Destruction and death were waiting to happen in the tinderbox called India. Since last few days Hindus and Muslims are dying like flies and property is being destroyed in a mad frenzy. The carnage will stop and the property will be rebuilt in due course of time but the process which has begun, cannot be terminated until it reaches its logical end. Whether we like it or not, this is the beginning of the end for India.

M N Roy, Indian ambassador in Turkmenistan, sounded sad and perplexed when he phoned me on Friday (1 March). Earlier in the morning I had faxed him a condolence message about the sad incident of Godhra in Gujarat state where 57 Kar Sevak passengers were burnt alive in the Sabarmati express. He phoned to thank me for the condolence message and express hope that violence will be contained soonest.

Roy was sad and perplexed and just didn’t know what to say. He is not alone; no one knows what to say when a nation begins performing ablutions in its own blood.

As a reflex action – like Pavlov’s dogs – certain elements in Indian government and press have pointed a quick finger toward Pakistan. Daily Milap of India, a multilingual newspaper which doesn’t hide its pro-Hindu biases, reported on 2 March quoting Indian home ministry sources that, "Initial investigations indicate involvement of ISI in the Godhra incident."

To leave no doubts in the minds of readers, the paper adds, "[ministry] officials already suspected that such an incident was in the offing and modus operandi carries ISI signature."

Daily Pioneer of India carried a statement by D Swami, Minister of State for Home on 1 March that "Involvement of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence in the Sabarmati Express attack on Wednesday could not be ruled out." The enlightened minister also added that, "Gujarat is a communally sensitive place and a border state. It is next door to Pakistan which is the epicentre of cross-border terrorism. There is something beyond what meets the eye in the Godhra incident. In the present scenario, the involvement of ISI cannot be ruled out. "

As is usual in such cases, armchair pundits have come up with half baked theories. Some ascribe the whole thing to ISI and some blame the Indian government (both federal and state) for this blood bath. These are both wrong assumptions. ISI certainly did not have anything to do with it and Indian government (whether federal or provincial) surely did not engineer this massacre willfully and consciously.

To identify the reasons of Godhra phenomenon and to forecast its overall effects on India, we must go back to 1992 and then travel back and forth in time to connect various developments.

If we have to determine the datum line of present problem, it is destruction of Babri mosque in Ayudhia in 1992.

To maintain strict objectivity, I would avoid commenting on Babri mosque incident in my own words. Instead, here is a quote from a dispatch of Luke Harding, Guardian correspondent in India. Harding writes on 1 March:

"The attack on the Babri Masjid mosque was well-planned. After months of secret preparation, a group of Hindu zealots climbed the three domes of Ayodhya's most famous Muslim place of worship and set to work. Using sledgehammers and chisels, they started to demolish the elegant 16th-century building.

"They were watched by cheering crowds - and by politicians who are now in India's coalition cabinet, which is led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata party (BJP). The demolition, on December 6, 1992, changed everything in Indian politics. For most Indians, the destruction marked one of the bleakest days in the country's history. But for India's increasingly strident Hindu rightwing, it meant unfinished business."

To cap his observation, Harding declares unambiguously, "Underlying the party's objectives was a darker theme: India was a Hindu country which had no place for Muslims."

Having established this basic premise, let’s go back to 1948 – assassination of Mahatma Gandhi. Gandhi was also from Gujarat state, the seat of present bloodshed in India. His assassin Nathuram Godse and co-conspirators Narayan Apte, Vishnu Karkare, Digambar Bagde, Shankar Kishtaiyya , Gopal Godse, Veer Savarkar, D Parchure and Madanlal Pahwa all belonged to the same extremist group whose ideological descendants are now ruling (or un-ruling) India in the shape of VHP (Vishva Hindu Prishad), BJP (Bharatiya Janta party), Shiv Sena and Bajrang Dal.

For an ideological group which can resort to the murder of Mahatma Gandhi, nothing is off limit; no blood is sacred except Hindu blood.

The idea, as pointed out by Luke Harding, is : Hindustan is for Hindus. All others should either leave India or convert to Hinduism.

Shudhi and Sanghtan movements, featuring forcible conversion to Hinduism, are a part and parcel of BJP and VHP.

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Let’s see, very briefly, what happened and then try to analyze as to what went wrong and why :-

Sabramati Express, carrying mostly Hindu pilgrims from Ayudhia stopped at Godhra railway station for about five minutes on 27 February and then left for its next destination. The passengers were mostly pilgrims returning from Ayudhia where a coalition of Hindu hardliner parties is trying to start construction of Ram temple on the site vacated by demolition of Babri mosque. Muslims and Hindus both claim the site on religious grounds and the case for possession of site is pending in Indian supreme court. Hindu extremists, however, have decided unilaterally to go ahead with construction of the temple. March 12 , is their present deadline unless something happens to change their mind and plans. In answer to their call, devoted Hindus from all over India have been pouring into Ayudhia and camping in a make-shift tin city, providing moral support and political clout for construction of temple.

The devotees traveling in Sabramati Express on 27 February were shouting slogans to the effect that Ram temple will be built and down with Muslims etc. They had been chanting these slogans on every railway station where the train stopped.

After the train left Godhra railway station, it was stopped about a kilometer away from the station. Reason for the halt is not known. Some reports indicate that the outer signal post displayed red signal, and some say that someone inside the train pulled the emergency lever. Whatever the reason, the train stopped in the vicinity of a mob of about 200 Muslims who were chanting counter-slogans.

In the melee which ensued, train passengers and mob clashed with each other and some groups from the mob set a few bogies of train on fire. Reportedly, they also prevented the passengers from escaping the inferno, causing death of 57 persons, many of them women and children.



This is the core incident around which the present Indian tragedy is built. It raises certain questions. Mystery, if there is any, is hidden in answers to these questions.

If one is to believe the statements of Indian government that ISI was involved in this hideous act, and clues were available as to the plans of ISI, the question arises : Why no action was taken to prevent it.

A mob of 200 is not exactly a needle in a haystack. An angry mob, waiting suspiciously along the railway tracks, should have attracted the attention of law enforcement agencies. Moreover, who informed the mob that Sabramati Express will arrive on time and will be carrying pilgrims who will be chanting anti Muslim slogans?

It takes some time to collect 200 angry young men, even in as populous a country as India. Did the mob start assembling in the early afternoon or did they assemble in some secret place and emerged all of a sudden to spring a surprise on the railway train. According to some reports, some agitators in the mob were carrying fire bombs in their pockets. This indicates no spontaneous action. In a sensitive state like Gujarat, at a time when Ram temple is the hot issue of local politics, ignorance of law enforcement agencies about such plans and their total absence from the scene of crime sounds mighty suspicious.

When this crime happened – and have no doubts about this, it was a grave crime against all humanity – an analyst friend of mine sent me an email message. Part of his message forecasts that Gujarat government will stay put for a day or two to provide the Hindus an opportunity to ‘get back.’

Unfortunately, his forecast was only partially true. Gujarat government not only provided opportunity for Hindus to ‘settle the score’ but extended whole hearted support to the general massacre.

In an article titled "Curfew ties victims, frees killers", published in Hindustan Times on 1 March,
Vinay Menon informs that :

"In the mayhem that they have unleashed in Ahmedabad over the past 48 hours, the VHP's hoodlums have had an important ally — the city's police force. There are allegations that curfew was imposed selectively over the city — pinning the Muslim population of the walled city inside their homes, even as Hindu mobs were allowed to run amok elsewhere."

He also goes on to say that :

"In Chamanpura, where one of the most gruesome mass murders took place, the police apparently made no attempt to stop the killers."

During the early riots, an ex-MP from Gujarat, Ahsan Jafry and his whole family were murdered by the rioters. Revealing a very significant fact about this brutal murder, Vinay Menon writes that :

"Police Commissioner P.C. Pandey visited the area and spoke with Ahsan Jaffrey shortly before the mob burnt the ex-MP alive," said a Congress worker who was witness to the incident. "Policemen on duty did not fire a single shot till seven in the evening, by which time the killers had accomplished their mission."

DSP of Rajkot, on receiving the news of riots, switched off his mobile phone and remained unavailable until all the damage had been done in his area of jurisdiction.

According to the reports of Daily Inquilab of India, a senior police officer, while talking to Star TV, said cheerfully, "Some bloodshed does take place in such cases."

When Star TV asked another police officer (Commissioner Pandey), "Is it true that Gujarat police is displaying a biased attitude?", he replied very frankly, "It is but natural that police will be swayed by public sentiments."

Daily Inquilab, in its editorial of 2 March, has clearly spelled out that, "It is not necessary to investigate as to which individuals and organizations are responsible for this carnage. Gujarat strike [which resulted in mass murder of Muslims] was called by VHP and was officially endorsed and supported by state government of Gujarat whose chief minister Nrindar Modi is a protégé of L K Advani. In other words, the strike [and accompanying carnage] was organized by VHP and Gujarat government."

Prime Minister Vajpayee, who is known as ‘right man in wrong party’, admitted this much when he issued an official statement on Saturday that eruption of Hindu-Muslim violence in Gujarat state was a "disgrace to the nation"

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In all honesty, it can be said that state government of Gujarat is fully responsible for the mass massacre. As to the long term effects of this catastrophe, we can see various roads opening out of this quagmire, some short and some circuitous, but all leading to one final conclusion : Total destruction of India as we know it today.

Federal government of India is also responsible, though indirectly. By deploying almost all of its armed forces along India-Pakistan border , the government has created a war hysteria in the Indian nation. Rhetorics of L K Advani, Fernandes and other mediocres have sprayed gasoline on the flames. Immature and irresponsible Indian politicians have continuously been pumping their voters to hate Pakistan. The hate, when the chance arose, was automatically directed at the most convenient group of people who can be associated with any image of Pakistan. Now, even if the government want to, it cannot undo what has been done.

Another factor, which led to unaccountably high death rate is that most of the army units who were familiar with local terrain and geography, were deployed along the border from where they cannot be shifted back for political reasons. Gujarat state was practically empty of army troops. The government had to reassign army units from other areas and the new comers were neither familiar with geography nor terrain. This resulted in ineffective presence of army in the riot ridden areas within first 48 hours of the crisis.

For one thing, Indian society is now firmly and irrevocably divided along religious and sectarian lines. Many among the Indian nation seem to realize this fact but it may be too late now.

A survey conducted by Hindustan Times concludes that more than 60% of readers blame Gujarat government for this tragedy. Another survey by Hindustan Times informs that more than 67% participants opine that Vajpayee should unconditional suspension of construction of Ram temple.

This sudden change of opinion is only the tip of the iceberg.

Present deployment of Indian army along Indo-Pak border is not a child’s play. Keeping an army in a state of readiness is expensive business. Indian economy cannot sustain it for more than 6 months at most.

Internal troubles warrant extraordinary vigilance on the part of law and order agencies, another expensive undertaking.

Present trouble is costing Rs. 500 Crores loss per day in terms of lost business in Gujarat state alone. It is difficult but not impossible to imagine as to what kind of havoc is being wreaked on the Indian economy in the hands of Hindu extremists.

When economy weakens, state becomes vulnerable to internal and external threats. In India’s case, external threats will not be necessary because internal troubles are enough to split the country into 21 or more independent states. It may happen sooner or it may happen later, but happen it will.

Hindu extremism is the brainchild of high caste Hindus who are a minority in their own country. Muslims are about 14% of the population. Dalits (all low caste Hindus combined) account for about 40% of the population. Add to that Sikhs and Christians and you are talking of almost 78% of India.

Sikhs have found a peaceful way to promote their cause. Over the years, they have managed a sizeable lobby in American congress and Canadian government. Dalits are also working slowly but surely on these lines. Kashmiris have suffered a temporary setback but their moral advantage remains as strong as ever.

Hindu middle class is now disenchanted with BJP and their honeymoon with hardliners is over. Even the original arthitect of this carnage, L K Advani, is lying low at the moment.

The scarlet letter has now been sewn prominently on the breast of Hindu extremist mentality. It is letter ‘D’ : D for death, D for destruction and D for total dismemberment of Akhand Bharat dream.

Indian politicians – even if they come to their senses now and begin the repair process – cannot avoid the ultimate fate. By a complicated process of commission and omission, they have charted a course for their country and now they cannot do anything to change this destiny.

Whether it happens in one year or 5 years or 50 years, the Balkanization of India is going to happen. Goodbye India, welcome 21 states.