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Venezuela: Rumored U.S. Involvement Could Hurt Bush Administration
14 April 2002

Summary

Human intelligence sources in Venezuela and Washington told STRATFOR April 14 that the Central Intelligence Agency and the U.S. State Department may have been involved separately in the events that took place in Caracas between April 5 and April 13. If the information is correct, the reinstatement of President Hugo Chavez less than 48 hours after he was toppled by a civilian-military coup could have disastrous implications for the Bush administration's policy in Latin America.

Analysis

Several human sources told STRATFOR on April 14 that the U.S. State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency may have had a hand in the tumultuous events that occurred between April 5 and April 13 in Caracas, culminating in President Hugo Chavez's brief ouster and his return to power.

Although these sources may have had their own motivations for making the allegation, it is possible -- if the Chavez regime produces convincing evidence of U.S. government involvement in the failed coup -- that it could poison Washington's relations with governments throughout Latin America. Efforts to win regional support for increased U.S. military support to Colombia, and to other Andean ridge countries battling the twin threats of international drug trafficking and nominally Marxist insurgencies, would be set back significantly in Latin America and Washington. The Bush administration's efforts to pursue more free trade agreements in the region also would be undermined.

Chavez could strengthen his own political base in Venezuela if he can quickly prove U.S. involvement in attempts to topple his 3-year-old regime. This also would give a tremendous boost to Chavez's leadership status and credibility with populist and nationalist groups across Latin America that view the United States as a threat and that oppose U.S.-style capitalist democracy.

The U.S. government has a long history of interfering with Latin American regimes viewed as unfriendly or dangerous to U.S. national security interests in the region. Although the Bush administration tried very hard in the past week to distance itself from the chaos in Venezuela, many governments in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East and Asia viewed Washington's cautious silence on Venezuela with considerable skepticism.

However, if STRATFOR's sources are correct, the skepticism may have been justified. ... ... ...

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'Overthrowing a man such as Hugo Chavez, guilty of such transgressions, was a duty so "natural" for the CIA that the only reason it might not have been intimately involved in the operation would be that the Agency had been secretly disbanded.' - William Blum