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SIGNS OF TENSION WITHIN NORTHERN ALLIANCE CAUSE CONCERN AMONG UN OFFICIALS

Daniel Brett | 16.11.2001 16:04

Signs of mounting tension within the Northern Alliance are causing concern among United Nations officials, as diplomats scramble to cobble together a stabilization plan for Afghanistan. The UN is striving to convene a meeting as soon as this weekend to discuss the establishment of a provisional government in Afghanistan, even as Taliban leaders vow to continue fighting.

The rout of the Taliban has left Northern Alliance troops in possession of up to 80 percent of Afghanistan's territory, including the capital Kabul and most other key cities. But according to some reports, battlefield success is causing old rivalries among Northern Alliance factions to resurface. The political vacuum created by the sudden collapse of Taliban authority is prompting various alliance factions to jockey for influence over the country's political and economic future.

Northern Alliance leaders say publicly they support the UN state-building initiative. But diplomats at UN headquarters in New York say they have received unconfirmed reports of possible clashes among Northern Alliance factions in Mazar-i-Sharif. They also say that policy differences are emerging among Northern Alliance political leaders, including Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah and President Burhanuddin Rabbani. "Abdullah is not of the same view as Rabbani," one UN diplomat told EurasiaNet without elaborating.

A senior UN official said the United Nations was struggling to obtain accurate information about conditions in northern Afghanistan. The official added that there was nothing "implausible" about the reports of clashes within Northern Alliance, which is a confederation of various militia groups comprising Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras.

"The reports that we have are all about what's happening in Mazar," the UN official said. "They (The Northern Alliance) don't have the same level of difficulty in Kabul, at least not yet. We are to some extent dependent on the same reports that other people are because we don't have any people in Mazar."

The United Nations formally recognizes Rabbani as the head of Afghanistan's government. But a UN official suggested that Rabbani's status did not entitle him to a special role in peace-building talks. The officials described Rabbani as president "by default," explaining that since 1996, when the Taliban came to power, the UN had deferred discussion on the recognition of lawful authority in the country. Rabbani's administration, which was ousted by the Taliban, was the last UN recognized government in Afghanistan.

Rabbani had been expected to arrive in Kabul on November 14, but his appearance was put off without explanation, fueling rumors of a Northern Alliance rift. Rabbani, who belongs to a Tajik faction, reportedly had sought a renewed endorsement of his authority by the UN - something that the UN has been reluctant to grant as it tries to form a broad-based provisional government.

The UN Security Council resolution adopted late on November 14 urged all member states to help promote security in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has agreed to host a meeting that seeks to work out details of a stabilization blueprint put forward by UN Special Representative for Afghanistan Lakhdar Brahimi. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

The UN intends to invite representatives from all major Afghan ethnic and tribal groups, except the Taliban, to the UAE meeting. It is unclear at this point, however, when precisely the meeting will take place, and who will attend. The UN dispatched a veteran diplomat, Francesc Vendrell, to Kabul to promote interest in the stabilization plan.

At the same time, UN officials cautioned Northern Alliance against infighting, stressing that no one ethnic group will be permitted to dominate the provisional government. UN spokesman Fred Eckhard acted specifically to diminish Tajik expectations of a disproportionately large role in building a post-Taliban order.

"The presence of the Tajik segment of the Northern Alliance in Kabul should not be seen, and is not seen by Mr. Brahimi as any claim by that faction to a prominent position in the discussions on a broad based government," Eckhard told journalists in New York.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the Northern Alliance's cohesion, as well as the lack of representation of Afghanistan's Pashtun community, UN officials admit that the Brahimi plan faces tough obstacles.

"No one has any expectations other than that it will be very difficult," the UN official said. "In some way this new situation has created a new dynamic, with new opportunities. … It's very difficult to stay ahead of the curve because things change so rapidly on the ground."

Also sure to complicate peace-building efforts is the Taliban's vow to keep fighting. In an interview with the British Broadcasting Corp., the Taliban's supreme leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, vowed that his loyalists would fight to the death.

Taliban spokesman Syed Mohammed Tayyab Agha told EurasiaNet correspondent Akhtar Jamal that the Taliban "has not been defeated." He described recent developments as a "tactical response [by the Taliban] to continued American bombing."

Sources in Pakistan tell EurasiaNet that at least 15 mid-level Taliban commanders and at least 35 al Qaeda operatives have been killed in recent US bombing raids.

Tayyab Agha indicated that Taliban units were regrouping in mountainous regions and would attempt to launch guerrilla operations. Some reports said Taliban forces intended to open an offensive to recapture the western city of Herat.

Daniel Brett
- e-mail: dan@danielbrett.co.uk
- Homepage: http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav111501.shtml