more bad oil news
yippe ky yay | 08.01.2002 05:02
CONCLUSION: Industrial Civilization (IC), as it were, is now staggering at the brink of a sheer cliff so that a strong gust of ill wind (e.g., depression spook (many intuit what's happening), collapse of the Sumo Giant (Japan), the dot.com disease, resource and ethnic wars (e.g., Middle East, Macedonia, ad infinitum), boatloads of refugees, etc.) could topple the global IC at any time.
ABSTRACT: World Oil Forecast #6 concludes the following: (1) 23 out of 44
nations [representing 99% of world oil production in 2000] have passed their production peaks, (2) 3 out of the 7 regions of the world have passed their peaks, (3) 4 out of 11 OPEC nations have passed their peaks, (4) Non-OPEC production will peak in 2003, (5) OPEC production in 2017, and (6) world oil production in 2005.
INTRODUCTION
World Oil Forecast #6 has just been completed for 44 nations comprising more than 99% of the world oil production in 2000. I used 44 separate models and the System Dynamics approach utilizing many different sources of numeric information (i.e., data) including (1) oil discoveries [USGS, World Oil, etc.], (2) reserve estimates [USGS, O&GJ, BP, etc.], and (3) production data [BP, O&GJ, World Oil, etc.]. Notable advantages of System Dynamics include (1) its large selection of simulation tools, (2) great flexibility, (3) ease of modification and iteration, and (4) high precision.
In this Forecast #6 I consulted with petroleum geologists in North America, Europe, and the Middle East for their first-hand experience and their heuristic (i.e., qualitative) knowledge. I call this method "Computer Augmented Intelligence" (CAI, for short) -- it includes techniques I've used (and invented) during the past 30 years while doing many different energy projects.
Note: The CAI approach has nothing whatsoever to do with e.g., parabolic, Gaussian, normal, or bell-shaped curves. Nor with Fourier or Laplace transforms. Nor with .... etc. etc. It is an entirely new and, as far as I know, unique approach to oil (energy) forecasting.
A PEEK AT THE PEAKS
Some important results of Forecast #6 are summarized below for 44 nations, 7 regions, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world. Two indicators are of special interest: [1] the peak year of production for each nation, region, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world, and [2] "EUR Used": the ratio of Cumulative Oil Production (Q at end-2000) and Expected Ultimate Recovery (EUR) expressed in percent [%].
"Peak Year" means the historic or forecasted year of peak oil production.
"EUR Used" means the ratio of Q (at end-2000) and the EUR expressed in percent [%]. Briefly put: When "EUR Used" equals 100%, then oil production stops -- forever.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION I: NORTH AMERICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments USA 1970 79.3 1st nation to peak Canada 2006 48.1 Mexico 2005 46.7 N AMERICA 1984 69.1% 1st region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION II: SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Argentina 1997 62.7 Brazil 2008 23.1 Colombia 1998 47.7 Ecuador 2006 43.9 Peru 1979 76.6 Trinidad 1977 71.5 Venezuela 1970 51.6 2nd OPEC nation to peak S&C AMERICA 2008 48.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION III: EUROPE -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Denmark 2000 29.2 Italy 1997 55.3 Norway 2003 44.8 Romania 1976 75.6 UK 1998 58.9 2nd peak came from tax breaks EUROPE 1999 52.9% 3rd region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION IV: FORMER SOVIET UNION (FSU) -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments FSU 1987 60.4% 2nd region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION V: MIDDLE EAST -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Iran 1976 44.6 3rd OPEC nation to peak Iraq 2036 24.8 OPEC Kuwait 2035 30.9 OPEC Oman 2005 43.5 Qatar 2008 35.8 OPEC Saudi Arabia 2019 29.1 OPEC Syria 1995 48.8 UAE 2026 21.2 OPEC Yemen 2006 18.2 MIDDLE EAST 2020 30.5% Has 2% of world's population
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION VI: AFRICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Algeria 2006 48.6 OPEC Angola 1999 38.7 Cameroon 1985 61.1 Congo 1999 35.5 Egypt 1993 63.3 Gabon 1996 47.7 Libya 1969 43.2 1st OPEC nation to peak Nigeria 2007 44.7 OPEC: "anarchy, filth, and brutality..." Tunisia 1983 63.8 Eq. Guinea 2005 14.5 AFRICA 2006 46.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION VII: ASIA PACIFIC -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Australia 2000 50.2 Brunei 1979 63.6 China 2012 40.0 1.3 billion people India 1997/2006 (tie) 44.4 1.1 billion people Indonesia 1977 69.4 4th OPEC nation to peak Malaysia 2006 42.6 P N Guinea 1993 39.2 Vietnam 2005 22.8 Thailand 2006 25.9 ASIA PACIFIC 2010 47.8% Has 60% of world's population
------------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD -- Category Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments OPEC 2017 35.3% 72% of world oil exports in 2000 Non-OPEC 2003 58.7% WORLD 2005 46.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCUSSION
1. 23 out of 44 nations are past-peak; 24 if you count India (i.e., 1997 & 2006 are tied).
2. A few nations that I count as "past-peak" could -- in fact -- establish new peaks in the future. Time will tell.
3. In contrast to Item 2, a few nations that are NOT counted as "past-peak", could -- in fact -- already be past-peak. Example: I forecast that Kuwait's peak will occur in 2035, however it's actual peak may turn out to be 1971 when it produced 1.1 billion barrels compared to a mere 0.8 billion barrels in 2000. Thus Kuwait would have to increase its 2000 level of production by a whopping 37% to establish a new and higher peak. This may never happen.
4. 3 out of 7 regions are past-peak, and by 2010 all regions except the Middle East will be past-peak.
5. In World Oil Forecast #1 (done in 1996 and presented at Princeton University) I forecasted that the European peak would occur in 2000. Too optimistic! It actually occurred in 1999.
6. The CAI method calls for one complete new oil forecast each year for each nation, region, and the world. In this series of forecasts, each production peak is tracked by a "phase diagram" (i.e., a graphical technique, not shown here). For example: In Forecast #1 (done in 1996) through Forecast #6 (done in 2001), I have predicted the world oil production peak six times as follows: once at year 2007, twice at 2006, and three times at 2005 (including this Forecast #6, summarized above). Thus the annual series of world oil forecasts is converging on the year 2005. That's my best forecast at this time
CONCLUSION
Industrial Civilization (IC), as it were, is now staggering at the brink of a sheer cliff so that a strong gust of ill wind (e.g., depression spook (many intuit what's happening), collapse of the Sumo Giant (Japan), the dot.com disease, resource and ethnic wars (e.g., Middle East, Macedonia, ad infinitum), boatloads of refugees, etc.) could topple the global IC at any time.
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. of the Institute on Energy and Man is the author of the Olduvai Theory.
solutions.synearth.net/stories/storyRead...
Richard Duncan
Dr. Richard Duncan has developed an extensive model of the coming Global Hubbert Peak, Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method, using Stella® modeling software. Based on his investigations, he has proposed The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization. Following are links to several of Richard Duncan's papers and letters.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/
Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method/
World Oil Forecasting Program
User's Guide and Forecast #4
http://www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/
nations [representing 99% of world oil production in 2000] have passed their production peaks, (2) 3 out of the 7 regions of the world have passed their peaks, (3) 4 out of 11 OPEC nations have passed their peaks, (4) Non-OPEC production will peak in 2003, (5) OPEC production in 2017, and (6) world oil production in 2005.
INTRODUCTION
World Oil Forecast #6 has just been completed for 44 nations comprising more than 99% of the world oil production in 2000. I used 44 separate models and the System Dynamics approach utilizing many different sources of numeric information (i.e., data) including (1) oil discoveries [USGS, World Oil, etc.], (2) reserve estimates [USGS, O&GJ, BP, etc.], and (3) production data [BP, O&GJ, World Oil, etc.]. Notable advantages of System Dynamics include (1) its large selection of simulation tools, (2) great flexibility, (3) ease of modification and iteration, and (4) high precision.
In this Forecast #6 I consulted with petroleum geologists in North America, Europe, and the Middle East for their first-hand experience and their heuristic (i.e., qualitative) knowledge. I call this method "Computer Augmented Intelligence" (CAI, for short) -- it includes techniques I've used (and invented) during the past 30 years while doing many different energy projects.
Note: The CAI approach has nothing whatsoever to do with e.g., parabolic, Gaussian, normal, or bell-shaped curves. Nor with Fourier or Laplace transforms. Nor with .... etc. etc. It is an entirely new and, as far as I know, unique approach to oil (energy) forecasting.
A PEEK AT THE PEAKS
Some important results of Forecast #6 are summarized below for 44 nations, 7 regions, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world. Two indicators are of special interest: [1] the peak year of production for each nation, region, OPEC, Non-OPEC, and the world, and [2] "EUR Used": the ratio of Cumulative Oil Production (Q at end-2000) and Expected Ultimate Recovery (EUR) expressed in percent [%].
"Peak Year" means the historic or forecasted year of peak oil production.
"EUR Used" means the ratio of Q (at end-2000) and the EUR expressed in percent [%]. Briefly put: When "EUR Used" equals 100%, then oil production stops -- forever.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION I: NORTH AMERICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments USA 1970 79.3 1st nation to peak Canada 2006 48.1 Mexico 2005 46.7 N AMERICA 1984 69.1% 1st region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION II: SOUTH AND CENTRAL AMERICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Argentina 1997 62.7 Brazil 2008 23.1 Colombia 1998 47.7 Ecuador 2006 43.9 Peru 1979 76.6 Trinidad 1977 71.5 Venezuela 1970 51.6 2nd OPEC nation to peak S&C AMERICA 2008 48.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION III: EUROPE -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Denmark 2000 29.2 Italy 1997 55.3 Norway 2003 44.8 Romania 1976 75.6 UK 1998 58.9 2nd peak came from tax breaks EUROPE 1999 52.9% 3rd region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION IV: FORMER SOVIET UNION (FSU) -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments FSU 1987 60.4% 2nd region to peak
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION V: MIDDLE EAST -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Iran 1976 44.6 3rd OPEC nation to peak Iraq 2036 24.8 OPEC Kuwait 2035 30.9 OPEC Oman 2005 43.5 Qatar 2008 35.8 OPEC Saudi Arabia 2019 29.1 OPEC Syria 1995 48.8 UAE 2026 21.2 OPEC Yemen 2006 18.2 MIDDLE EAST 2020 30.5% Has 2% of world's population
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION VI: AFRICA -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Algeria 2006 48.6 OPEC Angola 1999 38.7 Cameroon 1985 61.1 Congo 1999 35.5 Egypt 1993 63.3 Gabon 1996 47.7 Libya 1969 43.2 1st OPEC nation to peak Nigeria 2007 44.7 OPEC: "anarchy, filth, and brutality..." Tunisia 1983 63.8 Eq. Guinea 2005 14.5 AFRICA 2006 46.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
REGION VII: ASIA PACIFIC -- Nation Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments Australia 2000 50.2 Brunei 1979 63.6 China 2012 40.0 1.3 billion people India 1997/2006 (tie) 44.4 1.1 billion people Indonesia 1977 69.4 4th OPEC nation to peak Malaysia 2006 42.6 P N Guinea 1993 39.2 Vietnam 2005 22.8 Thailand 2006 25.9 ASIA PACIFIC 2010 47.8% Has 60% of world's population
------------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD -- Category Peak Year EUR Used [%] Comments OPEC 2017 35.3% 72% of world oil exports in 2000 Non-OPEC 2003 58.7% WORLD 2005 46.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
------------------------------------------------------------------------
DISCUSSION
1. 23 out of 44 nations are past-peak; 24 if you count India (i.e., 1997 & 2006 are tied).
2. A few nations that I count as "past-peak" could -- in fact -- establish new peaks in the future. Time will tell.
3. In contrast to Item 2, a few nations that are NOT counted as "past-peak", could -- in fact -- already be past-peak. Example: I forecast that Kuwait's peak will occur in 2035, however it's actual peak may turn out to be 1971 when it produced 1.1 billion barrels compared to a mere 0.8 billion barrels in 2000. Thus Kuwait would have to increase its 2000 level of production by a whopping 37% to establish a new and higher peak. This may never happen.
4. 3 out of 7 regions are past-peak, and by 2010 all regions except the Middle East will be past-peak.
5. In World Oil Forecast #1 (done in 1996 and presented at Princeton University) I forecasted that the European peak would occur in 2000. Too optimistic! It actually occurred in 1999.
6. The CAI method calls for one complete new oil forecast each year for each nation, region, and the world. In this series of forecasts, each production peak is tracked by a "phase diagram" (i.e., a graphical technique, not shown here). For example: In Forecast #1 (done in 1996) through Forecast #6 (done in 2001), I have predicted the world oil production peak six times as follows: once at year 2007, twice at 2006, and three times at 2005 (including this Forecast #6, summarized above). Thus the annual series of world oil forecasts is converging on the year 2005. That's my best forecast at this time
CONCLUSION
Industrial Civilization (IC), as it were, is now staggering at the brink of a sheer cliff so that a strong gust of ill wind (e.g., depression spook (many intuit what's happening), collapse of the Sumo Giant (Japan), the dot.com disease, resource and ethnic wars (e.g., Middle East, Macedonia, ad infinitum), boatloads of refugees, etc.) could topple the global IC at any time.
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D. of the Institute on Energy and Man is the author of the Olduvai Theory.
solutions.synearth.net/stories/storyRead...
Richard Duncan
Dr. Richard Duncan has developed an extensive model of the coming Global Hubbert Peak, Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method, using Stella® modeling software. Based on his investigations, he has proposed The Olduvai Theory of Industrial Civilization. Following are links to several of Richard Duncan's papers and letters.
http://www.hubbertpeak.com/duncan/ Heuristic Oil Forecasting Method/
World Oil Forecasting Program
User's Guide and Forecast #4
http://www.halcyon.com/duncanrc/
yippe ky yay