Iraqi exiles ruled out of any attack on Saddam
By Roula Khalaf in Beirut and Richard Wolffe in Washington
Published: March 24 2002 20:21 | Last Updated: March 24 2002 22:16



A leading exiled Iraqi opposition group that has lobbied the US for a military role in any attempt to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein has recognised it will be limited to a political agenda.

This suggests the US may be moving away from any plan to remove the Iraqi president using the "Afghanistan model" in which Northern Alliance opposition forces worked with US forces to unseat the Taliban regime.

The Iraqi National Congress, the London-based group that has sought the application of the Afghanistan model to a military attack on Baghdad, now believes it will be "marginalised".

The INC's new focus comes as the Bush administration seeks to garner support for action against Iraq. The US is broadening its dialogue with exiled groups to include former members of the Iraqi military establishment and other dissident organisations.

The State Department is preparing to hold a conference on Iraq's future that would include the political opposition as well as experts and professionals.

An INC leader said: "For 30 years the opposition has been structuring itself to be the instrument of change of regime but here we're talking about the US using overwhelming force to bring down the regime, so we have to change our strategy. Whatever we do, we will be marginalised in the actual regime change so the role of the opposition will become much more practical."

The INC's leadership and plans are supported by Pentagon hawks and many in Congress. But the group's credibility and ability to participate in a military campaign has been questioned by the State Department and the Central Intelligence Agency.

The umbrella opposition group also has acrimonious relations with other dissidents and with Iraq's Arab neighbours.

Opposition leaders critical of the INC say Washington's only hope of ousting the Iraqi regime - a decision Washington insists has not been taken - is by encouraging an internal military coup or invading the country.

The aim of the conference, to be held in Europe, is to encourage opposition to the regime inside Iraq and send reassurances to Baghdad's neighbours that a new government would maintain territorial integrity.

A US policy analyst said: "It is not an anti-INC effort but an attempt to show other governments that serious Iraqis can come together and agree on basic issues. The most important thing is to set in motion a process of planning for Iraq's future.

"When change occurs, there will be an immense demand for skills and direction from the diaspora."

US officials are expected next month to meet the "group of four" opposition parties that have joined forces in an informal structure.

Ayad Allawi, head of the INA, said in an interview: "The idea is not to create a new umbrella but to get the real forces that have relationships inside Iraq to co- ordinate outside and inside. But there will not be any government in exile. Those who will change the regime are in Baghdad."




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