "pool" of dependants from the Indian sub-continent would be largely exhausted by the end of that parliament. Indeed, a former Minister of Immigration (Mr Alex Lyon) claimed that the total was about 100,000 [21].
In fact, from 1976 to 1999 there were 375,000 applications for entry clearance from the Indian sub-continent, 317,000 of which were as wives (fiancées) or children. In 2000 the worldwide total for family settlement in the UK was 85,000 [22].
What is government policy?
20. In June 1997 the government abolished the "primary purpose" rule. This had prevented entry to the UK if it was primarily for the purpose of marriage. One effect of the change is that marriage, even if it is an arranged marriage,
to someone settled in the UK is a simple means of avoiding immigration controls. It also, of course, establishes a continuous source of new migration. The point is further explained on a separate web page.
Illegal Immigrants
21. Numbers are, by definition, very uncertain although the USA and
some European countries attempt estimates. Those discovered by
customs and immigration officers rose from 3,300 in 1990 to over 47,000
in 2000 [23]. At least part of this increase was a result of improved detection, but the total number is likely to be considerably higher as only a fraction will
be detected.
22. Anecdotal evidence also suggests an increase. The French Red Cross
run a camp near Calais for those waiting to enter Britain illegally. The director of the camp stated in late 2000 that 20,000 people had passed through his camp that year.
23. A Home Office research paper [24] describes rising illegal immigration
as both unsustainable and undesirable in economic and social terms.
Work Permits
24.The work permit system, established in 1920, is employer-driven.
It enables employers to bring in skilled labour for up to 4 years (now 5) provided that they can show that there is no suitable worker from the
European Economic Area. In the last decade the number of permits issued has been between 30 and 50,000. 80,000 applications were made in 1999
of which 90% were approved. A proportion settled permanently but this has been a relatively successful scheme [25]. 104,000 were issued in 2001.
Students
25. 266,000 were admitted in 1998 and efforts are being made to attract
larger numbers of foreign students for higher and further education [26].
There is evidence that a proportion stay on illegally.
Total net migration from outside the EU
26. The Home Office research paper includes a graph showing the development of non-EU migration [27]; it is re-produced at Annex A.
It shows a total of 150,000 for 1998. The figure for 1999 was 183,000; that for 2000 was similar. This total includes family settlement, students and workers here for more than a year, some of the asylum seekers and others who extend their stay. A separate web page explains this further.
Economic Considerations
27.It is argued in favour of immigration that it relieves labour shortages and reduces inflation. Inflation will only be reduced to the extent that the growth of wages is depressed. Furthermore, labour shortages could be addressed by means of additional work permits which are valid for 5 years. Some make a case for the importation of labour to perform low quality work which is unpopular with the indigenous population but this risks creating an under-class; it does not amount to a case for large scale inward migration.
28.It is also suggested that immigration tends to promote economic growth. Many of the immigrants will be able and anxious to contribute to the economy but the social costs of housing health and education must also be taken into account. A Home Office research paper describes the evidence for immigration promoting economic growth as "far from definitive" [28].
29. Another consideration is the "support Ratio" - the proportion of the population of working age. It would require over I million immigrants per year up to 2050 to keep the present ratio of workers to pensioners; the population would double to 120 million. This is clearly not feasible. An older population is an inevitable and permanent consequence of fewer babies and longer lives. But there is no demographic crisis in the UK. The birth rate at 1.7 is not far below the replacement level of 2.1. However, this estimate understates family size because motherhood is being delayed. (By comparison, the birth rate in Germany is 1.3 and in Italy is 1.2). The over 65s will increase from 16% to about 24% in the future but this can be managed by encouraging workforce participation and by removing obstacles and disincentives to a longer working life as the population becomes healthier [29]. In the longer run, it would help if it were made easier for women to have the number of children they consistently say they want to have (around 2). Another approach would be to improve British productivity which currently lags 20% behind France and Germany and 40% behind the United States.
30. Little work appears to have been done on the social costs and benefits of immigration. An essential first step would be for the Home Office to publish details of overall annual intakes including an assessment of overstayers and illegal immigrants.
31.In the 1990s, immigration became the most important component of population growth and of the projected future growth of households and hence for the new building programme. Over half of migrants live in London and the South East and more than two thirds of new migrants are settling there [30]. Annex B, taken from the Home Office research paper shows the distribution of migrants in England and Wales as a share of the population.
32. Ethnic minorities now make up 27% of London's population. This is projected to rise 10 31% by 2011. Children in London schools speak more than 300 languages. [31]
Conclusions
Net inward migration from non EU countries has trebled since 1994 to 183,000 in 1999.
Significant components- asylum seekers and family settlement- are likely
to continue to increase. Indeed, under present legislation, they will
continue indefinitely.
Illegal immigration is an additional, unquantifiable, component.
The economic case for such flows is far from definitive.
The social consequences have been little investigated but the implications, for example for housing, are considerable. Congestion in the cities, particularly in London, will increase. Consequent increased demand for new housing in the South outside London is already apparent.
A recession would have some temporary impact on the inward flow but a fundamental change in the legal framework would be necessary to achieve
a permanent impact.
We need to find a balance between meeting the humanitarian needs of
those genuinely fleeing persecution and the serious practical consequences for our society and its future that stem from migration on its present scale. MigrationWatch UK will be conducting further research on key aspects
of this problem.
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Home Office Statistical Bulletin (HOSB) 22/00; Control of Immigration. The totals cover the twelve months ending 30 June each year (see fig 3 p 7).
HOSB 17/00; Asylum Statistics UK 1999; para 7. In 1999 21% of principal applicants were joined by dependants prior to the principal decision. 7% by one, 7% by two,
and 7% by three or more dependants. These proportions are consistent with those of the previous nine years. Thus at least 42% should be added to the total of principal applicants each year to get the total number of persons. This total does not include dependants who followed after the principal decision.
HOSB 17/00 paras 17 and 18.
Audit Commission Report " Another Country " [quoted in The Times of 1 June 00, para 17].
H.O. Asylum Statistics December 2000 Table 1
HOSB 14/01 Tables 2.1 and 4.1
The Times 14 Feb 2001
The Guardian 22 May, quoting the Home Office
As for footnote iv
Sunday Times 20 Dec 2000
Hansard Col 418
Written answer No 96 of May 2002
The Times 26 July 2001
As for v page 1
IGC Secretariat, UNHCR and Population Reference Bureau published in The Times on 26 Jan 2001.
The Times 26 Jan 01
The Times 20 Dec 2000. Report of Law Lords decision on an appeal by Hamid Aitseguer, quoting Lord Hobhouse.
Sunday Times 11 Feb 2001
The Guardian 23 May 2001 supplement p 9
As for 3
Hansard 24 May 1976 Col 60
Home Office RDS Control of Immigration: statistics, UK 2000
White Paper, Feb 2002. Para 5:3
As for xxii. Summary Para 10
As for xxii. Para 5.8
As for xxii Para 5.13
As for xxii Para 3.16
As for xxii Summary Para 4
C.Shaw. UK Population Trends in the 21st century, Population Trends 103 Table 1 and pp37-46
As for 22 Para 6.34
Planning for London's Growth p16 (ISBN 1-85261-355-6)
1. Recent developments in Europe have drawn attention to the question of immigration in Britain. This recent focus has been on asylum seekers but this addresses only one aspect of a complex problem. To get a fuller picture it is necessary to consider asylum seekers, family settlement, labour migration and illegal immigration together. This paper, therefore, provides an overview of the main issues. Numbered footnotes indicate the sources.
Recent History
2. Until the 1950s there had been no major immigration into Britain, other than from Ireland, since the Norman invasion nearly 1000 years ago. About 100,000 Huguenots arrived from France in the 17th century and a similar number of Jews in the late 19th century. Approximately 70,000 refugees from Nazi Germany were admitted in the 1930s. New Commonwealth immigration began in the 1950s. In the 1960s acceptances for settlement were at the rate of about 75,000 a year. Racial tension led to successively tighter restrictions on immigration. By 1971 it was believed that primary immigration had been brought to an end. There has since been little public discussion of the subject. However, in practice, there was only a modest reduction in Commonwealth immigration. The average number of New Commonwealth acceptances for settlement in the 1970s was 72,000 per year, in the 1980s and early 1990s it was about 54,000 per year. Since 1996 that figure has more than doubled to 125,500 in 2000. The total since 1963 is nearly 2.5 million (some of whom, of course, will no longer be living in Britain). The ethnic minority population (largely New Commonwealth immigrants and their descendants) now accounts for 4 million (7%) of the population of England and Wales.
Asylum seekers
What is happening to the numbers?
3. The number of applications has more than doubled in the past four years from 30,000 in 1996 to 76,000 in the year to June 2000 [1]. If accompanying dependants are added that year's total was about 100,000 [2]. There was 72,000 applications in 2001. The final figure will be higher since those granted asylum can subsequently bring in non-accompanying dependants. In due course, their children can bring in spouses so new and continuing sources of immigration are being generated.
What about those who are refused?
4. In the period 1989-99 nearly 63% of the 356,200 applicants and dependants were refused permission to stay [3] but only about a quarter of those refused are believed to have left the country [4]. Thus 84% of the total stayed on. In the year 2000 the proportion of refusals was higher (78% of 110,000 decisions) [5] but, again, most applicants are believed to have stayed on. In the year 2000 the government initiated action to deport 51,000 asylum seekers but only removed 9,000 [6]. The government's "target" for removals in 2001 is 12,000 and 30,000 in 2002 [7]; this second target appears to be unrealistic. It is, in any case, only just over a third of those believed to stay
on illegally.
What is the cost?
5. The cost of asylum seekers in 2000 was estimated by the Home Office at £1,235 million [8]. It was made up as follows;
Payments to Local Authorities
for accommodation and subsistence 575m
Processing asylum claims 484m
Voucher scheme 115m
D.S.S. benefit payments 56m
Other 5m
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,235m
What about dispersal?
6. An Audit Commission report of June 2000 estimated that at least 85% of asylum seekers live in London. Government efforts at dispersal have largely failed. Only 9,000 of a target of 65,000 entered the dispersal system, some of whom have already left it [9].
What is the legal position?
7. Under the 1951 UN Refugee Convention asylum must be granted to
those "with a well founded fear of persecution". The same convention requires refugees to seek asylum in the first country of refuge; they cannot shop around. However, decisions by British courts and by the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) have prevented the British authorities from returning claimants to the first refuge if it is deemed "unsafe" - that is to say that there is a risk that the claimants will be returned to their countries of origin. Many countries of Europe, are now regarded by the British courts as "unsafe" [10].
8. The practical effect of this is that virtually anyone who reaches the UK
can claim asylum on (or after) arrival. He cannot usually be sent back to a transit country. As a by-product of the Human Rights Act each case must
be considered substantively so apparently undeserving cases cannot be filtered out. The waiting time for decision has been four years (it is now
coming down). Meanwhile, the claimant is entitled to free accommodation, emergency health care, children's education, a cash allowance and free
legal aid.
9. The case of the Afghan hijack illustrates the difficulties. On 7 Feb 2000
an Afghan plane was hijacked on an internal flight and eventually landed at Stansted with 170 people on board of whom at least half claimed asylum. On 10 Feb the Home Secretary told Parliament that "Subject to compliance with all legal requirements, I would wish to see removed from this country all those on the plane as soon as reasonably practical" [11]. Two years later 89 were still in the country, 36 applications are still undecided, 35 have been refused but are still appealing and 18 have been granted refugee status [12]. The legal costs are running into millions.
10. This case also illustrates one of the weaknesses of the 1951 Convention. Commission of a serious criminal act is not relevant to an asylum application. Indeed, the prospect of punishment in his own country might improve the applicants position.
What is the government doing?
11. In April 2002 the Government published a further Asylum and Immigration Bill. It opened a useful debate on citizenship, put forward valuable proposals for streamlining the appeals system and also proposed stronger measures against employers of legal workers and smugglers and traffickers of people.
It included reception centres and a pilot scheme for three accommodation centres with a capacity of 3,000. This is a useful package but is nothing like sufficient to the scale of the problem. For example the accommodation centres when built will fill in two weeks at the present rate of arrivals.
What is the outlook?
12. Asylum seekers are attracted to Britain by:
- the presence of relatives or compatriots,
- the relative ease of entering and remaining in the UK as a claimant compared to many other EU Countries such as Germany or France,
- the absence of internal controls on their movements,
- welfare support and health care that may compare favourably with conditions at home,
- and by the likelihood that they can merge into the community and find illegal employment even if their application is refused.
Unless substantial changes are made in the legal framework or in the machinery for detection and removal, a continued high rate of applications
is to be expected. As noted in para 3, their children will later be able to bring
in a spouse from their native countries - thus, under present legislation, the process becomes continuous.
13. The top nine countries of origin are (at present) Iraq, Iran, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Somalia, Turkey, Yugoslavia, Pakistan, and Zimbabwe [14].
They have a combined population of 347 million. The tenth, China, has
1,230 million. All these countries have substantial minorities that would
qualify for asylum. The risks that some take to get here is an indication of the attractiveness of Britain as a destination, especially compared to conditions
in their countries of origin.
How do we compare with Europe?
14. Britain topped the list in 2000 with 81,000 applications (UNHCR figures). Germany had 65,000, Belgium 38,000, France 37,000 and Netherlands 36,000 [15]. Until 1988, by contrast, numbers applying in the UK seldom exceeded 5,000 per year. Most applicants at that time went to Germany.
15. France and Germany normally recognise as refugees only those persecuted by the state [16].
16. France grants asylum to 5% of applicants from Algeria; in Britain 80% of Algerians are accepted [17].
17. In the year 2000 France granted 15% of asylum applications [18]. In Germany less than 3% are granted asylum [19]. In Britain, the average for 1989-99 was 37% [20] but, as noted above, over 80% are believed to stay
on anyway.
Family settlement
What is happening to the numbers?
18. Those settled in the UK (and those granted asylum) have the right to bring their dependant spouses and children to the UK. Under certain circumstances their parents and grandparents can also join them.
19. In 1976, when there was a major debate in parliament, it was claimed
that the "pool" of dependants from the Indian sub-continent would be largely exhausted by the end of that parliament. Indeed, a former Minister of Immigration (Mr Alex Lyon) claimed that the total was about 100,000 [21].
In fact, from 1976 to 1999 there were 375,000 applications for entry clearance from the Indian sub-continent, 317,000 of which were as wives (fiancées) or children. In 2000 the worldwide total for family settlement in the UK was 85,000 [22].
What is government policy?
20. In June 1997 the government abolished the "primary purpose" rule. This had prevented entry to the UK if it was primarily for the purpose of marriage. One effect of the change is that marriage, even if it is an arranged marriage,
to someone settled in the UK is a simple means of avoiding immigration controls. It also, of course, establishes a continuous source of new migration. The point is further explained on a separate web page.
Illegal Immigrants
21. Numbers are, by definition, very uncertain although the USA and
some European countries attempt estimates. Those discovered by
customs and immigration officers rose from 3,300 in 1990 to over 47,000
in 2000 [23]. At least part of this increase was a result of improved detection, but the total number is likely to be considerably higher as only a fraction will
be detected.
22. Anecdotal evidence also suggests an increase. The French Red Cross
run a camp near Calais for those waiting to enter Britain illegally. The director of the camp stated in late 2000 that 20,000 people had passed through his camp that year.
23. A Home Office research paper [24] describes rising illegal immigration
as both unsustainable and undesirable in economic and social terms.
Work Permits
24.The work permit system, established in 1920, is employer-driven.
It enables employers to bring in skilled labour for up to 4 years (now 5) provided that they can show that there is no suitable worker from the
European Economic Area. In the last decade the number of permits issued has been between 30 and 50,000. 80,000 applications were made in 1999
of which 90% were approved. A proportion settled permanently but this has been a relatively successful scheme [25]. 104,000 were issued in 2001.
Students
25. 266,000 were admitted in 1998 and efforts are being made to attract
larger numbers of foreign students for higher and further education [26].
There is evidence that a proportion stay on illegally.
Total net migration from outside the EU
26. The Home Office research paper includes a graph showing the development of non-EU migration [27]; it is re-produced at Annex A.
It shows a total of 150,000 for 1998. The figure for 1999 was 183,000; that for 2000 was similar. This total includes family settlement, students and workers here for more than a year, some of the asylum seekers and others who extend their stay. A separate web page explains this further.
Economic Considerations
27.It is argued in favour of immigration that it relieves labour shortages and reduces inflation. Inflation will only be reduced to the extent that the growth of wages is depressed. Furthermore, labour shortages could be addressed by means of additional work permits which are valid for 5 years. Some make a case for the importation of labour to perform low quality work which is unpopular with the indigenous population but this risks creating an under-class; it does not amount to a case for large scale inward migration.
28.It is also suggested that immigration tends to promote economic growth. Many of the immigrants will be able and anxious to contribute to the economy but the social costs of housing health and education must also be taken into account. A Home Office research paper describes the evidence for immigration promoting economic growth as "far from definitive" [28].
29. Another consideration is the "support Ratio" - the proportion of the population of working age. It would require over I million immigrants per year up to 2050 to keep the present ratio of workers to pensioners; the population would double to 120 million. This is clearly not feasible. An older population is an inevitable and permanent consequence of fewer babies and longer lives. But there is no demographic crisis in the UK. The birth rate at 1.7 is not far below the replacement level of 2.1. However, this estimate understates family size because motherhood is being delayed. (By comparison, the birth rate in Germany is 1.3 and in Italy is 1.2). The over 65s will increase from 16% to about 24% in the future but this can be managed by encouraging workforce participation and by removing obstacles and disincentives to a longer working life as the population becomes healthier [29]. In the longer run, it would help if it were made easier for women to have the number of children they consistently say they want to have (around 2). Another approach would be to improve British productivity which currently lags 20% behind France and Germany and 40% behind the United States.
30. Little work appears to have been done on the social costs and benefits of immigration. An essential first step would be for the Home Office to publish details of overall annual intakes including an assessment of overstayers and illegal immigrants.
31.In the 1990s, immigration became the most important component of population growth and of the projected future growth of households and hence for the new building programme. Over half of migrants live in London and the South East and more than two thirds of new migrants are settling there [30]. Annex B, taken from the Home Office research paper shows the distribution of migrants in England and Wales as a share of the population.
32. Ethnic minorities now make up 27% of London's population. This is projected to rise 10 31% by 2011. Children in London schools speak more than 300 languages. [31]
Conclusions
Net inward migration from non EU countries has trebled since 1994 to 183,000 in 1999.
Significant components- asylum seekers and family settlement- are likely
to continue to increase. Indeed, under present legislation, they will
continue indefinitely.
Illegal immigration is an additional, unquantifiable, component.
The economic case for such flows is far from definitive.
The social consequences have been little investigated but the implications, for example for housing, are considerable. Congestion in the cities, particularly in London, will increase. Consequent increased demand for new housing in the South outside London is already apparent.
A recession would have some temporary impact on the inward flow but a fundamental change in the legal framework would be necessary to achieve
a permanent impact.
We need to find a balance between meeting the humanitarian needs of
those genuinely fleeing persecution and the serious practical consequences for our society and its future that stem from migration on its present scale. MigrationWatch UK will be conducting further research on key aspects
of this problem.
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Home Office Statistical Bulletin (HOSB) 22/00; Control of Immigration. The totals cover the twelve months ending 30 June each year (see fig 3 p 7).
HOSB 17/00; Asylum Statistics UK 1999; para 7. In 1999 21% of principal applicants were joined by dependants prior to the principal decision. 7% by one, 7% by two,
and 7% by three or more dependants. These proportions are consistent with those of the previous nine years. Thus at least 42% should be added to the total of principal applicants each year to get the total number of persons. This total does not include dependants who followed after the principal decision.
HOSB 17/00 paras 17 and 18.
Audit Commission Report " Another Country " [quoted in The Times of 1 June 00, para 17].
H.O. Asylum Statistics December 2000 Table 1
HOSB 14/01 Tables 2.1 and 4.1
The Times 14 Feb 2001
The Guardian 22 May, quoting the Home Office
As for footnote iv
Sunday Times 20 Dec 2000
Hansard Col 418
Written answer No 96 of May 2002
The Times 26 July 2001
As for v page 1
IGC Secretariat, UNHCR and Population Reference Bureau published in The Times on 26 Jan 2001.
The Times 26 Jan 01
The Times 20 Dec 2000. Report of Law Lords decision on an appeal by Hamid Aitseguer, quoting Lord Hobhouse.
Sunday Times 11 Feb 2001
The Guardian 23 May 2001 supplement p 9
As for 3
Hansard 24 May 1976 Col 60
Home Office RDS Control of Immigration: statistics, UK 2000
White Paper, Feb 2002. Para 5:3
As for xxii. Summary Para 10
As for xxii. Para 5.8
As for xxii Para 5.13
As for xxii Para 3.16
As for xxii Summary Para 4
C.Shaw. UK Population Trends in the 21st century, Population Trends 103 Table 1 and pp37-46
As for 22 Para 6.34
Planning for London's Growth p16 (ISBN 1-85261-355-6)
MigrationWatch