Three million would die in "limited" nuclear war over Kashmir


15:05 24 May 02

NewScientist.com news service

A minimum of three million people would be killed and 1.5 million seriously injured if even a "limited" nuclear war broke out between India and Pakistan, warns a new study uncovered by New Scientist.

The estimates are comprised of the immediate casualty list from blast, fire and radiation if only a tenth of both countries' nuclear weapons were exploded above 10 of their largest cities. It does not take account of the inevitable suffering that would result from the loss of homes, hospitals, water and energy supplies, or the cancers that could develop in future years.




Tension between India and Pakistan over the disputed territory of Kashmir has escalated, following an attack earlier in May on an Indian army camp that left 30 dead. Troops are reported to be moving into the area, with up to a million soldiers facing each other across the border. The dispute has seen two full-scale wars and numerous lesser conflicts over the last 55 years.

Fears have centred on a scenario in which an attempt for what India's Prime Minister has called a "decisive victory" could prompt Pakistan, which has far fewer conventional military forces, to launch a nuclear attack. Suggestions on Friday that India will allow Pakistan two months to stop cross border attacks by militants have also been interpreted as buying time for an Indian attack.


Credible and devastating


The US and Asian nuclear researchers investigated the impact of 10 explosions similar to that detonated by the US over the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945. They assume that five 15-kilotonne bombs explode 600 metres above Bangalore, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and New Delhi in India, while another five explode above Faisalabad, Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi in Pakistan.

They conclude that hundreds of thousands of people would be killed or badly injured in every city, amounting to 2.6 million in India and 1.8 million in Pakistan. The prospect is credible and devastating, warns M V Ramana one of the researchers from Princeton University, New Jersey and an expert on nuclear policy in India.

"It is imperative that the two countries not go to war - however limited in scale. Even the most local conflicts have the potential to escalate into a full-scale war, possibly nuclear," Ramana told New Scientist.


Nuclear arsenals


Estimates of the size of India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals vary widely, though the most reliable are those that are founded on their stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium.

The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington DC suggests that India has about 65 warheads made from 310 kilograms of plutonium, while Pakistan has around 40 made from 690 kilograms of uranium.

Most of the weapons are likely to be around the 15-kilotonne range and some of them may not work, says the institute's David Albright. But it is possible to conceive of circumstances in which they could all be fired, particularly if decisions have to be left to individual commanders after a breakdown in communications.

If bombs explode on the ground instead of in the air, the resulting radioactive dust could kill people across hundreds of square kilometres, Albright points out. And because the prevailing winds are from the west, India is more likely to become the victim of its own fall-out than Pakistan.


Rob Edwards

 http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99992326